People on the other board are predicting 8-1 on him. I think the O/U on his odds is somewhere around 5/2. He can win I guess, but he's a total play against.

Have you looked at the PPs for this race? I don't buy that the Colonial Turf Cup was much tougher than an allowance against older horses at Delaware. Nicanor will be 8/5 and should be 5/2.

i havent looked and have no idea what I'm talking about actually.

I Shouldnt have even posted a comment. (seriously)

Nicanor is the 7-2 morning line favorite. Battle of Hastings 4-1, Hold Me Back 5-1.

FYI, that allowance race at Delaware was a complete joke.

The 2nd place finisher, White Holiday, came back to finish a well-beaten eighth in a N1X at Monmouth on July 4. He was 1-14 prior to finishing 2nd to Nicanor.

The 3rd place finisher, Stevil, came back to finish a well-beaten third in a N1X at Belmont on his preferred surface. He was 1-15 prior to finishing 3rd to Nicanor.

The 4th place finisher, Rabbit Tracks, has not run back but has only a win against MSW company at Fair Grounds in six turf tries.

The 5th place finisher, Tatnall Street, set a slow pace in a 35k N2L claimer at Belmont on Sunday before fading to last.

The 6th place finisher, No Mesa With Me, has not run back and had been a relatively decent animal on dirt prior to the failed turf try at the hands of Nicanor.

The 7th place finisher, He's Solid Gold, has been pummeled in a N1X at Delaware and an optional claimer at Philly, both on the dirt, since losing to Nicanor. He is now 1-12 and 0-4 on turf.

The 8th place finisher, Blood Moon, was eased in a 7.5k N3L claimer at Penn National in his next start.

I think it's safe to say that the Colonial Turf Cup was vastly superior to the allowance race Nicanor exits. In terms of him beating older horses, that's exactly what Lime Rickey did two back at Belmont against a much tougher field.

I think Nicanor is a terrible bet at anything less than 8-1 and given it's a 1000% certainty he'll be less than 8-1 he'll completely beat me.

NT

THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-bt-

dave you're more then welcome to hang out with us, gonna find out tonight about my travel plans.
http://www.colonialdowns.com/track/s...ellatables.php
as far as i know those tables are still available, they don't have them as sold out yet. but i don't really see any perk for the $200 you're paying to get them, aside from a rail view, and considering they're on the turf..........

Jockey Club? somebody plans on getting there early, first come first serve for $45:eek:

-bt-

Nicanor is the clear early speed? Really? I wouldn't play him at less than 8/1 here. I like Affirmatif and Battle of Hastings.

By no means am I claiming that was a good field in the allowance race, all I am saying is that I don't buy that the Colonial Turf Cup was much better because I think the Colonial Turf Cup was a pretty crappy collection of racehorses. I don't think there is anything great about Nicanor but there isn't another horse in this field that I am buying into as a decent race horse which makes this race unbettable for me.

My friend reserved a table last year after they crossed the wire in the '08 Derby...those seats are worse though $70 :eek: :(

What about Safety Valve too, as far as speed goes.

I don't know much at all about that track, so those really slow fractions he set at Colonial aren't that impressive, but I have to imagine they will place him forwardly.

Doubtful that Florentino is not setting or with the early pace.

After reading that and thinking for a matter of seconds about the Colonial Turf Cup how can you not think Nicanor's allowance was inferior?

I'm not saying that the Colonial Turf Cup was a terrific race, but that collection of chumps Nicanor beat was ATROCIOUS. The Colonial Turf Cup was the Breeders' Cup Turf compared to that allowance race.

Affirmatif can't be a decent horse? I don't like Battle of Hastings is by any means a star or a good bet in this race, but he's a decent horse. Doesn't El Crespo or Florentino have some potential? Step back and look at these horses for what they are, mid-season 3YOs. Gio Ponti didn't look like a world beater when he was entered in this race last year.

NT

I haven't seen anything in the PPs that leads me to believe that the pace in this race will be slow. There's a shi.tload of speed.

NT

its a toss up, i get to bring my own booze/food and you get the air conditioning........i'll probably want to be in your seats after the 4th race:D

-bt-

We'll have to disagree on this one. Here were my thoughts after the Colonial Turf Cup:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...97&postcount=4

So you're going to have a tough time convincing me now that it wasn't a horrible race.

I certainly wouldn't try. We definitely need 'opinionated' players in the game.:rolleyes: It's a GOOD thing.

I don't disagree that this field looks really weak (as does the entire division), but I'm not sure what Nicanor has ever done to garner the title of "the one who sucks the least."

Looking at the the early forecast - they should provide some 'chill' to the hill by some misting tents. :D

I thought the Jefferson Cup had some decent horses that fit in well here. Florentino doesn't get away this time, but El Crespo could have a shot.

I'm not attempting to convince you that the Colonial Turf Cup was strong but that the allowance race you're comparing it to was absolutely dreadful and thus significantly worse.

All of this discussion about 3YO turf horses and their relative lack of quality should prompt all of us to give consideration to this being a Red Giant-like Va Derby and should further make even a C-list Euro worth a long look in the Secretariat.

NT