We will talk about this race first, in terms of TG. The others are such a cluster
AGS: AGS is gonna be a hot play because of his 2nd back performance at Monmouth, this we know. I don't really question his last race because Pletcher is just not getting his monster performances that he is used to. He runs that Monmouth race and he competes but I get the feeling those two efforts (2nd/3rd back) might have taken alot out of him.
AwesomeGem: A faster man's Hard Spun, except this horse just can't get into the winner circle. Would like to see Craig Dollase get a win but think he is climbing an up hill battle
Curlin: Another amazing horse with a great sheet with obvious recent care and caution with his races. Got back to his top in his last race and is co-2ndfastest with AGS. Getting back to that top with the careful planning should show a move forward
GW: Co-slowest along with along with the wap, Thank you Aiden for entering as this horse will take a little action because of last years' so-called decent performance
HS: Has run three of the same numbers, two of them around two turns, and I can see why people will argue him being on a lonely lead. Obviously if they let him chill out there he will be tough because he has some guts but would have to improve about 2.5 pts to win this, not happening unless a slow pace happens, which I doubt.
LR: After his two performances at Saratoga, I would ready to hand him this race. His last race, TG wise, is loaded with wideness, which those numbers I tend to question a little. That being said, he is still the fastest horse in the race and others will have to improve to catch him.
SS: SS's TG pattern is SCARY GOOD. It is EXACTLY like his prepping for the KY Derby, where he ran a monsterous race. The four race pattern is a thing of beauty. I fully expect him to run a top right into the breeding shed
Tiago: Co-slowest along with the president, thank you for being a money eater

Tiago and George Washington have no shot. Hard Spun can win, but only on a lonely lead and slow fractions. LR, Street Sense, Curlin and AGS all have shots at winning

Best Sheet for improvement: T - Street Sense and Curlin
Most Likely winner: Lawyer Ron

I agree with just about everything you said. A nice read btw. The only point I think is worth mentioning is Lawyer Ron is a 9f horse in a 10f race.

I hope that there is a decent pace in this race. Street Sense could be pressing but to win he will need to sit back and wait. Carl Nafzger said he is ready to run like he was for the Tamba Bay Derby (not the Ky Derby). Is he suggesting that Any Given Saturday is The Horse to beat?

Monmouth is notoriously early speed bias. Someone else mentioned them killing the rail to make it play fair. That will hurt Calvin's preferred style. However, I think someone would finally decide to stay in the way as a few will be in front of him.

It's tough when you handicap such a quality race. One of the pillars of solid wagering is the best bet in racing is lone speed. Hard Spun is without a doubt lone speed in the Classic. But then folks would argue that Class trumps speed, especially going long. Interesting puzzle.

I think the questions with Hard Spun are:

(1) Is Street Sense as good as he was in May? If you think he's tailed-off, while Hard Spun has largely maintained similar form, certainly the scales are tipping.

(2) Monmouth's track. Does it favor the front-end throughout the week?

(3) Lawyer Ron holds the key to Hard Spun's Classic winning move. Does he press the 3-year-old? Is he rank and intractable? How long does Johnny V. let him go for?

Tough stuff...

I don't get why so many people think that Hard Spun will be lone speed here. I don't think there is any chance of that happening. I believe Lawyer Ron will press him. It may not be in the first quarter or three furlongs but by the time they reach the half mile mark, I believe that Lawyer Ron will have moved up to engage him and the battle will be on. It will cause both horses to go a little faster than they want to go from the half to the 6f mark and weaken both of their stretch runs. Lawyer Ron will put Hard Spun away by the time they hit the top of the lane but will have nothing left to hold off the late runners in the final 8th. Curlin is my choice to win this race and Lawyer Ron is my choice to run third. For the second spot, I'm leaning towards towards AGS but will also play GW and Street Sense there.

early tactics
 

Pino would love to go 24 seconds for the first quarter. Where that puts the others I don't think really matters to him. Hard Spun can run a 24 first quarter and work his way up to a 6 furlong call between 1:11 and 1:12. Pino and Jones are confident that Spun can win on these terms. They don't care about another horse. As long as he doesn't get taken out in 109 like the preakness, or 116 like the Belmont the horse will put in a solid run. Pino and the Hard Spun have matured in their relationship to the point where they are capable of going a moderate 24 first fraction and have no intention whatsoever of "sneaking" away with a fast first fraction to get lone speed. Hard Spun will not even notice a little guy like Lawyer Ron anyway.

Lawyer Ron the horse wants to go 23 and small change for the first quarter. This creates a potential problem because John Velazquez does not want to lead at the first fraction. Johnny is going to hope and pray that Hard Spun goes as fast as the arm-chair handicappers seem to think Hard Spun will go - because JV does not want Ron on the lead, but he will have to have a good hold on Lawyer Ron to go 24 again.
If Ron can repeat the showing of the JCGC then they will be extremely pleased and will have a chance to hold on and win the race. If no one runs big behind them at the top of the backstretch- Ron may open up big with a furlong to go.

lr didnt give his best at belmont..he will on bc day...why kill the horse when the bc is so close..

While 1:11 for the opening 6f of the Derby isn't exactly crawling, I don't think I would call it "brutal." He got the lead early, and while he was pressed through the opening quarter, he was unchallenged from there until Street Sense ran by him.
People talk about Street Sense's "dream trip" along the rail, and certainly it was a combination of some gutsy riding by Calvin and some good old-fashioned racing luck. But I think because Hard Spun's trip wasn't so obviously amazing, it sometimes gets lost that HE had a very easy trip as well. Not only was he just cruising on an uncontested lead down the backstretch, he was right along the rail the whole way around too. It isn't like Street Sense's amazing trip that day caused him to save a lot of ground in comparison to Hard Spun.
Now obviously that race was over 5 months ago and on a different racetrack in a different part of the country than the upcoming race. The fact that Street Sense was - in my mind at least - clearly the best horse that day obviously does not mean that he is going to beat Hard Spun in the BCC. However, from what I have seen from these two horses on the dirt, and beyond 9f, there is no reason for me to believe that Hard Spun is a more likely winner than Street Sense on a fair track.
I am not completely convinced at this point, however, that either of them will beat Curlin.

Anyone know if Curlin is off to the shed after the Classic? I don't remember seeing it anywhere, but I am guessing a successful son of Smart Strike is kinda of popular right now

a bold statement.. .. i like that.. but for me the rest are suspect..

Funny, but we agree.

any thoughts on post time favorite? and possible odds?

Curlin at 3-1

Dunbar is the man when it comes to making these odds, but Lawyer Ron should be favored when all said and done, with SS/Curlin/AGS all floating in the same area.

I'm gathering intelligence.








I'm not finding much.


But intelligence isn't everything.

Oh gosh...that's a good one.




Hey...can I use this?

If only Lava Man were in this race...:)

I think a handicapper's dream would be if it were this Classic field + Lava Man + The Green Monkey

As someone planning on betting this race, I hope you are right about Lawyer Ron being the favorite, but I am not so sure he will be. Don't you think a lot of people will be scared off by his 0 for 3 lifetime number going 10f?
I know I will be.