nope just races 7-10 made up the whole bias thing to explain the Carter Handicap

happy

:rolleyes:

it isn't a question, colonel John will be fine, he is bred to even be better on the dirt then the synthetic/turf

Also, to add a comment about Recapturetheglory, the horse has zero shot to make the top three in the Derby, and I would be surprised if he has a shot to reach the top 10.

ET Baird in this Derby is a godsend for me because he is f'n going to the lead, and will go 22 to get it, bad news for horses like Mr. Brown, War Pass, Bob's Blackjack.....

horses like war pass and j be k are better off running short. these guys get a 2 yo to win big races and right away they are thinking "derby". war pass will probably never win a race over 1 mile 1/16 unless its sloppy or a bad field. the track on saturday was very fair i did not see a bias. i saw war pass throw in the towel on the turn, he was tired. j be k, tale of ikati,visionaire and yankee bravo came out of races with pyro and all ran ok. that tells me pyro is pretty good ,the final times don't matter and people get worked up over it. the longer the distance the more that horse has. colnel john seems to be the same way . they don't flash speed or get the hype but they pack a punch in the final 1/8, thats how you win the derby. the speed freak horses that get all the attention win about 1 in 10 derbies if that. i went down there a few years ago and like a fool bet bellamy road, my friend bet giacomo guess who was buying dinner ?

I keep hearing this....and I don't agree with it.

Let's start with the lifetime record of CJ's dam Sweet Damsel:

Dirt Sprint: 7-0-2-1 Earnings: $6,059 Top Beyer: 51
Dirt Routes: 12-2-2-1 Earnings: $26,897 Top Beyer: 82
Turf Races: 14-3-1-2 Earnings: $33,513 Top Beyer: 89

Basically, Sweet Damsel was a modest horse who strongly preferred running a route of ground and was slightly better on turf. She only sold for $9,500 as a yearling - I have no idea who trained and on what circuits she raced.

As for CJ's sire Tiznow - Great dirt horse for sure - but never tried turf and synthetic wasn't invented.

However, Tiznow has been a sensation synthetic track sire! Besides CJ, he's sired other synthetic lovers Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed. All of which also could handle dirt - but all slightly more effective on synthetic tracks.

From the clues we have to go on in the pedigree - I think CJ will appreciate the 10 furlong Derby distance.....but, I believe anyone who thinks he's bred to improve on dirt is reading his pedigree wrong. He probably will hold his synthetic form - that's my guess.

Does he really need to improve given the trip that he is going to get in the Derby, he will be in that covented 5-10 part of the pack hopefully 2w-3w (rail is always garbage unless you are Borel who just seems to always get through)

Personally, I will be using alot of synethic horses on Derby Day, obviously I am going to go off prior dirt form also, but I think to just toss horses that have never seen dirt will be a large mistake.

What are CJ's odds on Derby day, if War Pass goes, War Pass is probably 7/1 given the distance questions, Big Brown is probably in the 4/1 stage, Pyro is in the 5/1 unless this weekend is crazy impressive, so could CJ be in the 10-12/1 range?

I think CJ might beat War Pass out of 3rd choice in the betting.

That low and only exotic play for me, but if I can get 10-12/1 on him, might get a little nuts...

It's not the track, it's the horse who wins or loses. If you can run, you can run. This crap about he didn't like the track stuff is bull.

You bet the horse for the horse.


What ever the condition. The trainer has the option to scratch the horse if he or she wants to.

well armed ran huge in dubai.

Biggest obstacle for Pyro is going to be the mutt on his back Derby day.

The out west 3 year olds are NOT running better figures, at least from a TG perspective. I can't recall the numbers, but I know that Colonel John has a really good progressing pattern, I just hope that he didn't explode in his last effort.

Matter of fact, I don't think a 3 year old has broken the 1 or 2 barrier on the west coast. I know that Big Brown has, and Pyro is right there.

i think pyro has a legit chance to clunk up for 5th, i just dont like this horse, and feel good about him not running 1-2-3 in the derby. i rate a number of horses higher.....

war pass
colonel john
dennis of cork
tale of ekati
cool coal man
z humor
even court vision i think can still improve in the key 3rd start off of a layoff, i think court vision will 100% outfinish pyro in the derby

Pyro will eat Court Vision's lunch, and I'm not even a huge Pyro fan. How anyone can still be a Court Vision supporter after that embarrassing, gutless run on Saturday is beyond me. At least Pyro has closing speed and isn't a total plodder.

I think you're dreaming if you think you're getting double digits on Colonel John. He'll be 8/1 MAXIMUM, and probably closer to 6/1 at post time.

Assuming Pyro entered the Derby with the same look/feel as he does now, I think the odds shake-out like this for the top four:

Big Brown: 3-1
Pyro: 4-1
Colonel John: 6-1
War Pass: 7-1

Regardless of your opinion of Big Brown, we have to admit there is a massive amount of buzz about him, and that'll drive his price down.

3rd back, for a legend trainer... i thought his effort sat. was sneaky good. I think in the derby they will go even faster, yes the opening quarter was hot in the wood, but 1.11.2, what is that ? he should get 1.09.3 in the derby, and once again it is that key third start back.

and he showed he can win a fight, in the remsen, he was bounced around and still got rolling late, and that day he closed into nothing. He also has experience at CD.

Why would War Pass be 7/1 when he closed at 14/1 in the Future pool?

I think enough people have soured on him to make him ~ 10/1 on Derby day.