Dunbar |
03-29-2008 09:17 AM |
Agree with both Scav and ArlJim. Absolutely nothing wrong with taking 4/5 on a horse that ought to be 2/5. Sometimes the bettors are so eager to find a reason NOT to bet the big fav, that they do create an opportunity. And sometimes they just fail to see how much better a horse is than the rest of the field.
But also agree with ArlJim that it's not at all obvious (to me) that Curlin deserves to be 2/5 against an international field after traveling half way across the world. In October he wasn't an obvious fav in the BC Classic. I don't think that one awesome race makes him the dominant World horse that would justify 2/5 against this field.
Now that I think about it, horseracing may be the only area where there is a large school of thought that taking even money is a horrible proposition. Sports bettors routinely take 10/11. Blackjack cardcounters accept the even money payoff of the game (with the roughly 5% chance of getting a 3:2 payoff added in) without wincing. Many poker players thrive in heads-up games where they will at best win even money.
--Dunbar
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