5 now set. Join in the Dance, Miner's Escape, Charitable Man and Mr. Fantasy no longer interested, but Flying Private is added. Terrain deciding shortly, and Tesio show pony Tone It Down is now possible.

Confirmed:
1. Mine That Bird
2. Big Drama
3. Papa Clem
4. Hull
5. Flying Private
6. Take the Points

Likely/Possible:
Conservative
Sky Gate
Tone It Down
Terrain *(Decision due today)

Derby runners considering:
Pioneerof the Nile
Musket Man
General Quarters
Friesen Fire

Terrain is good for fourth, right?

That's actually not a bad way to approach the race...worked last year with Racecar Rhapsody. :)

Flying Private? Really?
I guess we shouldn't be shocked after the Going Wild nonsense from a few years ago....but come on.

You don't think 8 starts in 17 weeks is a good idea for a horse with declining form? :rolleyes:

D. Wayne Woolley Jr. Lukas isn't affraid to run them or put them in crazy spots.

Heck - sometimes they even jump up and come through and he's called a genius and stuff. Most of the time though ... it's not so pretty.

I don't think it's much of a change of plans, because the Preakness was definitely on the table right after the Derby Trial. With that, unless between now and then they had completely backed off of him not expecting to race at all again anywhere anytime soon, the change of plans doesn't bother me. It seems like was on the radar to begin with, and like you say, obviously Mine That Bird makes it a whole lot more enticing.

He and Cash Refund have been my two most exciting horses of 2009, and neither has let me down yet.

DALE ROMANS (trainer of first-place finisher Hull) – “I loved what I saw out there today. He relaxed off the pace, and when the rider asked him to run, he really exploded. He’s as good as anybody around right now. He’s opened up in all three of his races. We entered in the Lexington but we had this race as our backup. Everything had to be perfect if he ran in that race (Lexington), because he was coming back so soon after the Turfway race (on April 2), and when he drew post 12, we didn’t hesitate to scratch him and point for this. We’ll take a look and see what happens in the Derby, who goes on from there and who doesn’t. The Preakness is a possibility for him right now.”

it sounds as tho musket man will be there. but no belmont-can't say i disagree with that strategy.

Didn't Lukas have one in this weekend that surprised? Not Orthodox surprised, but surprised nonetheless?

Tone it Down? That performance on Saturday left a lot to be desired...

Just like there are(were) Golden Rules of Handicapping the Derby, the Preakness has some, too, just but a few.

The 105+ Beyer achieved in a route pre-Kentucky Derby(which only I Want Revenge ,Dunkirk and Quality Road had achieved), dips to a 104 par for the Preakness. Mine That Bird qualifies, as would Fresian Fire if he were able to run. Fresian Fire is also a big Preakness pick due to the frequency of Kentucky Derby ml and/or post time favorites returning to win the Preakness

Looking at Mine That Bird's current pp's, he either freaked in the slop or due to another reason, perhaps the crowd.

maybe he thinks the best horses in the country will not be making the race, and hull stacks up well vs who can/will show up?

I much prefer the buzzer theory. :)

Gotcha -- so basically they changed their mind twice in a week, because I am pretty positive there was another article somewhere around Sunday talking about the Preakness too.

Either way, it makes me think he'll be ready to go, since I'm not quite sure what they would have done with him in those three or four days that would make him all of the sudden rushed into the Preakness. Sounds like they had a couple options on the table and have just had a tough time deciding which one they wanted. If they had decided next Wednesday that they'd like to go, I'd be a bit more concerned.

If he loses, my guess is that it will have just about everything to do with the fact that he doesn't handle two turns well or that he just isn't quite good enough, and just about nothing to do with the fact that they went Preakness-Stephens-Preakness in a matter of less than seven days.

If I owned Hull I'd go... after that Derby result I would likely send any horse with a hint of ability. Not that I necessarily like him as a bettor, but as an owner, it makes a lot of sense.

I think my stock answer for all comments regarding horse placement will be... "Hey, if Mine That Bird can do it..."

If Hull is confirmed, I really like him in this spot at first glance.

I think Mine That Bird will repeat simply because everyone is dismissing him again. That and this 3 year old crop is suspect not on ability, but desire to win.

The derby winner should not be discounted. Just what he did on the off track, beating the best 3yos in the country by 7 lengths, should make him the post time favorite, but he won't be. All the experts will think it was a fluke, But this is no fluke. This is one talented horse.