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-   -   Derby Fever: Where 'stupid' is contagious (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29127)

brianwspencer 04-20-2009 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
Once you proclaimed that I was so convinced that I gave BBB $12 so that he could hit me a $6,840 Pick 4. I would then use that $6,840 to play ALL-ALL-ALL-Terrain. Al Stall is a killjoy.

NT

Yea, I've been pretty steadfast about this since for some time now.

Like you, I now have next to no idea how to even begin thinking about the Derby.

Kasept 04-20-2009 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
Never mind that Mine That Bird's two highest Beyer figures came on regular dirt in his last two starts.

Except when they are named "Mine That Bird", apparently.

RT,

I loved Mine That Bird last fall and going into the Breeder's Cup. But if those two 3yo races are the sum of his improvement from 2 to 3, (80-81 from 2 yo highs of 76-78), while going synthetic to dirt on top of it, things aren't promising for him to show the leap to be competitive in the Derby. Look at Just a Coincidence, West Side Bernie or Hold Me Back (if you want to see a synthetic surface improver) for patterns of healthy development in three year olds.

Merlinsky 04-20-2009 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
RT,

I loved Mine That Bird last fall and going into the Breeder's Cup. But if those two 3yo races are the sum of his improvement from 2 to 3, (80-81 from 2 yo highs of 76-78), while going synthetic to dirt on top of it, things aren't promising for him to show the leap to be competitive in the Derby. Look at Just a Coincidence, West Side Bernie or Hold Me Back (if you want to see a synthetic surface improver) for patterns of healthy development in three year olds.

I apologize for being unaware of yet more wisdom from DrugS, this regarding Hold Me Back. I personally enjoy that horse so it's great news if he totally has more upside from that race that I knew about. I've heard grumbling about his loss on dirt at 2, some from ESPN on tv I think, but clearly they were just talking of which they knew not. Did you comment on his stride recently on your show or did I get that from reading/hearing Steve Haskin?

About your first post, perhaps 'stupid' was unfair. I do question the wisdom and I don't seem to find any information that qualifies him like 'he's just now coming around mentally' or 'he's really improving'. It sounds like they're running him because he's a nice horse and they have hopes--there are worse reasons but so many horses get ruined doing that. I'm concerned enough for Dunkirk but I was watching him after the race whenever they showed him--he seemed to be plotting revenge as much as a horse could. Maybe he was just cheesed off that he was being unsaddled outside of the winner's circle.

About Atomic Rain in the Wood, I did go back and look at it, and far be it for me to be one of those knuckleheads that argues with you 10 ways to Sunday that the sky is green, so I'll admit he's a nicer seeming horse than I remember and certainly I'd be more likely to call him at least promising although not Derby-promising. I still worry that a horse with what he's shown up to now could be going in over his head and ruined. Promise only takes you so far. Why not hold out for the Preakness and let the waters part after the Derby? I don't see how you come away from the Wood run thinking 'Derby winner's circle here we come!' Maybe G1 placing here we come, but with this Derby field? So many have pulled their horses out this year, trying not to ruin them, that the last 3 or 4 slots are being eyed hungrily and suddenly folks are getting Derby fever that had resigned themselves to being on the outside looking in. I do apologize for not being more tactful in my frustration.

King Glorious 05-02-2009 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Merlinsky,

I'm surprised by this largely unfair and under-researched comment. His Remsen placing? I think you'll find half his earnings come from the deceptively good and quite courageous 4th he ran in the Wood while his stablemate was running 2nd. Comparing Atomic Rain's Derby intentions to Mine That Bird's is a gross insult to Breen and The Halls. While Atomic Rain doesn't necessarily need to go in the Derby and probably won't get in, he's Alydar compared to Mine That Bird.
And Hold Me Back's Remsen form is not in question... As DrugS has laid out a number of times in his prep analysis, the glacial pace in the Remsen was 100% responsible for him having zero chance to produce any rally.

Now playing the part of Affirmed.........Mine that Bird.

gales0678 05-02-2009 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Now playing the part of Affirmed.........Mine that Bird.


king - drugs told me to bet him , i forgot - he's better start giving me the plays the day of rather than 2 weeks before

King Glorious 05-02-2009 09:05 PM

I couldn't have had that winner in a million tries but this was the first post I thought of when he won.

Split Rock 05-02-2009 09:47 PM

With all due respect to Steve Byk (I love his horse racing show and seems like a good guy), he owes a sincere apology to the connections of Mine That Bird. While the horse appeared to have zero hope on paper, he deserved to be in based on the rules of entry.

In addition, it just goes to show how absolutely idiotic an idea it is to reduce the field size to 14. Why would you do that? Just to be able to handicap it better? I don't understand. It's ALL about the chance.

Finally, the Derby finish solidifies the fact that stiffer drug testing reveals the phony trainers (Pletcher most notably).

packerbacker7964 05-02-2009 09:57 PM

Crow Here, Get your Crow while it's hot. I've got Lemon Pepper Crow, Salt and Pepper Crow, Roasted Crow, BBQ Crow.

blackthroatedwind 05-02-2009 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packerbacker7964
Crow Here, Get your Crow while it's hot. I've got Lemon Pepper Crow, Salt and Pepper Crow, Roasted Crow, BBQ Crow.


While Steve Byk was spending his time sharing his Derby opinions, and reasoning, you made not one single post here in a week.

Until now....with this garbage.

You've got nerve, I'll give you that.

declansharbor 05-02-2009 09:59 PM

Shouldn't this line be reserved for someone that actually had an opinion on the race? Me thinks so.

declansharbor 05-02-2009 10:01 PM

Beat me to it BTW.

Didnt hear a peep from him all week, and this is what he types?

packerbacker7964 05-02-2009 10:22 PM

both of you can EAD. Been with my wife all week. You see she's got Heart Failure and in need of a new pacemaker. Some of us don't get to live online like you two. Get a real life instead of posting your garbage with 10 million post that add up to having nothing to show for your time. I can't hlp that the both of you missed every bet you made today. Go back to reading the form and not cashing once again.

blackthroatedwind 05-02-2009 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packerbacker7964
both of you can EAD. Been with my wife all week. You see she's got Heart Failure and in need of a new pacemaker. Some of us don't get to live online like you two. Get a real life instead of posting your garbage with 10 million post that add up to having nothing to show for your time. I can't hlp that the both of you missed every bet you made today. Go back to reading the form and not cashing once again.

Apology accepted.

declansharbor 05-02-2009 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packerbacker7964
both of you can EAD. Been with my wife all week. You see she's got Heart Failure and in need of a new pacemaker. Some of us don't get to live online like you two. Get a real life instead of posting your garbage with 10 million post that add up to having nothing to show for your time. I can't hlp that the both of you missed every bet you made today. Go back to reading the form and not cashing once again.

Sorry to hear about your wife. I really am.


But stop taking her pills.

You didnt let the need of the new pacemaker prevent you from going out to your local supermarket to pick up all of those crow spices and herbs and posting your menu on here.

and by the way, I've made more money in this game since the new year, than you probably have in your lifetime, and I'm still green at this game.

and lastly, rest assured that my life is far more enjoyable than your life. So put your dog down and clean up it's creampie.

hockey2315 05-02-2009 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Split Rock
Finally, the Derby finish solidifies the fact that stiffer drug testing reveals the phony trainers (Pletcher most notably).

How so, exactly? By Dunkirk falling on his face at the start?

hockey2315 05-02-2009 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packerbacker7964
both of you can EAD. Been with my wife all week. You see she's got Heart Failure and in need of a new pacemaker. Some of us don't get to live online like you two. Get a real life instead of posting your garbage with 10 million post that add up to having nothing to show for your time. I can't hlp that the both of you missed every bet you made today. Go back to reading the form and not cashing once again.

Sorry about your wife, but I can't imagine a more absurd response to what Andy and Declan said. . .

Scurlogue Champ 05-02-2009 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Apology accepted.

;)

packerbacker7964 05-02-2009 10:38 PM

Dude quit it. Your only going to get yourself worked up over a GAME. Oh I forgot you got that Book out about your betting skills. Like I said if half of you on here were half as good as you claim you'd be retired by now. Oh I've made XXX since. Start posting some $hit before it happens. And no I'm not going to go Head to Head with you on Handicaping I've got beter things to do. Now turn the lights off in Mom's Basement she needs her rest.

blackthroatedwind 05-02-2009 10:41 PM

I thought you already apologized.

packerbacker7964 05-02-2009 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I thought you already apologized.


Shouldn't you be counting your money you won today. Being that your the Greatest Handicapper since Pointgiven1985? The day I respect you and you opinion is the day I need put down.


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