Compare these 2 videos for Cherokee Tear

OSA 11/4/2007 race 7 ( very difficult day to get up from back...he was best though)


SA 12/31/2007 race 8 (easy win when given fair track to work with)

Please note on the backstretch there is a 18 length deficit to make up on nov 4th,and just 8 lengths on the race on 12-31......It is not all due to a faster pace(maybe a couple lengths are due to that.)

You're consistently a lush.Did you ever get so drunk that you gave your cat something other than water to drink?

No,the best horse is not always a closer.The best horse will usually win on a fair track(regardless of running style.) or, as Playa says "REGUARDLESS"

Bravo Scuds you couldn't be more correct on this one......the read is obvious once you understand what's in front of you....or in this case "around" you...

One of the many reasons I missed this bias today was that a speed bias is most promient during short sprints but most effective if rated correctly in routes. Sprints which were only two today of the nine carded races so I missed the insanity of a 20.3 second quarter in the second race....

Nice hitting today Hooves..:D

THAT WAS A 1ST TIME STARTER IN A MAIDEN CLAIMER.I think it was maybe a Mullins horse.I guess Mullins told the jock to just go hard,get incredible separation.Obviously wasn't worried about getting caught,but like I said,people start doing weird stuff on speed biased tracks,and this was one of those weird things .They had their lil experiment to see just how fast they could go without getting caught.If he had a race under his belt,then he might not have stopped.The horse probably wins easily if they just clear on a reasonable pace,but I guess Mullins thought it was highly speed favoring.That's not just the jock letting a horse run off.That was the directions from the trainer.See,it can become a sideshow.They had a speed favoring track,and got it back beautifully 2 days later. For 6 race days they had a very fair track where horses could win with whatever style they had.Weird tracks since the rain.Last Thursday was the weirdest.It favored outside closers.Today's track is kind of typical of what happens when we get a lil warm and dry out here.True Raters might as well stay in the barn.Should be better Thursday.

It wasn't a fair track.I'm glad you cashed. That's your kind of fake track.You didn't pick 8 out of 9 winners.I don't see a single.You pick 3 horses a race,and got lucky in the last because the best horse was up against a huge bias....Chris PAASCH,HESS,AND JASON ORMAN....ALL 3=**** ........So,they had their day,and the track will be back under control soon,and good trainers will dominate these 3 again.They had their freak show.

the play was to box ect and pick 3s and rolling d.d.. muli plays are a safer bet and lead to better exotic payouts .. you keep singling and ill keep cashing.......... hey your play went all /7 ..i think the 1 may have been a good choice..but its gogos fault he didint get em moving not the tracks.....you need to watch the track abit more early in the card.. and the day before .and they have been adding sand giving it more grip in my opinion so speed is where it will be for a wile......

thank you.........

also how many speed types went out and faded .........

Picking winners is overrated......making money, then, I guess is underrated. Picking winners is about ego, it's all about needing to be right, but playing the horses is about making money and if your style of play is to spread, and you actually do make money doing this, then you are a better horseplayer, in all likelihood, than the person who thinks he makes money by picking a winner. I'm not saying that one style is absolutely better, but the successful players I know are better at putting together plays than picking specific winners.

As for the bias frustration, I hear you, and sometimes ( not as often as people think ) this is a big problem when playing the Aqueduct inner dirt ( which I play every day ). However, there is an enormous light at the end of the tunnel if you have a bias, especially a prolonged one, in that the track will become even at a certain point and you will left with a plethora of trips to use to play horses and play against, usually overbet, horses. That should more than financially make up for any supposed tough beats due to bias....if your opinion is solid and your race watching skills are even borderline competent.

just for kicks lets look at the winners pps/ vs the glorius 1 horse in the last

winner had ..higher beyer/better work, imo cut back.. both ran in same conditions. lewis /trainer of the 1 is a 6perc trainer

they payed 90k for the 2 ..then jocks 1 cnack to gogo..same thing

2 dellgatto to talamo plus though i like dellgato..

now the kicker.....the 2 beat the 1 last time 2 races back....


its just capping.......

There's still more than one way to be successful.

And, even if picking winners is overrated, you still need to be right at some point, whether it's making a horse an A,B,C or X in multis or betting against a short priced horse in a single race.

A couple of the better players I know eschew the multi-race wagers and focus on single race situations to bet strongly against a short-priced, negative-opinion horse mostly through the tri and super pools. Just like the p-4 or p-6 players, they have to be right about their opinion as well as their ticket structure. But they prefer betting this strategy vs being shoe-horned into needing to be right (at least to some extent) about a leg of a p-4 that is, to them, largely undecipherable.

You can still win using different strategies.

Also, way to go at SA yesterday, Hooves.....