The markets are interesting, and they will vary a great deal between the Atlantic Ocean. There are a few bookmakers over here that will have so called American experts, but what they know about the sport over can there can be written on a postal stamp.

Hard Spun will only get bigger than 12/1 over here because everyone is discounting him by saying "oh, he'll get caught" There is a possibility he will, but there is also enough reasoning to suggest that he won't, and while he price is getting bigger and bigger there is more and more reason to bet him.

Give it another two weeks and i think he will be closer to 16/1.

Street Sense cannot be given away over here, he isn't a horse that we 'euros' are too keen on. Everyone i speak to that follows American racing is of the opinion that he got very lucky in the KY Derby, and has looked slightly regressive since. Maybe his 2yo campaign is starting to have an affect on him?? Hard to say either way though.

AGS is the horse that the bookmakers have been taking most money for as i'm aware. He is a horse that i think will improve by going further. Many don't agree with me on this, but i think there is an outside chance that he will be even better over 10furlongs.

I'm surprised Lawyer Ron isn't bigger than he is right now, he opened in most markets as the 10/3 fav but hasn't really drifted that much after his defeat to Curlin. I was of the opinion that he would be outstayed in the classic.

As DrugS said, the race all boils down to one horse really, and that is Hard Spun. Not saying he will win, but a lot depends on him. Will he have to go hard early? Will he get a fairly easy time of it up front. On will Pino do an intelligent thing by going hard early, and then slowing the gallop down with a about four to run to stack the field up, and make it hard for the closers? That is something i'd like to see the American jocks do more often. If He could pull that off then the race would be surely between him and Lawyer Ron, while the closers will be having all sorts of problems.

While it isn't a superb field (in my opinion) it will be an interesting race from a tactical point of view.

can't help but wonder if lawyer ron will be the roses in may to hard spun as ghostzapper.

and before anyone makes the leap, no, i'm not saying hard spun is on the same level as GZ. just that the race could be run in similar fashion.

I honestly don't see the race unfolding that way at all. Unless the track is a complete merry-go-round again, I have to favor Curlin and Street Sense over the two of them at 10f. People seem to be assuming that if Hard Spun gets loose on the lead he will win.
Well he DID get loose on the lead the last time he went 10f, and it still didn't matter. I think the finish of this race might look a lot more like the '07 Preakness than the '04 Classic.

do you think an extra furlong would have changed the outcome between Hard spun and street sense at turfway? i don't.

and as for the 07 preakness comparing to this years classic, i think lawyer ron and political force are better than the likes of mint slewlep, flying first class, etc etc.

Who knows? But I really don't think that matters. Using the outcome of 9f races on polytrack to determine which horse will prevail going 10f on dirt is rather unwise. Street Sense never seems to win on the tires.
Hard Spun has stretched out beyond 9f on the dirt three times. He is 0 for 3. Lawyer Ron is 0 for 3 at 10f. Could either of these win the Classic? Sure. But I am most likely looking elewhere (unless the track indicates a STRONG bias in their favor).

right, so who thinks street sense will get the same sweet trip he got in the derby? he will be impacted more by the field then a front runner.

I think he'll be closer to the pace but will get the rail turning for home.

Why? Because jockeys are morons.

you know what's the best part of all of this SS/HS debate?

the fact that we're even able to have it. when was the last time the top 3 finishers even made it to the Classic?

It'll be good enough. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same triple as the Derby

This is a solid point. And the same applies for the Kentucky Cup Classic.

We also have to remember that jockey's ride the race as well. And John Velazquez aboard Lawyer Ron will take the race to Hard Spun a bit earlier if he thinks Mario Pino is too loose-on-the-lead. It could spell disaster, but jockey's know they can't let Hard Spun get away too freely.

If Wanderin Boy or someone like that enters the race, this all becomes moot.

So I am up front, Hard Spun is my guy, but as I've said before it's hard to fathom him winning at 10f. They thing I'd like to interject is that I'm not sure Street Sense is the same horse he was in May, or maybe the others have caught up. He beat nobody in the Jim Dandy. Barely held on against Grasshopper, and we all know what happened to him in his next out. Then looked somewhat happless chasing Hard Spun in the KCC. How many times can Nafzger work his magic? At this point it looks like Any Given Saturday could be the one and that makes me ill.

He's still got 2 charges left on his wand. Might need more mana, though.

i got the 16-1 available with ladbrokes on hard spun.. I think Street Sense is the real deal and last week was a perfect prep but that 16-1 looked way too big.

all true as well....anxious for the big day for sure!

What we need is a few more negitive stories..like he worked to fast... or Carl scratched his head too long and it means he is concerned..some questioning media article and we can get 4-1..at that point it's back up the truck! I agree with DaHoss ..he has been pointed to this race by a trainer that knows what the hell he is doing....

keep in mind hawthorne altered their main track and did some things to it after the harness meet concluded this summer and has made the track slower. also there wasnt much early lick in there and jonesboro was allowed to coast on the front end and set very easy fractions which made him finish better than he shoulda at the distance, emigh did a terrific job on him that race