The problem with running back in the Lexington is that THEN he's got two weeks to the Derby. When has Todd manaed to win a major race off 2 weeks? It's possible but improbable.

I really hope they don't go with Big Drama. He is what he is, 8.5f is probably his max unless he can get an easy lead. If he were mine, the Met Mile would be the goal....

I don't think Fawkes or Queen will get Derby Fever.

remember when he was not going to run bluegrass cat back, and everyone fussed, so he changed his mind? he lost to bernardini, and suffered an injury as well.
i don't think dunkirk runs again before the derby.

That's very bold of you.

:tro:

Updated Earnings (3/28)
 

Red means they aren't going (IMO)

1 Regal Ransom $1,250,000
2 Square Eddie $774,981
3 Pioneerof the Nile $743,250
4 Desert Party $641,667
5 Quality Road $600,000
6 Friesan Fire $570,465
7 Rachel Alexandra $413,001
8 Terrain $410,830
9 Old Fashioned $330,000
10 I Want Revenge $324,000
11 Hold Me Back $288,000
12 West Side Bernie $235,160
13 Chocolate Candy $220,000
14 Bittel Road $211,000
15 Musket Man $200,000
16 Capt. Candyman Can $186,945
17 The Pamplemousse $180,000
17 Win Willy $180,000
19 Papa Clem $160,000
20 Charitable Man $150,000
20 Dunkirk $150,000
22 Mine That Bird $138,705
23 Theregoesjojo $133,063
24 Beethoven $132,494
25 General Quarters $130,645
26 Flying Private $94,000
27 El Crespo $90,000
27 Flying Pegasus $90,000
30 Giant Oak $74,256
31 Join in the Dance $67,500
32 Hello Broadway $63,860
33 Imperial Council $50,000
34 Proceed Bee $47,000
35 Feisty Suances $40,000
35 Massone $40,000
35 Sumo $40,000
35 Take the Points $40,000
39 Stately Character $37,500
40 Bear's Rocket $36,000
42 Justdontcallmejeri $30,000
42 Poltergeist $30,000
44 Nowhere to Hide $27,000
45 Buzzin and Dreamin $25,000
46 Jeranimo $24,000
46 Mr. Hot Stuff $24,000
46 Rendezvous $24,000
49 Parade Clown $23,500
50 Bee Cee Cee $20,000
50 Patena $20,000
52 Captain Cherokee $15,000
53 Flat Out $12,500
53 Masala $12,500
55 He's Really Big $12,000
56 Kelly Leak $9,000

I'm really expecting Stardom Bound to be entered and scratched by IEAH, if for no other reason than to try and keep Dunkirk out if he's still on the bubble come entry time.

Done. Reason for posting was to show how Dunkirk really has a reasonable shot at already getting in. He has to fade 5 races (unless someone gets nuts and tries causing problems from a race like the Translyvannia on Friday)

If horses like Old Fashioned, POTN, Papa Chem, Grapefruit, Freisan Fire, and Terrian run well, Dunkirk is in, but if they don't then he is screwed

Why? Is there some feud between Coolmore and IEAH?

O'Neill has said he's training Eddie for the Derby.

McLaughlin said that with a good effort in the Blue Grass, Charitable Man WILL go.

Looking at the list, the one's with a legit chance of moving up include Imperial Council, Take the Points, Join in the Dance and possibly Flying Pegasus. They wont need to win their last preps either.
Wood $750k 1st $450k, 2nd $150k
Sa Derby Same
Blue Grass Same
Ill Derby $500k 1st $300k 2nd $100k

That's alot of money out there for horses that have some graded earnings already looking to leap frog over a few that are not running back. Even the Lexington for $325k meaning the winner gets $195k and 2nd gets $$65k.

eagles dont worry about flies

Can't rule out CHARITABLE MAN. He's scheduled for The Blue Grass.

Not because there is any fued but I'd think that anyone that watched the Florida Derby would have to consider Dunkirk as a horse that could be a factor and since they'll have I Want Revenge in there and they could possibly help to keep Dunkirk out, I wouldn't be surprised at all.

I doubt that by Derby time Dunkirk will be on the cusp as he is now. Unless he's #21 (or 20 if Mufaaz goes) entering and scratching Stardom Bound won't help.

Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings for Major Contenders (through 03/31/09)

1 Regal Ransom bin Suroor, Saeed $1,250,000
2 Square Eddie O'Neill, Doug $774,981
3 Pioneerof the Nile Baffert, Bob $743,250
4 Desert Party bin Suroor, Saeed $641,667
5 Quality Road Jerkens, James $600,000
6 Friesan Fire Jones, J. Larry $570,465
7 Terrain Stall, Albert $410,830
8 Old Fashioned Jones, J. Larry $330,000
9 I Want Revenge Mullins, Jeff $324,000
10 Hold Me Back Mott, Bill $288,000
11 West Side Bernie Breen, Kelly $235,160
12 Chocolate Candy Hollendorfer, Jerry $220,000
13 Bittel Road Pletcher, Todd $211,000
14 Musket Man Ryan, Derek $200,000
15 Crowded House (GB) Meehan, Brian $195,020
16 The Pamplemousse Canani, Julio $180,000
17 Win Willy Robertson, McLean $180,000
18 Papa Clem Stute, Gary $160,000
19 Charitable Man McGlaughlin, Kiaran $150,000
20 Dunkirk Pletcher, Todd $150,000

21 Mine That Bird Woolley, Bennie $138,705
22 Theregoesjojo McPeek, Ken $133,063
23 General Quarters McCarthy, Tom $130,645
24 Munnings Pletcher, Todd $105,000
25 Flying Private Lukas, D. Wayne $94,000
26 Cribnote Violette, Rick $90,000
27 Flying Pegasus Nicks, Ralph $90,000
28 Join in the Dance Pletcher, Todd $67,500
29 Imperial Council McGaughey, Shug $50,000
30 Procede Bee Gestes, Terry $47,000
31 Atomic Rain Breen, Kelly $40,000
32 Take the Points Pletcher, Todd $40,000
33 Feisty Suances Vienna, Darrell $40,000
34 Bear's Rocket Baker, Reade $36,000
35 Poltergeist VonHemel, Donnie K. $30,000
36 Lime Rickey Alexander, Frank $30,000
37 Uno Mas Asmussen, Steve $28,000
38 Gone Astray McGaughey, Shug $27,500
39 Nowhere to Hide Zito, Nick $27,000
40 Rendezvous Hollendorfer, Jerry $24,000
41 Jeranimo Pender, Michael $24,000
42 Parade Clown Ball, Katherine $23,500
43 Patena Dutrow, Rick $20,000
44 Soul Warrior Asmussen, Steve $18,000
45 Ventana Baffert, Bob $16,600
46 Captain Cherokee Asmussen, Steve $15,000
47 Brave Victory Zito, Nick $14,833
48 Al Khali Pletcher, Todd $0
49 Mayor Marv Baffert, Bob $0
50 Omniscient Asmussen, Steve $0

This should be the updated list after today's races...


1 Regal Ransom bin Suroor, Saeed $1,250,000
2 Pioneer of the Nile Baffert, Bob $1,193,250
3 Square Eddie O'Neill, Doug $774,981
4 I Want Revenge Mullins, Jeff $774,000
5 Desert Party bin Suroor, Saeed $641,667
6 Quality Road Jerkens, James $600,000
7 Friesan Fire Jones, J. Larry $570,465
8 Musket Man Ryan, Derek $485,000
9 Terrain Stall, Albert $410,830
10 West Side Bernie Breen, Kelly $385,160
11 Chocolate Candy Hollendorfer, Jerry $370,000
12 Old Fashioned Jones, J. Larry $330,000
13 Hold Me Back Mott, Bill $288,000
14 Bittel Road Pletcher, Todd $211,000
15 Crowded House (GB) Meehan, Brian $195,020
16 The Pamplemousse Canani, Julio $180,000
17 Win Willy Robertson, McLean $180,000
18 Papa Clem Stute, Gary $160,000
19 Charitable Man McGlaughlin, Kiaran $150,000
20 Dunkirk Pletcher, Todd $150,000

21 Mine That Bird Woolley, Bennie $138,705
22 Theregoesjojo McPeek, Ken $133,063
23 General Quarters McCarthy, Tom $130,645
24 Munnings Pletcher, Todd $105,000
25 Flying Private Lukas, D. Wayne $94,000
26 Cribnote Violette, Rick $90,000
27 Flying Pegasus Nicks, Ralph $90,000
28 Mr. Hot Stuff Harty, Eoin $90,000
29 Imperial Council McGaughey, Shug $75,500
30 Atomic Rain Breen, Kelly $75,500
31 Join in the Dance Pletcher, Todd $67,500
32 Procede Bee Gestes, Terry $47,000
33 Take the Points Pletcher, Todd $85,000
34 Feisty Suances Vienna, Darrell $40,000
35 Bear's Rocket Baker, Reade $36,000
36 Poltergeist VonHemel, Donnie K. $30,000
37 Lime Rickey Alexander, Frank $30,000
38 Uno Mas Asmussen, Steve $28,000
39 Gone Astray McGaughey, Shug $27,500
40 Nowhere to Hide Zito, Nick $27,000
41Rendezvous Hollendorfer, Jerry $24,000
42 Jeranimo Pender, Michael $24,000
43 Parade Clown Ball, Katherine $23,500
44 Patena Dutrow, Rick $20,000
45 Soul Warrior Asmussen, Steve $18,000
46 Ventana Baffert, Bob $16,600
47 Captain Cherokee Asmussen, Steve $15,000
48 Brave Victory Zito, Nick $14,833

Not that it matters, but where's Giant Oak?

I think Giant Oak was at 74,000 and he
got 2nd....

Jeez, he probably passed Dunkirk.
Atomic Rain and Imperial Council also.
No. Prize money dwindles thank god.

32 Atomic Rain $77,500 William L. S. Landes III, Laura Landes & Sarah Landes (KY) Kelly Breen George and Lori Hall
34 Imperial Council $72,500 G. Watts Humphrey Jr. (KY) Shug McGaughey Sequoia Racing 5th, Wood Memorial