tiagos owner/trainer etc are west coasters. of course they want to win at home. not everyone thinks the east coast is the place to be.

we usually see the same things said when there are good horses back east, and not much on the west coast. just seems this year there are more horses on the same level out west.

HOW About some picks ?
goose is tough... the top 2 are both special, but if music note takes crazy money, i will go with proud spell.

frost giant, harlington and merchant marine in the suburban

JCS is right, Tiago could have shipped in to NY and crushed these bums. The older division is shameful right now!!

[quote=ateamstupid]Good point. The idea that one of those nags is going to be a Grade I winner makes me throw up a little bit in my mouth. and Music
sounds like WONDER LADY ANN L!! LMFAO

I agree with you on Merchant Marine, but probably not the other two.

Merchant Marine / AP Arrow.

When horses are scratched from NW3x races for G1's and it looks like they may have a shot, it's a BAD bunch.

its a race def. worth taking a stab in, i will go 3 deep in pick 4, and it will be the 3 i mentioned above...
the giant shoud like the distance and will be on the lead, and harlington should be strong second back

Why is Tiago clearly better on dirt? He beat second rate sprinter King of the Roxy in the Santa Anita Derby (at nearly 30-1) and IIRC wasn't everyone laughing at the prospect of ex-turf horse Heatseeker running even a remotely good race in the Oaklawn precisely because it was on dirt? Tiago only beat him by a head.

Aside from that, you have outclassed efforts in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and BC Classic to hang your hat on as far as his dirt form goes. At least he was placing in the Strub Series all winter despite unfavorable pace scenarios (as opposed to unfavorable surfaces).

Furthermore, when has he done anything in a race beyond 9f? He should have gone in the Met Mile if anything. I suppose the Saratoga races are within his distance range, but I'd be willing to take a stand against him in the Suburban and certainly wouldn't anticipate him winning like an odds-on horse even if he did get it done.

I believe CQ had a sinus infection and is now just back in training. TP was planning on the Foster, but couldn't make it with him.

What has Tiago done on synthetic to make you think he's better on the fake stuff?

I think Harlington has a very good chance to trail the field.

wrong, who is your pick then ?

Didn't say he was better on that synthetics, but his wins in the Swaps and Goodwood certainly suggest he's more than capable on the stuff in top company (relatively speaking).

Basically, I'm questioning his class more than anything. He's obviously versatile when it comes to surfaces and I don't see any clear evidence that he moves up dramatically on conventional dirt.

Even though he doesn't win too terribly often, A.P. Arrow has quite a nice record - on the board in 17 of 23 starts, nearly a million and a half in earnings, has run decently vs good horses. Finished lapped on Asiatic Boy and Well Armed in Dubai, beat Political Force (who won this race last year) going 9f at GP, lapped on Corinithian at 9.5f, 2 behind Invasor in the Donn last year. He's not disgraced himself running vs. G1 winners and if he can get over the trip to Dubai as well as Curlin did, he shouldn't have much trouble with the n2x horses in here.

Yes, but when has he asserted his superiority when running against Grade 3 and allowance types?

Aside from the Clark, which I don't recall the race specifically, he's always struck me as a horse that finds a way to lose (or simply not come with a winning bid) no matter what the conditions.

he will not win this race. WILL NOT, another clunk up 2 or 3 at best

he has a far better chance of winning than perfect drip.

What will post time odds be on Rising Moon?

Doubt he'll be much with Dutrow and that huge tomlinson. . . 4-1?