its pretty much a death sentence if you ask me for a horse making its 2 turn debut. He'll need to be a monster to get it done from out there. the data for nine furlongs at the new Gulfstream makes it clear that its one of the extreme cases when post position really does count in a big way.
maybe he'll be the first to do it, that would be impressive.

Who exactly did Barbaro beat in that race? Those BEHIND him had distinguished careers.

I haven't looked the field over but I can't believe there's much in it. If BB is any kind of horse, and I'm not talking about a ***** NEED EVERYTHING ITS OWN WAY TYPE, like War Pass, then he sits comfortably outside and rolls.

As for all the rest of the concern: BB won't be a price. Why in the world would I be gearing up to bet this horse when there's so much OTHER VALUE, in OTHER races out there.

You guys take your STAR ENVY (or STAR wanna be envy) very seriously here.

Give me data that's MEANINGFUL, Jim.

Give me information on horses with LEGITIMATE SHOTS that broke from the outside. How many could there have possibly been in the past 20 years, let alone since they REDID the track?

...

I think its good. Come on, if brown is what he looks like, then we don't want the public to switch over.
he wins by 2 instead of 9 , and by and large the public doesn't want a story about overcoming track dynamics.
The sheets or graphs or beyers write 1 article, big deal. If he wins here, then pray that Pyro and War Pass win their preps.

Big Brown has no shot to win from that post.

Remember the FOY when we heard how Adriano was so good he'd be able to overcome the 12 post?

You're KIDDING, right? Adriano, as in ADRIANO the turf/poly specialist?

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but how many horses have started in posts 11 and 12 over the past 4 years?

Here come the trolls...

Exactly, Barbaro beat NOTHING. And BB might be in a similar situation.

Dig deeper. Give me stats with ODDS. Give me some names/races of horses losing from the outside post that actually had a shot to win the race. Even though it's over a 4 year period, I can't believe that there are many races, given the 1 or 2 carded each week.


I agree with the last part. If I'm waiting around to make a killing on BB and then feel skunked when he gets the outside post, I'm definitely in need of a method tuneup.

I hope you're kidding if you think the post won't severely compromise Big Brown's chances. I just commented cause it's just funny to see a replay of the Fountain of Youth thread already with someone claiming the unproven horse from the 12 hole will crush the field.

Who in that race had a distinguished career? Sunriver? I don't have the PPs handy but I don't think there was much in that race and Barbaro ran his heart out to barely do it and he was from the 10th post. BB is drawing even worse.

I wasn't going to bet Big Brown before the draw and I certainly am not going to after. He could end up being the best horse in this field...although I doubt it...but he isn't winning.

i think he does - if he is as good as he appears.

i am a track dynamics guy. This isn't a once a year thing for me when GP runs its 9 furlong dirt stakes. When a poor breaking early speed horse couldn't clear from post 12 in a mile turf race @gp , i know he has 5 more seconds to get there today 8.5TRUF. if it goes off the turf to 8main he has 35 more seconds...

PROBABLY A 2HORSE RAC
a lot will depend on brown. A lot will depend on Elysium fields. Can EF actually relax and settle? Tomcito is a longshot, but at least he has a glimmer of hope. Even if Tomcito is very good he probably needs a race. horses like hey byrne are bums

I'm not doubting that Big Brown is a very good horse... I'm just going with the facts and the fact is that no horse has won from that post in a 9 furlong race.

Maybe they should just scratch BB and find another race.

I've heard worse ideas.

You know what my problem is with this data (and not just yours). This distance is run so infrequently at GP, and there are many cases of OFF TRACKS, that I think one needs to actually get in there and look at more than a few closely. See, if in fact, the post, in other words, the EXTRA distance, is the cause. Of course, this would have more impact on horses that run with the pace and are forced into wide trips. Why would breaking from the 12 affect a closer, for example?