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Dunbar 05-26-2009 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
Having an opinion early on is termed 'opening the flood gates'?:zz:

Do you really think Summer Bird is the most likely winner? You could really cash in at Bodog which is offering 30-1 on Summer Bird.

--Dunbar

Danzig 05-26-2009 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK
Cant wait til Sleepy makes that awesome backstretch rail run form last to first.


here's hoping there's no one in the way, as i've seen him do that move without a clear path before.

CSC 05-26-2009 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
Do you really think Summer Bird is the most likely winner? You could really cash in at Bodog which is offering 30-1 on Summer Bird.

--Dunbar

The Belmont has seen less likely winners than SB and I liked him for awhile or perhaps more precisely after the ARK Derby, in the back of my mind I was thinking he would have been a good Preak and or Belmont horse. The Derby was probably too big a jump, too soon...He's one horse I think the distance will not hurt him and he will be a good price no doubt. If the Big 3 RA, MTB, DK run.

jwkniska 05-26-2009 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
The Belmont has seen less likely winners than SB and I liked him for awhile or perhaps more precisely after the ARK Derby, in the back of my mind I was thinking he would have been a good Preak and or Belmont horse. The Derby was probably too big a jump, too soon...He's one horse I think the distance will not hurt him and he will be a good price no doubt. If the Big 3 RA, MTB, DK run.

the added distance should suit him perfectly. He's definitely one I'm not throwing out of any exotics I'm playing.

Kasept 05-26-2009 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
The Belmont has seen less likely winners than SB and I liked him for awhile or perhaps more precisely after the ARK Derby, in the back of my mind I was thinking he would have been a good Preak and or Belmont horse. The Derby was probably too big a jump, too soon...He's one horse I think the distance will not hurt him and he will be a good price no doubt. If the Big 3 RA, MTB, DK run.

The Derby wasn't too big a jump for Summer Bird... Too big a jump for Chris Rozier, yes... but for the colt, no.

NTamm1215 05-26-2009 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
Having an opinion early on is termed 'opening the flood gates'?:zz:

I'm just not into opinions on races that are 11 days away which include a likely strong 2nd choice (if not favorite) that isn't committed and a field that is in flux overall. If Rachel doesn't go, can't that fraud Charitable Man go wire-to-wire? Or might someone drop in late that has a bit of speed? Maybe it will rain?

There are too many variables in my opinion to make a conclusive remark about a horse winning a race 11 days away.

NT

Sightseek 05-26-2009 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
I'm just not into opinions on races that are 11 days away which include a likely strong 2nd choice (if not favorite) that isn't committed and a field that is in flux overall. If Rachel doesn't go, can't that fraud Charitable Man go wire-to-wire? Or might someone drop in late that has a bit of speed? Maybe it will rain?

There are too many variables in my opinion to make a conclusive remark about a horse winning a race 11 days away.

NT

Fraud? Please expound.

NTamm1215 05-26-2009 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Fraud? Please expound.

I think his Peter Pan win looked better than it really was given some of the extenuating circumstances (trip, track condition, runner-up who hung).

NT

CSC 05-26-2009 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
The Derby wasn't too big a jump for Summer Bird... Too big a jump for Chris Rozier, yes... but for the colt, no.

Chris Rosier, now I have been making a case of not betting Jockies but he would have tested my belief system had he been named the jock for the Belmont.

CSC 05-26-2009 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
I'm just not into opinions on races that are 11 days away which include a likely strong 2nd choice (if not favorite) that isn't committed and a field that is in flux overall. If Rachel doesn't go, can't that fraud Charitable Man go wire-to-wire? Or might someone drop in late that has a bit of speed? Maybe it will rain?

There are too many variables in my opinion to make a conclusive remark about a horse winning a race 11 days away.

NT

If Rachel Alexandra doesn't run, I will be very dissapointed...To me the value of SB should be good so in this instance I have no trouble declaring him now, he's going to be on my tix anyway.

Sightseek 05-26-2009 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
I think his Peter Pan win looked better than it really was given some of the extenuating circumstances (trip, track condition, runner-up who hung).

NT

I thought he was a pretty solid two year old and the Peter Pan was a good stepping stone coming off the injury and awful Bluegrass performance.

I agree with you though that I'd be looking at early speed types with Dunkirk, Mine That Bird, Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird lining up thus far.

colt 45ss 05-26-2009 02:14 PM

the bet
 
mr hot stuff
this is his moment
and for the all erotic exotic
mr hot stuff on top of choclate candy and rachel:{>:

Sightseek 05-26-2009 02:17 PM

Anybody?

Coach Pants 05-26-2009 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by colt 45ss
mr hot stuff
this is his moment
and for the all erotic exotic
mr hot stuff on top of choclate candy and rachel:{>:

God damnit. Here I am trying to take a 3 week break from this nonsense and you had to go and post this. May the lord strike you down with AIDS.

Dunbar 05-26-2009 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
The Belmont has seen less likely winners than SB and I liked him for awhile or perhaps more precisely after the ARK Derby, in the back of my mind I was thinking he would have been a good Preak and or Belmont horse. The Derby was probably too big a jump, too soon...He's one horse I think the distance will not hurt him and he will be a good price no doubt. If the Big 3 RA, MTB, DK run.

"seen less likely winners" is a far cry from declaring SB the winner. I like the horse and would bet him at a price myself, but that's different than thinking he's the most likely winner. He could end up a good bet (or even the best bet) from a value standpoint, but it would take a few defections to make SB the most likely winner.

--Dunbar

LooseOnTheLead 05-26-2009 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
I think his Peter Pan win looked better than it really was given some of the extenuating circumstances (trip, track condition, runner-up who hung).
NT

I call that a picture perfect prep second off a long layoff.

NTamm1215 05-26-2009 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LooseOnTheLead
I call that a picture perfect prep second off a long layoff.

Yes, you're right...it was exactly what he needed in order to win. I'll bet against it happening again.

NT

blackthroatedwind 05-26-2009 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
Yes, you're right...it was exactly what he needed in order to win. I'll bet against it happening again.

NT


Me too. I don't get him at all.

colt 45ss 05-26-2009 02:48 PM

coach ouch
but its mr hot stuff you have to worry about

LooseOnTheLead 05-26-2009 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
Yes, you're right...it was exactly what he needed in order to win. I'll bet against it happening again.

NT

the fact that he won or lost means absolutely nothing to me, whats important is that it sets him up perfectly to run a career best race next time out. you cant draw it up better than this.He may not win but the most likely result for him is a new top in the Belmont, something very few horses do.GL


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