I will look at the superfecta.
I agree with the public on Street Sense, but I disagree about CP West.

To me this is the key point. I think that even if everything you say is true, and this is not his "preferred set-up for a peak performance," he will almost certainly win anyway against these. If Curlin or AGS was here, that would obviously be a different story. At 10f, I don't think he needs anywhere near his peak performance to win this particular race.
On top of that, I'm not sure that we won't see a peak performance out of him. His Jim Dandy was his first back off a layoff and was clearly not the race the barn was pointing towards. Although talk of barns getting their horse to peak for specific races is generally incredibly overblown, this one seems to do very well when they are gunning for a particular race as they are here.
My larger point was that I often think people get locked in to trying to "beat" all odds-on favorites. While this can be a good general principle, not all odds-on favorites are created equally. If a horse is 3/5 or 4/5 and should be 1/5....there is some value there. As far as I am concerned Street Sense falls into this range. Say he goes off at 3/5 and Grasshopper goes off at 8/1. To me there is more value in Street Sense than in a horse making his stakes debut, and his 10f debut, in a G1 race with a horse like Street Sense. Could Grasshopper win? Sure. But I would put the odds on that happening at about 20/1.

1/2 is the highest you will see on him.

I'll tri key Street Sense over CP West and Grasshopper

I think Street Sense is such bad odds, and I think a previous poster might have nailed it, with a smaller field, and pace, , he might not run according to form. He has the class, no doubt to win from anywhere, but he does have a habit of winning or losing by just enough. He hung and gawked against Curlin, and was all out to beat Any Given Saturday. He had to run down Hard Spun with a perfect trip. Might be a time to take a shot...esp if he does go off at 1 to 9. why not....Graveyard of favorites..... don't spend a lot, but maybe get a lot back. Grasshopper I hear alot about, but like a previous poster said, might be the wiseguy horse.... Maybe bet on the 20-1 shot? For You Reppo? Haskin kinda mentioned the horse sheepishly last night on Steve's show, as maybe a horse that was interesting.....

For You Reppo is interesting. His pedigree says no, but he has a foundation of 9f races, and a good trainer. Gomez can ride... why not


No one should beat Street Sense here, unless Street Sense tires unexpectedly.

Grasshoper has the most unknown potential, but I think Sightseeing has solid form.

If Sightseeing could magically combine the best aspects of his last two races -
The Dwyer where he makes excellent headway on the backstretch before getting sandwiched, and The Dandy where he shows late interest -
Sightseeing could at least make Street Sense work. Then sightseeing could magically combine some pick-6 tickets for me.:D

I still keep leaning on Street Sense being a Churchill Downs lover / horse for course. In his last 6 races he has had 2 blow out wins at CD and in the 4 races at other tracks (you can even go back to races before his Juvenile victory at Kee / AP) he has been in "dogfights" and he even lost 2 of those 4 "dogfights" to horses he toyed with at CD (much of this can also be made of the pace scenario noted above). He may win, but if I am going to take between 1 to 5 and 1-2 I want a horse that is clearly 5 lenghts better than the remainder of the field. At CD I would agree. I am not as inclined at any other track. I would lean towards Grasshopper or Sightseeing if SS goes off too low.

you may be right about the churchill angle, although i think there is a little more to it. i'm working up some detailed thoughts on how i see this race breaking down and will post it later. bottom line is i agree with you that if Street sense wins this this race it will be another hard fought one length win.

Initial thoughts, this appears to be a COLD Street Sense over Sightseeing exacta, with a possible reverse. Grasshopper, off the 4pt TG top, seems to be a bounce candidate, and I don't like the pattern on CP West.

Totally agree and hope for an $8 exacta

I disagree with people who say he is just a CD lover, because of how he ran at Pimlico. He didn't win that day, but it was arguably the best race he has run yet. I sound like a HUGE Street Sense fan in this thread, and I'm really not, but against this particular field I would be absolutely SHOCKED if he doesn't win.

If Street Sense goes off at 3/5 my bet is definitely in.
Its just a matter if I want to drive all the way to the track to bet and then it falls to 1/5.

I think Ajim has an interesting way of viewing this horse but I also agree 10f is just too long to beat this horse with these even on a bad day. 70 to 80% chance Street Sense wins.

Huh?
 

Remember Upset?!? :eek: :eek: :eek:

when he owns the rail on the second turn and has a solid pace to run into, he is real tough, (Juvenile, derby, preakness) i don't think he gets either today.

when he is denied the rail, or the pace is moderate to slow, or both, he ends up in a fight that he can still win but not a sure thing at low odds. (Tampa Bay, Bluegrass, Jim Dandy)


of course Street Sense will be no surprise today no matter how they run it, but I'm picking Grasshopper despite adding 9 pounds, another furlong, and a big class hike.:eek:

Sight Seeing will need a slow pace and to be on even-terms with Street Sense to have a shot. He was content to track in the Dandy.

Cornelio will probably ride CP pretty honest and I don't expect him to race-ride Street Sense. Albarado has to take a shot with Grasshopper, the pace and the rail should open up late if not early.

Gomez on For You Reppo is about the biggest threat to race-ride and box-in Street Sense, but if the pace opens up so will the room.

Sightseeing stunk

but grasshopper looked good. one to keep an eye on when the top horses all retire in a few months.

congrats to street sense, looked a bit like a battle, but the champ prevails. first 2 yo champ/derby/travers winner in YEARS and years.

You nailed it along with stating Grasshopper is one to watch.

I bow.