Thanks for this analysis of Tomcito's South American races. It's often a complete guess as to these Grade I races, some do come up here and gel

He has only run one race over here and that was off of a pretty long layoff. He ran a respectable third there but was generally uninspiring.
Overall I thought his performance at Gulfstream was decent enough given the circumstances and I could see him being a potential horse to use on the bottom of exotics if he makes it to the Derby.
I think it is just too early to say whether he will be a claimer or a stakes winner over here yet, and unfortunately we won't really learn anything about his dirt ability in the Lexington. If he does make it to the Derby, I couldn't fault people for including him on deep tickets.

Pretty much.

Here's one...


http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...hlight=tomcito

that was impressive IMO...i mean he was only 2, beating olders... do are horses ever do that here ?

Of course War Pass would look better at Beulah, but Beulah horses do not hit the board in G1 races, period ...
While it is hard to assess Peruvian G1s, traditionally South American horses of graded caliber there have done well here ...
Tomcito is the only horse to have run in and won G1 races at 10 and 12 furlongs ... He stays the course ....
His speed and class were questionable, and his first here off a layoff was acceptable but not inspiring ...
As far as his speed, he runs like a tilted Cuisinart, but he works faster than these bums do---and perhaps faster than they race ... Three furlongs in 34 and change ???? An ordinary six furlong work finishing the last eighth in 11 and change ???? The speed is there ...
I remain interested in this guy, both for his Cinderella story---bought for 7 grandish---the foreign intrigue, the fact that he stays, and these gaudy works ...
This year's lot of Derby horses are all vulnerable for various reasons ... And it is undeniable that they are generally slow and have no true finishing kick ... Nor do most look like anything over a mile and an eighth--to be generous---is anything but a stretch ...
Tomcito, IMO, is worthy of, at least, consideration ...

Don't you think it is at least possible that he will move forward off of his start in the Florida Derby given the fact that it was his first off a layoff? Sure he passed a lot of tired horses at Gulfstream, but there will probably be a lot of tired horses in Louisville (and in future 10f races) too. Who knows if he'll even make it to that race, but there are always a lot of horses nearly walking in the final furlong of the Derby, and it doesn't seem at all likely that he will be one of those.
At this point he is certainly an unlikely winner, but I think his Florida Derby performance might be slightly better than many are giving him credit for. If he takes a step forward off of that race - which certainly seems possible - I don't see why he might not be at least a contender for a minor share.

Those are also my beliefs ... And you aren't kidding that there will be a lot of tired horses in the Derby---we have already seen the stagger fest at 9furlongs .... And those sparkling nearly 14 second last eighths ...
Since I do not bet, I can amuse myself without financial consideration .... And I definately see him as a contender, and would love to see him stay on past the pretenders to a victory ... I believe he will be sharper nextout--he needs to be ...
I am old enough to remember the same claptrap spewed over Canonero II ... It was a somewhat similar story---a somewhat similar ending would be amusing and satisfying at least to me, wagering aside ...

I remember the Canonero story well, too. Actually, one of my favorites. I'll be interested to see how he fares this weekend.

lol dam !!!
but really hoss, i honestly am starting to value your opinion, your a smart kid... kinda like me !! but anyway i dont think tomcito is great or anything, but i think he could be a lot better then your giving him credit for

Guess I am amusing you ... Shockingly, I have bet on occassion---shockingly on horses, though not regularly ... In fact my first winning wager was with a guy in 6th grade on our Derby choices ... I won ...
I have also bet on myself--notably a rare sportscar and 5 gs ... Did not lose either ...
I am disinclined to bet but rarely after a binge at the Spa a decade or so ago ...
But I am occassionally inclined to bet on a Scrabble game ... I will bet a grand on myself to beat you silly before I put 20 bucks on Tomcito to win, but that does not preclude me being interested in him, thank you ...

He could be, but his next race is on poly, so I don't know if it will tell us anything useful regarding how he has progressed from the Florida Derby, or if he actually has ANY chance to be a factor in Kentucky.
The only thing it might tell us is how much he likes poly.

I didn't realize that the Lexington was only a mile and a sixteenth either, poly or not ... He'd better get his ass up into contention earlier in this one vis a vis the distance and the horses running ... As far as the poly, I believe his workouts were on it ... Saturday may be somewhat inconclusive even if he does win, but I'd like to see him closer early on at any rate ...

Honestly, he doesn't strike me as a likely winner of the Lexington, although I suppose it is at least possible that he might just really like the tires.

Except in the case of this horse endurance isn't the issue, it is that he is probably plain too slow. So seeing that he's at least capable of running three furlongs in 34 is a bit encouraging.

Man, this is an awful Derby. I've just defended the chances of Tomcito and Adriano in the past ten minutes.