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-   -   9/14: ALDEBUTANTE (Belmont) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24956)

Kasept 09-12-2008 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman
From the looks of weather in NY this weekend, it may end up off the turf.

That would be fine.

Scav 09-12-2008 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman
From the looks of weather in NY this weekend, it may end up off the turf.

Might end up being a blessing if they overfill.

She is bred out the ass for the slop.

pointman 09-12-2008 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Might end up being a blessing if they overfill.

She is bred out the ass for the slop.

Sounds good to me. If I am not mistaken, unless at least one is entered as MTO, there will be at least one AE if there are 13 entered. Good luck to all Dee Tee'rs on this draw!

Bigsmc 09-12-2008 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Might end up being a blessing if they overfill.

She is bred out the ass for the slop.

Scratch it down to about 6 fillies over the slop....

Scav 09-12-2008 12:36 PM

5th race, drew the 11 hole...I think...

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...-BEL-20080914D

And if I read this right, we will need a jockey if the 14 draws in

And she is the #10 in the program, I think

Lots of I thinks...Confusing overnight

Bigsmc 09-12-2008 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
5th race, drew the 11 hole...I think...

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...-BEL-20080914D

And if I read this right, we will need a jockey if the 14 draws in

And she is the #10 in the program, I think

Lots of I thinks...Confusing overnight

All of your I thinks are correct.

Scav 09-12-2008 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
All of your I thinks are correct.

I am turning into a knowledge MACHINE!!

Payson Dave 09-12-2008 01:24 PM

I've seen several of these training up here all summer...this not going to be an easy spot..:zz:

Kasept 09-12-2008 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave
I've seen several of these training up here all summer...this not going to be an easy spot..:zz:

Were you expecting one?

Payson Dave 09-12-2008 01:36 PM

It would not have broken my heart to have avoided a couple of these....

Kasept 09-12-2008 01:44 PM

5th (3:07)

6 Furlongs (Turf) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $52,000

1 Miss World Hill C 118
3 Just Livin a Dream Maragh R 118 L
4 Gold Record Espinoza J L 118 FTL
1A Driven Snow Garcia Alan 118
5 Nan Prado E S 118 L
6 Warm Springs Girl Coa E M 118 L
7 Buck Sign Rodriguez R R 118 FTL
2 Green Pond Velazquez J R 118 FTL
8 Pumpkin Shell Velasquez C 118 L
9 Amber's Edge Sanchez J 118 L
10 Aldebutante Migliore R 118 FTL
11 Paradise Bound Castellano J J 118 FTL
AE 12 Miakoda Velazquez J R 118 FTL
AE 13 Pull Dancer Migliore R 118 FTL
MTO 2B Gemswick Park Velazquez J R 118 FTL

A-Coupled: Miss World and Driven Snow
B-Coupled: Green Pond and Gemswick Park

Kasept 09-12-2008 02:16 PM

DRF GRADED ENTRIES
FIFTH RACE Probable Post 3:07 EDT


6 Furlongs. Turf. 2-Year-Olds. Fillies. Maiden Special Weight. Purse: $52,000


2 Just Livin a Dream Maragh R 118 9-5
5 Nan Prado E S 118 5-2
15 Gemswick Park Velazquez J R 118 3-1
6 Warm Springs Girl Coa E 118 7-2
10 Amber's Edge Sanchez J 118 9-2
12 Paradise Bound Castellano J 118 15-1
13 Miakoda Velazquez J R 118 15-1
14 Pull Dancer Migliore R 118 15-1
8 Green Pond Velazquez J R 118 20-1
11 Aldebutante Migliore R 118 20-1
1 Miss World Hill C 118 30-1
4 Driven Snow Garcia A 118 30-1
3 Gold Record Espinoza J L 118 50-1
7 Buck Sign Rodriguez R R 118 50-1
9 Pumpkin Shell Velasquez C H 118 50-1
Coupled: Miss World and Driven Snow; Green Pond and Gemswick Park

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-12-2008 02:35 PM

good post imo..:$: :$: :$:

Danzig 09-12-2008 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
I am turning into a knowledge MACHINE!!

change your name to magic eight ball...we'll flip you around and ask questions.

NoCarolinaTony 09-12-2008 03:28 PM

Steve,

Now we need the stable to develop a smart betting pattern. Usually our stable wacks the horse down to even money first flash. Can we try to develop a strategy so that we don't kill her odds? I might be talking out of turn here but the DT stable clan is usually fast and furious with their money.

NC Tony

Scav 09-12-2008 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoCarolinaTony
Steve,

Now we need the stable to develop a smart betting pattern. Usually our stable wacks the horse down to even money first flash. Can we try to develop a strategy so that we don't kill her odds? I might be talking out of turn here but the DT stable clan is usually fast and furious with their money.

NC Tony

Yes, I agree. I would like to instill the "NO BETTING DT RUNNERS UNTIL 10 minutes to post" rule

If you aren't by your computer. DO A CONDITIONAL WAGER for ZERO MINUTES TO POST.

For the record, I have instilled a rule on myself "NO BETTING ANY OF CHUCKS RUNNERS AGAIN" to prevent riducule on myself and injustice to his owners :)

Kasept 09-12-2008 03:50 PM

DRF CLOSER LOOK
by Jim Kachulis


Miss World
Long series of half-mile breezes on view; her sire was 4 of 8, a winner of 173K; offspring of Berstein have won turf debut 14 out of 85 times; the dam lost only start and this is her only foal to race.

Just Livin a Dream
Tough beat last time in a quick affair; the sire was 7 of 14, a winner of 666K; dam was unraced; siblings include Presious Passion, winner of the G1 United Nations Stakes and 960K overall.

Gold Record
Gate breeze was fair she has hails form sprint specialist Concorde's Tune who banked 242K, whose offspring have won turf debut 15 of 166 times; the mom was a winner of 2 turf races and 40K; sib to Golden Concorde, 131K earner.

Driven Snow
Sired by Storm Cat who banked 570K in his career; his descendants have won initial grass assignment 69 out of 394 times; the dam was a 6-time turf winner who compiled 1.25 million; no winning sibs to report.

Nan
Closed with a rush in maiden voyage on the green then faded in main track try; her sire was a winner of 1.17 million while the dam won 17K; sib to 139K earner Heaven's Prospect; a yielding course would be an obvious plus.

Warm Springs Girl
Even first effort while favored; her sire was an excellent sprinter who banked 818K; the dam was a winner of 2 turf races and 202K; sib to Marastani who banked just under a half-million, nearly all of which was earned on the grass.

Buck Sign
Adds Lasix after dull debut in the mud; the sire was 8 of 18, 682K earner (all victories on the turf) whose offspring have won grass debut 2 of 53 times; the dam was 2 of 6, 27K earner and this is her sole foal to start.

Green Pond
Her sire was talented, a winner of 591K whose descendants have won turf debut 19 out of 165 times; the dam was a winner of 31K and this is her only foal to race.

Pumpkin Shell
Failed as the chalk last time after promising first run; her sire was a winner of 1.39 million, victorious in the G1 Haskell, whose offspring are zero for 4 in turf debuts; the dam was 2 of 6, 104K earner; sib to Pays to Dream, 377K earner.

Amber's Edge
Much more prompting speed exhibited second out; her sire was a winner of 1.26 million while the dam involved was a 3-time turf winner, 95K earner; no winning sibs to highlight.

Aldebutante
Begins with a bullet breeze; her sire banked a total of 1.73 million whose descendants have won first grass race 1 of 19 times; the dam was zero for 5; sib to 6K winner View of Roses.


Paradise Bound
She hails from Pulpit who banked a total of 728K who never tried the green; offspring of that sire have won grass debut 10 percent of the time; the dam was a winner of 164K, failed in sole turf try and this is her sole foal to race.

Miakoda
Her sire won 4 of 5 lifetime, 616K including victory in G1 Santa Anita Derby but Indian Charlie never tried the green; his offspring have won first grass try 18 out of 136 times; the dam was blanked in 12 starts and this is her lone foal to make it to the gate.

Pull Dancer
See Paradise Bound, above, for information about same sire; the dam involved was unraced; no winning sibs to report.

Gemswick Park
Hoping for more rainfall (a distinct possibility if forecasters are correct); comes back with Lasix after solid first run at huge odds; the sire won the Breeders' Cup Sprint and 1.25 million; dam was a winner of 104K; sib to Queen's College, 66K earner; dangerous if Mother Nature cooperates.

Benny Leger 09-12-2008 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoCarolinaTony
Steve,

Now we need the stable to develop a smart betting pattern. Usually our stable wacks the horse down to even money first flash. Can we try to develop a strategy so that we don't kill her odds? I might be talking out of turn here but the DT stable clan is usually fast and furious with their money.

NC Tony

Is it possible that the 25-50 partners could influence the betting pools at tracks such as Kee, CD, Sar, Bel and AP ? I was thinking it was the thousands of folks that visit Derby Trail everyday and follow the progress of our runners on line.

Swale84 09-12-2008 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoCarolinaTony
Steve,

Now we need the stable to develop a smart betting pattern. Usually our stable wacks the horse down to even money first flash. Can we try to develop a strategy so that we don't kill her odds? I might be talking out of turn here but the DT stable clan is usually fast and furious with their money.

NC Tony

Definitely not talking out of turn on this. The DT runners do get hit hard and early. While the win odds often creep up after the first flash, i have no doubt that the bigger impact is in the exotic pools, where people will use a horse that is getting "smart money" that they otherwise would have ignored

Tom LaVoice 09-12-2008 09:29 PM

Where are we going to meet
 
Just wanted to check with everyone on where we are planning on meeting on Sunday for the races. We will be leaving Pittsburgh tomorrow morning and would like to know where to meet everyone at Belmont. Looks like the weather is going to be fine for our race and I am guessing it will be on the turf. Know it will be a tough challenge for our girl out of the 11 hole but hopefully a safe and good trip. Looking forward to meeting all on Sunday.

Tom LaVoice


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