Craig, I know you are busy with a lot of other stuff going on, but wondering about the conjecture about the pace of the Derby. If it is not too much trouble, I would be interested in seeing your pace figures for the last few
(10) Derbies to see how they compare with this years prep races and whether they support or refute Steve and your thoughts about the Wood.

Bob

I don't have time to look them up right now, but if you go to my site and check the Breeder's Cup Archives, I imagine at least one Derby runner is in there most years.

OK, I looked. Note for the pace call at 10f, I use 6f, not the mile most people use.

2007-127, 106
2006-125, 111
2005-128, 100
2004-114, 105
2003-121, 107
2002-112, 113

I have a question for you and any other pace/final figure makers out there.

Do you have a lower confidence level when making figures for Derby preps due to there being a limited sample of age/sex/distance races against which to compare the preps' fractions and final times?

I've made and used my own pace/final figures and have found it far more difficult to have great confidence in figures I've made for infrequently run classifications (like a Derby prep) vs, say, a 6F or 8F race for older.

When figure professionals say that the "track changed" for races like the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby, is it mostly a case of the surface actually changing or more a reflection of the difficulty of assigning figures for these races?

I guess that's two questions. Thanks.

I don't find them any harder to make than any other figures. It can be tough when it is the only route on the card, or it is surrounded by a turf races, but that isn't any different than your usual race card.

Thanks Craig. It looks like 4 out of 6 similar to what War Pass set in the Wood. I guess that final starting field and post position draw wold have some effect on how fast it will be this year.

I,VE PUT LESS IMPACT ON BEYERS, AND MORE BACK ON PLAIN SPEED FIGS,
THEY SEEM TO HAVE COME 180 degrees the last couple of years. the pace
has also change somewhat because of breeding in the horses. Slow to slow
fast to fast winners .

^^^ Anyone have the Secret Decoder Ring settings for this?

Let Me Clear It Up A Little About Pace Is Changing
 

Iv'e Notice Slightly In The Higher Grade Races A Slow Pace Seems To Benefit Closers Nowdays, And A Fast Pace Closers Can't Keep
Up With The Horses Who Are Carrying Their Speed Farther,contrary
To The Old Carve In Stone Laws Of Racing. Its Changing Very Slowly
Due To Breeding Have You Notice It?

Somebody Help, How In The Hell Do I Get Sam Houston Off My Id On Post?
 

HELP

HEY STEVE SEE MY EXPO ABOUT THIS IN NEWW REPLY

tHE bEST wAY wOULD bE tO qUIT yOUR aCCOUNT aND cREATE a nEW oNE!

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20293

legendary thread which contains the decoder ring... it was found in a box of ovaltine

I totally agree with your reasoning as to why Assmussen went to KEE with Pyro. IMO A "fitter" colt with fresher legs heading to the Derby was his goal ... But I seriously doubt Ass was happy with 10th. I believe it was 1957 since a horse ran worse than 5th in his last prep and came back to win the KD (according to Steve Haskin on "ATR" ) Adriano had a nice race on the poly in the Lanes End. Should be running in the last 3/8ths. Handling the nuttyness of Derby Day is a huge question. My choice unless EP rides and erases all value.