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-   -   Your best bet of the weekend (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17561)

brianwspencer 10-24-2007 01:27 PM

My exotics best-bet as far as the price vs. the talent in relation to the field would be 20-1 on Purim.

Best bet otherwise has got to be Hystericalady at anything near 8-1, but she appears to have the look of the wiseguy horse and I'd expect her to take a lot of cash from that.

I guess whittling it down, given that I don't think Hystericalady will be anything near 8-1, that the one other horse I'm loving for the price is Wicked Style. 10-1 on an unbeaten runner sounds fine to me.

NoChanceToDance 10-24-2007 01:39 PM

Who said "Dylan Thomas, we may get soft turf"?????

Just to let you know, DT hates soft turf. If it was soft by Saturday, you will seriously have to consider tossing him. If it does become soft, don't be surprised even if he gets scratched.

My best bet would be Unbridled Belle in the Distaff. She did really well to win last time with the trouble she managed to find during the race. She had a few of these behind last time and i think she is a great bet. Her pedigree suggests she will keep improving with age and it looks like she is doing just that.

miraja2 10-24-2007 01:50 PM

Discreet Cat will be 1/9 after the kid puts his $62 quadrillion bet down on him....so the best value horses will probably come from that race.
I actually do like Gottcha Gold in that one if he goes off at anywhere close to his 8/1 ML, but I doubt he will.

freddymo 10-24-2007 01:52 PM

what kid?

Mortimer 10-24-2007 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance
Who said "Dylan Thomas, we may get soft turf"?????

Just to let you know, DT hates soft turf. If it was soft by Saturday, you will seriously have to consider tossing him. If it does become soft, don't be surprised even if he gets scratched.

My best bet would be Unbridled Belle in the Distaff. She did really well to win last time with the trouble she managed to find during the race. She had a few of these behind last time and i think she is a great bet. Her pedigree suggests she will keep improving with age and it looks like she is doing just that.




DO NOT GO SOFTLY INTO THAT GOOD NIGHT..........young swine.

NoChanceToDance 10-24-2007 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mortimer
DO NOT GO SOFTLY INTO THAT GOOD NIGHT..........young swine.

Can i just disagree without ever understanding you? That's what i've done in the past :D

Morty, you are like George Washington on drugs

KY_Sasquash 10-24-2007 02:29 PM

Most likely winner-Lady Joanne

Bomb Longshot: Silent Name in the mile & Slew's Tiznow in the Juv

Benevolus 10-24-2007 02:31 PM

Looks like weather from europe so let's go with three Europeans.

Dylan Thomas - best bet - Don't see them beating him even if turf is soft by american standards
Excellent Art- Too classy for these
George Washington- longshot (20-1 ML) probably won't win but 20-1 is worth a shot

Buffymommy 10-24-2007 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash
Slew's Tiznow in the Juv


Don't you be jumping on my bandwagon. He is my long shot pick.

Slew's Tiznow/Old Man Buck exacta!!! Those two will be battling it down to the wire.



OH and my gut pick so far is Host.

miraja2 10-24-2007 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
what kid?

THE kid.
In all honesty, after spending a good deal of time looking over the PPs today, my top two bets of the day remain a win bet on Street Sense and a Curlin-Street Sense exacta box in the Classic.
Street Sense's last work sealed it for me.

Bogey 10-24-2007 09:13 PM

Juvy Fillies

#8 Izzara - She's been green, but she has an enormous amount of upside. She'll love the distance and many of the fillies here would rather be sprinting and will be weeded out as they turn for home. McAnally (HOF Trainer) has a very nice filly that will score at 5-1 or so. Load Up

Good Racing Luck

pgardn 10-24-2007 09:47 PM

Grass Mile...

Nobiz takes money, the Euro takes money on the outside.

Why not Kip Deville? The horse is always in the mix.
Nothing super fantastic just seems to give himself a chance
in almost every race.

We will see how overlooked he is.

jwkniska 10-24-2007 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn
Grass Mile...

Nobiz takes money, the Euro takes money on the outside.

Why not Kip Deville? The horse is always in the mix.
Nothing super fantastic just seems to give himself a chance
in almost every race.

We will see how overlooked he is.

Excellent Art and Remarkable News are compromised by the posts. Will either be Kip or Jeremy in this one.

NoChanceToDance 10-25-2007 05:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwkniska
Excellent Art and Remarkable News are compromised by the posts. Will either be Kip or Jeremy in this one.

I still think EA has a good chance despite the draw. This horse is so adaptable with regards to tactics and race positioning. He has top class form when running from the front, and he has top class form when coming from the back.

He also has that ability to quicken in a few strides, often catching some of the best horses flat footed.

He will need a bit of luck, but he is definitley good enough to win this despite his draw. He deserves some luck after the year he has had so far. If he was given better rides this year, his form would read 1111..... all of those coming in Gr1 races.

Port Conway Lane 10-25-2007 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Let's hear it and why. Favorite, longshot, whatever.

Mine is Gottcha Gold at the 8-1 ML. I know, I know, there's "all kinds of speed in here, he can't win". BS- this horse will make the lead and just refuses to quit. His last three races have been some of the most stunning performances of the year; setting suicidal fractions and should have won all three. Additionally, my instinct says a few of the supposed speed types will take back, except GG and the headstrong Wanderin Boy, who will pack it in at the 1/2 mile pole. When GG gets to the top of the stretch with a 4 length lead, good luck running him down.

Best Bet is rain. The Mr.Prospectors move up tomorrow. Gottcha Gold,Wanderin Boy and Forefathers. I'll add Park Avenue Ball to those three and key Gottcha Gold and Wanderin Boy in the top slot and the others boxed with the remainder of the field in the super. $21.60 total.

KY_Sasquash 10-25-2007 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buffymommy
Don't you be jumping on my bandwagon. He is my long shot pick.

Slew's Tiznow/Old Man Buck exacta!!! Those two will be battling it down to the wire.



OH and my gut pick so far is Host.


ok, ok. im just following the lead on Slew's Tiznow! He ran well on the dirt at
7F and think he moves forward off the Breeders' Futurity race and 2 turns should hit him between the eyes........McPeek claims Old Man Buck is a dirt horse on the show last night, but he never ran him on the dirt and he couldve at Ellis. Still, at 30-1 or higher he's worth throwing in underneath for your exotics.

Buffymommy 10-25-2007 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash
ok, ok. im just following the lead on Slew's Tiznow! He ran well on the dirt at
7F and think he moves forward off the Breeders' Futurity race and 2 turns should hit him between the eyes........McPeek claims Old Man Buck is a dirt horse on the show last night, but he never ran him on the dirt and he couldve at Ellis. Still, at 30-1 or higher he's worth throwing in underneath for your exotics.

I tease... I loved Slew's Tiznow's full bro this year so I am rooting for him. I would like to see the brothers get two wins on the day. :) I think Slew's Tiznow is improving at the right time. Question is: Is he good enough?

Old Man Buck I think has potential especially if it is sloppy...

whodey17 10-25-2007 09:17 AM

My best bet is Timarwa.

outofthebox 10-25-2007 10:28 AM

My best bet or value play will be Balance in the distaff at 20-1ml. At first look it looks like i'm really reaching here, but on a day like BC that's what im looking for, a forgotten horse.
The last time Balance ran two turns on a conventional dirt track(or wet) she was the winner of the Gr.1 Santa Margarita at the same distance of the distaff. Before that she was an easy winner of the La Canada on a wet track. She then hooked Nashoba's Key on synthetic tracks at Hollywood and Del Mar and didnt discrace herself against a superior synthetic runner. Her last race at Belmont is not as bad as it looks on paper . She blew the start then was prematurely sent very wide on the final turn. She was 3-1 that day and will be 20-1 or better against the same horses today.

rontheman1964 10-25-2007 11:31 AM

My prediction??? Nebraska gets drilled again by 40 points or more and Callahan still thinks he is doing an excellent job. All the while he is working on his resume on the sidelines. Is there a worse football coach anywhere???


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