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-   -   The case for why Pyro is the most likely Derby winner right now (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20062)

Bobby Fischer 02-10-2008 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
not necessarily. plenty of times i have seen people make a statement that a horse who won with ease could have run faster if asked. and quite often that turns out to be incorrect.

Because most people do not have that perception ability. The common mistake is when a speed horse wins in hand and the thought is he could have gone faster... However when a horse runs an exceptionally fast finish fraction, in most cases they could in fact have gone faster.

Pyro could go out in a week and best that time in the morning, if someone were to offer his connections enough money.

cmorioles 02-10-2008 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I knew that as well......but I didn't want to make him cry.

I assume he missed the Grasshopper race yesterday.

Bobby Fischer 02-10-2008 09:21 AM

TAKE HIS SHILL AND GO --- TO WAGER ----PLEASE.


Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
There needs to be like a message board farm system.....

Like a place where we can send posters who've lost their fastball or never had one to start with.

Did we pick up The Fish and The Fat Man from a prison swap with Pace Advantge or something?

beyer is an (insert childish insult). He just wants to shill his speed figure. These speed figures have been misrepresented for a false importance in race prediction. "Horse A has three 100 beyers, so he figures to be the one to beat..."

A beyer is only an adjusted final time speed figure. It tells nothing at all about how the race was run other than adjusted final time. It tells nothing at all about the animal other than adjusted final time.
It would have been in good taste to consciously keep separate race analysis from the speed figures. However it is about a profit and these figures have been purposely incorporated in the race analysis to sound more important.

when you see a speed figure in an analysis, without context, it should sound like a car title loan commercial to your bs radar

and sadly drones such as yourself repeat this mantra for free. "Horse A is going to win the kentucky derby because he has the top 3yo beyers of 2008!" lmao , what comedy. There needs a place where we can send guys like this - a wagering facility where they can put their money into the pools.

pgardn 02-10-2008 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
Assuming my balls aren't being busted, which is a dangerous assumption here....

El Gato Malo- It seems like there is less talk about his potential distance limitations than there is about War Pass, even though this one is by El Corredor. Or maybe there is talk and I am just not hearing it. Plus there's the whole synthetic track thing. But he's done nothing wrong. It would not be a shock if he went into the KY Derby undefeated, where it came down to an issue of his ability to handle the surface and the distance. I like him.

Crown of Thorns- I'm not sure what he beat in the Lewis. I like others out West more than him. Probably #2 in his own barn anyway.

Court Vision- This is the kind of horse I am usually wrong about. He's looked awesome, but the speed numbers are not where some would want them to be. I would rate him among my Top 5 at this point, but I have this fear that BTW is on to something in his criticism.

This was an attempt to build instead of
tear down. It is very easy to tear down.
One can sit here and not like any horse
and then just wait for others to fail
come back and say "you fool, I told you that
horse was a pile o crap".

It is much more difficult to actually like horses (plural)
early, that due to probability will ultimately fail,
and then wait for the parade to take the simpleton
route of piling on a failed prediction.

I also thought that El Gato Malo was due to run in
the Southwest and get off the syn.? I think there
are some other prospects in the Southwest as well?

I guess we will find out something about Into Mischief
soon, Mandella has made it clear the horse has suffered
from the rain... a little too much. So we may be looking
at a less than stellar effort at 7f. I dont know if this is
Mandella's MO with horses though (talking down a horse).

Trying to keep track of how all these syn. running horses
come out of this mess will be very interesting. I think
everyone will take home different lessons. If a horse wins
the Derby after going a purely syn. route...

freddymo 02-10-2008 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
The whole post looked like another poor effort to discredit Street Sense to me.


I laughed hard

hoovesupsideyourhead 02-10-2008 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
I laughed hard

me too

cmorioles 02-10-2008 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
I laughed hard

I shouldn't be so mean. He obviously hasn't recovered from his bridgejumping bet on Hystericalady last week.

SCUDSBROTHER 02-10-2008 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
There needs to be like a message board farm system.....

Like a place where we can send posters who've lost their fastball or never had one to start with.

Did we pick up The Fish and The Fat Man from a prison swap with Pace Advantge or something?

If so, who did we have to give up?

Unless DT gave up DisappearingDan and Merasmag - I think this board took the worst of that trade.

Don't know that much about this FAT MAN,but we both had this Monastery Scandal picked out last time.Runs again today(I think.)I lose track once I know they are done paying well.

Coach Pants 02-10-2008 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
TAKE HIS SHILL AND GO --- TO WAGER ----PLEASE.




beyer is an (insert childish insult). He just wants to shill his speed figure. These speed figures have been misrepresented for a false importance in race prediction. "Horse A has three 100 beyers, so he figures to be the one to beat..."

A beyer is only an adjusted final time speed figure. It tells nothing at all about how the race was run other than adjusted final time. It tells nothing at all about the animal other than adjusted final time.
It would have been in good taste to consciously keep separate race analysis from the speed figures. However it is about a profit and these figures have been purposely incorporated in the race analysis to sound more important.

when you see a speed figure in an analysis, without context, it should sound like a car title loan commercial to your bs radar

and sadly drones such as yourself repeat this mantra for free. "Horse A is going to win the kentucky derby because he has the top 3yo beyers of 2008!" lmao , what comedy. There needs a place where we can send guys like this - a wagering facility where they can put their money into the pools.


Scurlogue Champ 02-10-2008 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
TAKE HIS SHILL AND GO --- TO WAGER ----PLEASE.




beyer is an (insert childish insult). He just wants to shill his speed figure. These speed figures have been misrepresented for a false importance in race prediction. "Horse A has three 100 beyers, so he figures to be the one to beat..."

A beyer is only an adjusted final time speed figure. It tells nothing at all about how the race was run other than adjusted final time. It tells nothing at all about the animal other than adjusted final time.
It would have been in good taste to consciously keep separate race analysis from the speed figures. However it is about a profit and these figures have been purposely incorporated in the race analysis to sound more important.

when you see a speed figure in an analysis, without context, it should sound like a car title loan commercial to your bs radar

and sadly drones such as yourself repeat this mantra for free. "Horse A is going to win the kentucky derby because he has the top 3yo beyers of 2008!" lmao , what comedy. There needs a place where we can send guys like this - a wagering facility where they can put their money into the pools.

LIBEL!!!!!

Bobby Fischer 02-10-2008 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
X

My dear Fortunato, you are luckily met. How
remarkably well you are looking to-day. But I have received a pipe of
what passes for Amontillado, and I have my doubts.

justindew 02-10-2008 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
My dear Fortunato, you are luckily met. How
remarkably well you are looking to-day. But I have received a pipe of
what passes for Amontillado, and I have my doubts.

Is that Poe?

Danzig 02-10-2008 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
Is that Poe?

it is.


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