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-   -   Why Andy Beyer is a Legend (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22781)

docicu3 05-26-2008 10:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi_im_god
it's not the $9. it's the 2 hours of your life.

and much as i respect the 2 andy's, i'm pretty sure you don't want them calling you every time they think they have an angle.

Yeah it would be hell on the cell phone bill taking both of those call as they occur about once every six months....passing races when you should is like winning for these guys.

docicu3 05-26-2008 10:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Andy Beyer can walk faster than any living human
Would that be at the 2F distance or the mile?

MISTERGEE 05-26-2008 10:24 PM
hey thats the same guy that catched the pedophiles

docicu3 05-26-2008 10:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Huh?

Andy Beyer doesn't strike me as a guy who makes many "huge" plays a year.
Serling seems to preach "pick your spots" or don't play races where form is suspect or Maiden races or first timers or turf sprints and the list just goes on.

Both Beyer and BTW seem to be about realizing that " you can beat a race but you can't likely beat the races" if you play every race on a card or multiple cards in this era of simulcast. My instincts tell me that Andy Beyer probably says that same thing to BTW fairly infrequently. The phone isn't going to be ringing Andy to Andy for huge bets very frequently. These guys win because they don't play to play but only when they have an edge for sure which is less often than most of us think.

hi_im_god 05-26-2008 10:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by docicu3
Andy Beyer doesn't strike me as a guy who makes many "huge" plays a year.
Serling seems to preach "pick your spots" or don't play races where form is suspect or Maiden races or first timers or turf sprints and the list just goes on.

Both Beyer and BTW seem to be about realizing that " you can beat a race but you can't likely beat the races" if you play every race on a card or multiple cards in this era of simulcast. My instincts tell me that Andy Beyer probably says that same thing to BTW fairly infrequently. The phone isn't going to be ringing Andy to Andy for huge bets very frequently. These guys win because they don't play to play but only when they have an edge for sure which is less often than most of us think.

as much as i respect the 2 andy's i stiil occasionally take the cigar out of my mouth.

blackthroatedwind 05-26-2008 10:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by docicu3
Andy Beyer doesn't strike me as a guy who makes many "huge" plays a year.
Serling seems to preach "pick your spots" or don't play races where form is suspect or Maiden races or first timers or turf sprints and the list just goes on.

Both Beyer and BTW seem to be about realizing that " you can beat a race but you can't likely beat the races" if you play every race on a card or multiple cards in this era of simulcast. My instincts tell me that Andy Beyer probably says that same thing to BTW fairly infrequently. The phone isn't going to be ringing Andy to Andy for huge bets very frequently. These guys win because they don't play to play but only when they have an edge for sure which is less often than most of us think.
I can safely say I agree with very little of this.

You do seem to try to interpret a lot of information that really isn't there. This post was just a fun story and a little kick to all those that make silly claims that Beyer is a lousy horseplayer.

docicu3 05-27-2008 03:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I can safely say I agree with very little of this.

You do seem to try to interpret a lot of information that really isn't there. This post was just a fun story and a little kick to all those that make silly claims that Beyer is a lousy horseplayer.

Well quite frankly this is written using the information you provide over several years now. You have said on many occasions that you are not playing certain races or that learning how not to bet good money on bad races was the key to being successful on Byk's show and similiar things on You Bet or your Toga Touts in the summer.

We have never met in person but if you hear, read, or watch someone several
hundred if not a thousand times on line,in print or TV it's not that much of a stretch to see patterns and thoughts that are repeated over and over. Inference is the substance of handicapping is it not?

Some of what you say about racing is useful IMO, some of it isn't. I have learned things from some of your successes and made money playing against your opinion when the data isn't there to support it.

Beyer's Derby handicapping is boyish folklore that doesn't negate the place the man has in the history of the sport. If he's burning your phone with "huge bets" weekly I stand corrected but like Haskin "huge wagering" is not likely the focus of Mr Beyer's daily life pertaining to racing IMO but it is just that, an opinion.

You want to disagree Andy that's fine, your entitled to your own opinion like anybody else, just keep posting those contrary handicapping opinions here, I can't possibly thank you enough for the help they provide.

Dunbar 05-27-2008 04:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
As many of you know, Andy Beyer went to South America this winter to take a stab at South American racing. He spent hours making figs for their races and was unfortunately faced with a huge takeout and miniscule pools that made real wagering virtually impossible. But, while it was a great exercise and a fun time, until today it was also a financial waste of time.

While riding the train out to Belmont today I got a call from Andy telling me he was making a huge bet at Belmont. Now, this is the time that I would usually be smart to hang up and tell him I lost service, but recklessly I allowed him to go further. In the second race, an extraordinarily weak maiden race, Andy told me that #4 Emotival was his huge bet. Three races back in Argentina Emotival had finished a close third and Andy had given him a figure of 77 which towered over today's field. Two back when he finished fifth at 1 1/8 miles ( today's race was a mile ) the horse had been right there in midstretch and last time when he faltered badly at 1 1/4 miles he had been scorched in a torrid speed duel. He said he was fully confident in the 77 figure and considering today's field he was sending it in. That was good enough for me and I followed suit.

Emotival, if you don't know, paid $21 after holding off the odds on favorite....and Beyer was repaid for his hours of work in preparation for his South American adventure. At a time when having an edge using speed figures is virtually non-existant, Andy Beyer did the near impossible, and for a few minutes turned back the clock.
Good followup to Beyer's S. American misadventure. It's a good example of how putting in some solid work time can pay dividends at unexpected times later on.

--Dunbar

3kings 05-27-2008 05:07 AM
BTW,

Can you quickly go over your money management on this race? Not the amounts, but how you used your information to maximise your profit. Straight bet, exacta, multi race wagers, etc..... I believe this is a part of the game that many people, including myself, struggle with.

Scav 05-27-2008 01:07 PM
My guess on how Andy played it
 
1) Singled in a P4 ticket that $60
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less
4) Win money

10 pnt move up 05-27-2008 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
If I had to take a guess, I'd say the standard $20 to show.
000000000000000000

GBBob 05-27-2008 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
1) Singled in a P4 ticket that $60
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less
4) Win money
5) Find a teller at Arlington who knows how to punch in any of those

the_fat_man 05-27-2008 01:10 PM
An interesting hypothesis would be if
the horse were running on SUN, when he does the NYRA show:

would he have given the horse out?

Scav 05-27-2008 01:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
An interesting hypothesis would be if
the horse were running on SUN, when he does the NYRA show:

would he have given the horse out?
Hell no he wouldn't have given the horse out, he might have 'mentioned' him as a price suck up play or something, but information like that comes around every 3-4 years now.......

All I ask is I GET ONE of them, and the horse actually runs like this one did :)

hockey2315 05-27-2008 01:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
1) Singled in a P4 ticket that $60
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less
4) Win money
You really think that's how he played it?

Scav 05-27-2008 01:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
You really think that's how he played it?
If I had $500, I would have played it this way

1) Singled in a P4 ticket that (1x3x4x5) ($60)
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses (x2) ($120)
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less ($10 on top, $5 behind) ($75)
4) Win money ($245)

Total of $500


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