Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I like Big Drama as a horse, but the more I hear people are onto him, the more underlay-like he becomes.

What type of trip does everyone expect he sits?

If he goes to the front, which is very likely, Rachel Alexandra is not going to be far behind. And provided she runs her race, she'll move towards him on the far turn. So can Big Drama, with one sprint race under his belt this year, really go 9.5 furlongs on the lead, fend off Rachel Alexandra and anyone else who might come late?

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

NO.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think it's a tall order and a rough bet at anything less than ... 15-1 at least?

Originally Posted by booner

Hard to take Rachel Alexandra at the short price. She has the looks, and on paper should run circles around these. I won't put her on top; instead, I'll use 2 others with her.

I like Friesian Fire today. He did have an excuse last time (the hoof thing), and I like it that it's his 2nd start off that long layoff coming into the Derby. I just feel he is ripe for a big effort.

Take The Points is really intriging to me. He has been training well and is returning to dirt. The two races out west were not that bad. He will be my long shot play.

Probably box these 3 and be done with it. I won't get to see the race until late tonight. And if anyone at this reception I'm going to tells me who wins, I will punch them squarely in the face!!!

Good luck to all today and enjoy the races!!

Originally Posted by Derby73

Kentucky Derby Winner-Preakness Finish

1997: Silver Charm- 1
1998: Real Quiet- 1
1999: Charismatic-1
2000: FuPeg-2 (Beaten by Red Bullet, DNR in Derby)
2001: Monarchos-6 (the only cluncker on the list, Point Given,#5 in Derby)
2002: War Emblem-1
2003: Funny Cide-1
2004: Smarty Jones-1
2005 Giacomo-3
2006: Barbaro- DNF (likely #1)
2007: Street Sense-2 (Curlin,#3 in Derby)
2008: Big Brown-1

Hell, he could finish way back, but how can you throw out MTB in tri boxes?

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I like Big Drama as a horse, but the more I hear people are onto him, the more underlay-like he becomes.

What type of trip does everyone expect he sits?

If he goes to the front, which is very likely, Rachel Alexandra is not going to be far behind. And provided she runs her race, she'll move towards him on the far turn. So can Big Drama, with one sprint race under his belt this year, really go 9.5 furlongs on the lead, fend off Rachel Alexandra and anyone else who might come late?

Originally Posted by Left Bank

He sure could tire her out though,setting up the race for a Closer!!:eek: MTB???

Originally Posted by miraja2

Take the Points is as likely to hit the board as somebody like Papa Clem or Mine that Bird, but Take the Points will be a much better price than those two.

Originally Posted by moses

I don't know the numbers but how many of those derby winners were 50-1 shots that seemingly came out of nowhere?

Originally Posted by philcski

Some early race thoughts...

R3 MSW: like the #4 Winter Walk, #6 Wedding Scramble, and #3 Hot Bullet first turf, all at a price. First two bred for the lawn, the 4 showed some ability in both his runs on the dirt but has low key connections so the price should hold, and the 6 showed absolutely nothing in his debut but is bred for the lawn top and bottom (although Blushing John was good on both surfaces- won a Group 1 in France as well as the Hollywood Gold Cup among other races) and is sent out by a trainer who knows something or two about winning races in MD. I had no idea Cetewayo was even a sire, he's had so few starters (4, with 1 winner), but he was a damn good turfer. Of the probable favorites, #5 Stonestreet Star is already 0-8 and failed 3 times at 8/5 or less, including a terrible run at AC where the MSW competition is pretty weak, and Mythical Hero who made a nice run to be 2nd into a slow pace but only beat the #2 Pocket Patch by a half length when he was 23-1 off getting beat 3 straight times in $25k MCL's at Philly.

R4 Schafer Hcp G3: No Advantage will probably be overlooked in here, but he got a horrible ride in the CT Classic. Didn't save any ground around the turns, ran up on heels a couple times, yet still managed to only get beat 7 lengths at 51-1 (in a photo with Commentator for 4th.) Real Merchant and Cave's Valley come out of a fast race at Belmont, but how good is that really? He was soundly beaten in that awful Excelsior with no excuse, and Cave's Valley looks better around one turn than two, I think it's between the two coming out of the CT Classic.