I should say he was sold at public auction in '07 not last year.

Yeah - we'd already have conceded the race to him.

Yes.

And he was sold for just 17K as a yearling.

Originally I thought 8-1 would not be possible on Dunkirk due to the sheer lack of percentage points to go around. But, looking below, I think it is a pretty fair line:



The above adds-up to 130.8% which is close enough in my opinion. Obviously there are things yet to happen -- Square Eddie for example in the Lexington -- but I assumed he won with this line and I took out Theregoesjojo and Charitable Man and went down Steve's earnings list.

I made Desert Party 12-1 because a lot of public handicappers are picking him, and I think a lot of wise guy 'cappers will as well. I think he has a good shot this year, and felt that was fair.

I think would could happen on this line though is the betting will create a big separation Hold Me Back and Maafaz (who probably doesn't go, but a free $100k is hard to turn down), which will help the top group go down in price.

Don't you think his price had a lot to do with his pedigree?

Objectivity went for over $6M and Dunkirk went through the ring early enough in Secret Status' broodmare career that no one knew she wasn't getting good runners before Dunkirk.

i just don't see that the ability of an owner to pay obscene amounts of money in any equates to the purchase having tremendous ability two years after the auction.

That but there wouldn't be so much hate for a horse who ran second in the Florida Derby. IF there was a different earnings method for entry into the race, say 2-year-old races discounted, than Dunkirk would be in no problem with a second and the entire discussion surrounding him takes on a different tone.

It would go from not whether or not he should run because of this/that, but whether or not he can overcome the current deficit between Quality Road, which I think should be the topic surrounding him.

Pedigree obviously had a lot to do with it ... but I would think the nations highest priced yearling would have to look great.

That same year Zensational sold for just $20K as a yearling - and he's by UBS (Dunkirk's sire) out of a multiple stakes winning mare from a great Claibourne family.

i'm not a hater. i just think others deserve a better look for the next few weeks than dunkirk.
and i don't think he is better than several horses out there-and i think it would not be in the best interests of the horse to run him in ky, all things considered about him. if he needs easy treatment, and well-spaced races, that's what they should do with him.

I don't disagree that he probably looked good, but you've also got so many other things going on behind the scenes that yearling prices are just unreliable.

The nations highest priced yearling at public auction has a pretty good record historically speaking.

Off the top of my head - I believe Majestic Prince, Mr. Prospector, Nureyev, A. P Indy, Forestry, and Fusaichi Pegasus were all Keeneland July yearling sales toppers...

I'm definitely not saying Dunkirk is not a good horse, I think he is a very good horse.

Out of curiousity, who are the sale toppers since Fupeg?

Nice Job

I definitely not saying that him being the nations highest priced yearling in '07 means anything more than he's probably good looking and correct.

I think Godolphin has bought most of the yearling sales toppers since Fu Peg - but it's not something I follow taht closely.

I think Jalil and Mr. Sakaguchi were the only two who weren't complete and utter no ability bums...

My reference to Real Quiet was not in association with his or anyone elses auction price...


Danzig seems to have little respect for Dunkirk and at least partly her position seems to be based upon him being "slight built" ...

The point of my reference to Real Quiet was to suggest that slightly built horses should not necessarilly be ruled out.

Gato del Sol did. Skipped it because he needed more distance, then the Belmont came up sloppy and Conquistador Cielo skipped along on the lead (Gato was second).

Two words for you - Blue Burner.

It isn't that he ran second; it was the way he ran second.

What?!

Blue Burner and Dunkirk, is that the comparison we're going to make?

but real quiet didn't also exhibit a need to be treated lightly. dunkirk must not be a hearty individual based on his lack of racing at two, and only three starts in his entire career. the slightly built part isn't the problem-his inability to withstand the rigors of training and racing is the problem-especially when you consider the race they are potentially pointing him towards.

I'm not picking Dunkirk to win I don't think, but Big Brown was just as lightly raced last year was he not? The argument you're making is fine, however, it's too broad to apply to all horses. And simply put, it's a rigorous test for all horses.