Nafzger is at his best when he sets a goal for his horse and points to a specific race and trains up to it, see BC Juvenille 2006 and KY Derby 2007. He laid out pinpoint plans to get the horse there and have him ready to win. He won both.

He freely admitted he had no real plan after the Derby. No surprise that SS got nosed out. The question is, what is the long term goal of Nafzger for SS? Is it the Travers or the BC Classic. I argue that it is both. Old school guys like Nafzger view the Travers as the fourth jewel in the Triple Crown. He said leading up to the Jim Dandy, he didnt care if SS lost, he just needed to get sharper off the long lay off. It wasn't overly impressive, but the horse did what was necessary to win the race, which in the end, that was all the trainer was looking for.

Next stop will be the Travers, maybe a race vs olders in late Sept/early Oct and then train up to the BC Classic. With Nafzger's precise schedule and track record for having his horses ready for the spot that is the ultimate destination (Derby, BC Juvy) combined with the fact that SS is bound to improve off the Dandy, even more so third off the layoff (like the Derby) in a prep for the BCC or the BCC itself, along with a natural maturing horse late in a three year old campaign, I'm not sure how you can be overly disappointed in SS's performance in the Dandy.

Crushing fields did nothing to help Bernardini in the BCC last year, he got a look in the eye and spit the bit. Street Sense will go into the BCC well tested and well prepared.

LOL... why say you know Street Sense could get beat when you don't even know which horses are in the field? :p

I know he ran a fast race, his best race, it happens. I think you may be missing the big picture. This didn't happen overnight for Lawyer Ron. In the past it was not uncommon for horses to come into their own at 4.

For the classic, if they both do make it, at this point I would definetely go with Lawyer Ron headsup. I have this gut feeling though that Street Sense won't make it.

because obvious horses lose all the time.

because Street Sense has been beaten before.

because I don't see him moving forward as a 3yo.

because I know that other 3yo's are developing/improving.

therefore, depending on who shows up in the Travers I do think he is elligible to get beat at miniscule odds.

don't forget rock paper scissors tournaments!

Don't forget....They like to show how many Hot Dogs some A-Hole can eat.

then isn't he doing it wrong?!?!;)

:D

you are right on about Nafzger and how he maps out a plan to have the horse peak on the big days. Also you have listed two very big days that SS has delivered on already, the BCJ and the Derby. I look at it this way, what else is there to prove with the horse? does he really need the classic to prove he is an elite horse? no. But the rest of the field in the classic will.

I'm not convinced about how much more improvement we're going to see from him. He is the first horse to carry over his winning form from the juvenile to the derby. What a huge step it would be to keep it going through the fall and win the classic. Totally unprecedented. When you talk about a naturally improving 3yo I think more about a horse that is only now coming into his peak form, for the first time. Not about a horse who at two ran the fastest juvenile ever.

we'll see how it turns out, count me as skeptical of him reaching new heights.

I disagree about Bernardini last year. No shame in how he ran in the classic, I wouldn't call it spitting the bit. He lost to an extraordinary horse, a better horse, but his race in the classic was exceptional.

Circumstances can beat a superior horse.

Lawyer Ron is one race removed from losing to Gottcha Gold at 1/9 odds.

Gottcha Gold was one of six wire-to-wire winners from 8 dirt races that day at Monmouth. The other two pacesetters finished 2nd and 3rd, one of which at 43/1 odds. Several of the wire-to-wire winners that day didn't exactly figure...one of them won by 6 blowout lengths at 30/1 odds after setting a fast pace.

Now, Lawyer Ron ran a 108 Beyer figure against the grain of the powerful speed bias when defeated at MTH last out. It's hard to argue that a losing effort to Gottcha Gold was an indentical performance to winning the Whitney in track record time, however....it's not so hard to argue that a horse capable of running a 108 Beyer against the teeth of a strong speed bias, is very capable of "improving" to a 115 in a truly and fairly run race.

Street Sense had another lovely inside-out trip in the Jim Dandy, but he didn't get the wicked pace he needs to produce his best form...and thus was unable to make that spectacular far turn move that single handedly can break open a race that is run with a crazy fast pace (as the BC Juvie, Derby, and Preakness all happened to be run.) The 2nd place horse in the Dandy is elidgible for N1X alw races, and the terrible Cowtown Cat...was reasonably competitive in that race.

For Street Sense to win the Breeders Cup Classic, he's going to need another one of those scorching fast paces coupled with another rail skimming ride from Borel.

I would prefer Lawyer Ron's chances of those two at this stage. However, there are three capable horses running in the Haskell, and I would not be surprised at all if something really steps up and runs a career top in that race, of the big three.

LOL, how could I forget? To me, horse racing failed once again. SS, the Derby winner, running in a pretty full field against other well known horses and no TV. (other than TVG) Simply is amazing to say the least. All you need to do is run a few commercials days before and the "non racing fans" would be interested in seeing SS run. Maybe not all, but most would at least watch if they were home or DVR the race. But no, the "hard core racing fans" are able to watch while the average person has no idea SS was even running. Very sad ABC, NBC, or ESPN didn't pick it up. Another chance to market this great sport, and once again, failed.

I think it is beyond silly to say Street Sense needs to stay on the rail. I also don't think he needs a great setup to beat Lawyer Ron going 10f, just an average one.