| philcski |
07-28-2009 09:24 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=2607
"A runner on first with no one out is worth .9116 runs. A successful steal of second base with no one out would bump that to 1.1811 runs, a gain of .2695 expected runs. If that runner is caught, however, the expectation--now with one out and no one on base--drops to .2783, a loss of .6333 expected runs. That loss is about 2.3 times the gain.
Not all steals come with a runner on first and no one out, of course, and there's a lot of math that goes into the 75% conclusion. Michael Wolverton covers the concept in this excellent piece. The main point is that in considering stealing bases, you have to consider both the benefit and the cost. In all but the most specific situations, outs are more valuable than bases, which is why the break-even point for successful base-stealing is so high. "
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this is the primary reason stealing bases has become a lost art. from a fan's perspective, it's an exciting play that no longer really exists.
i think the EV shouldn't be taken as straightforward as it is though, there are situations where the EV would be even more +, for instance when you have a double play candidate at the plate. you turn a potential double play into a runner on third, one out situation, which clearly has a positive EV for virtually any reasonable base stealer (1.0303 runs vs .1083 runs.) |
