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Quote:

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

Good stuff, Randall, though I'm heading more towards "the sky is falling" the more I read on the housing loan situation, which is now spilling into auto loan. I sure hope I'm wrong.

There is some theorizing that what we're seeing is the end of what has been considered the American Way of Life (really just for the past 50 years, but people get quickly adjusted to being comfortable)- interesting blog post:

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.c...er****_nation/

I also found comments on John Cole's Balloon-Juice's thread, "We Are All Sub-prime, Now" interesting reading:

http://www.balloon-juice.com/?p=9510#comments

I don't know what I think about it- I'm not good at snap judgments so I have to mull most things, but I do think this is bigger than a year-long recession.

And I don't think the gov't will leave things alone and let the industries that should fail, fail. They didn't during the junk-bond scandal of the 1980's- instead, they bailed out the industry and passed the bill along to you and me. Or rather, my parent, as I wasn't working yet, though I'm sure I'm probably still paying for it, as our DT'ers kids will be paying for Iraq. Borrow and spend, that's our Administration's way. And Americans adopted it as their own way, too.

It's funny when I get accused of favoring "redistribution of income" because what we have now is just as much about redistribution of income; it's just that it's distributing it upwards, through corporate welfare, inflated executive salary, underpaid rank-and-file workers and an increasingly regressive tax rate. Who was it who said it was wrong that his secretary paid a higher tax rate than he did? Buffet? Gates? One of them. The US gov't has a great hand in redistributing income- it sends it to the top, where most of it stays. Hey, if you're satisfied with how things are going, great; you know how to vote in 2008. Me, I don't think that's right; I prefer a society with a middle class. And I don't think a higher top tax rate will lead to violence and rioting in the streets- Europe has a lot of riots, but I don't recall any being linked to the tax rate. The wealthy don't resort to violence; they don't have to. They resort to white-collar crime and bribing gov't officials.

We've been redistributing income upwards for 50 years now, while at the same time telling middle- and lower-class Americans they can still have it all and not pay for it and now the cracks are really starting to show. It took us quite a while to get here, and it'll take quite a while to get back out. If we can- now we also deal with a world that is catching up to us, and is going to want their fair share of the resource pie. And that's not going to shift back in our favor- the US share of the world GNP is declining and it's going to continue. And as their purchasing power increases, we may see ourselves competing for the same cheap crap we depend on them selling us now. And we don't have the manufacturing jobs to make it ourselves.

As for solutions? I don't know. Re-regulate the credit industry for one- put a limit on interest rates so Americans in debt have a chance to dig themselves back out. Regulate loaning. And yes, for once, let the companies that should go under, go under.

But how do you tell Americans to save when the nation's economy depends on them going shopping?

There are a lot of foreclosed houses in the neighborhood I'm in right now (I'm living out of town for a few weeks)- it's really depressing.

I wonder if maybe the Baby Boomers are really God's chosen people- born after the Great Depression and most of them will die before the bill fully comes due for the easy life most of them lived, economically speaking.

(No offense to the Boomers- very grateful for Civil Rights and Women's Lib and all that. The Beatles were pretty good, too. ;) )

Thanks for posting, Randall. Good to hear from you again.

GR how old are you?
The sell off that is going
on... I see opportunity.
I am not close to retiring.
I lived through a real estate
crisis in th 80's. Panic. Followed
by a war. Panic.
The 90's turned very good.

China and India rearing up
has the possibility of being
very good for the US in some
scenarios.

There are also large sections
of the country that are not
getting hit as hard by the mortage
debacle.

Next five years there is going
to be some very big innovation
in medicine, pollution control,
nanotechnology, I think.

Much pain now. I dont think
the market reacts 5 years ahead
though. If one has money, I think
its buy time. I am looking at
a longer time frame and I am
optimistic.

i've been reading sky is falling, we're heading for a recession talk for a few years now.
then you read economists who say we are NOT headed in that direction. then you see conflicting news, sales up, the dow is down, but unemployment is falling, new jobs are rising.

the housing market was inflated a couple of years ago, with people and banks falling all over each other trying to get anyone into a home-including people who had NO business buying. they talked themselves into getting an ARM, and then hoped like hell it didn't adjust up--which shows incredible naivete.
now those who dug too deep are in too deep, and banks who overreached are hurting.

so, those who are in the right position will make out, as always. those who are ready to buy are waiting til the price gets low enough.

a lot of this could be avoided by people who find themselves in trouble getting on the phone with their debtors, and coming up with a solution. but too many ignore the second and third notices, stick their head in the sand, and then find they've gotten in way too deep to get out.

and so the businesses who find themselves in a tailspin suddenly want US (the govt) to bail them out for their over-reaching. it's ridiculous.

but i also remember years ago hearing how the american dream was ending, that home ownership was going down, etc, etc. ebb and flow. we've been thru this (and worse) before, and we'll get thru it again. and again. and again.

Danzig and Pgardn, obviously I hope you're both right and I'm wrong- I don't want an economic tailspin any more than anyone else. But looking over the past 50 years, it seems that in most every major field, energy, food, etc., we've been paying far less than the actual costs of things. And at some point that has to come due. We were protected before by a lack of globalization and the fact that large population nations like China, India etc., were so far behind us, economically and developmentally. They're not so far behind anymore, and they're not going back- our portion of the world GNP is shrinking, and it's going to keep shrinking, simply because they've become more productive. And we've not put enough money into our own infrastructure and we're starting to see the effects of that.

If the rest of the world wasn't coming up so fast I would think we might have time to right what we've been doing wrong and still be the top economic power, but I think we're seeing the end of empire. Again, though, very much hope you're right and I'm wrong.

Danzig, I think you're right, too, that the gov't will bail out these companies and their predatory lending practices. Or rather, you and I will be bailing them out, as it's our money the government will take to do it. And while I agree about people needing to take responsibility for their actions, in the case of the sub-prime loans, I think much of the responsibility falls on the companies- persuading people of the value of something to the extent that you make them let go of their common sense is the trade of the huckster and the swindler, and it's why we have anti-fraud laws.

But of course, we've all merrily bought our cheap food and our cheap gas for years, without thinking anything of it, so maybe it's no surprise we would also expect cheap housing.

And yeah, pgardn, I do think a lot of people will figure out how to make money out of the current situation; I'm just not sure how yet. But, in the meantime, I'll continue to stay out of debt and put money towards retirement (though I am looking at moving more of my money into mutual funds focused on the international market. Though I'm the genius who got into the market just about at its peak in 2000. D'oh! I did benefit from continuing to invest during the low years right after, so yay for dollar-cost averaging.)

PS- Morty, I am, as always, flattered by your obsession with me. I hope things are okay with you, though. While, judging from most of the posts of yours I've read, I understand you dislike women, that's okay with me- hey, I dislike raisins (though the difference between us being that I will, on occasion, eat a raisin. ;) ). We can't all like everything. But previously, your posts were often amusing enough to more than make up for the vitriol. Sadly, now, they seem more angry than anything else- your most recent post is, I believe, the first one that expressed a wish I would die in an accident (unless you've posted that earlier; I confess my reading of your posts has dropped off lately). I do hope whatever is going on in your life works itself out soon. I'll play the National Anthem for you if that will help.

And yeah, pgardn, I do think a lot of people will figure out how to make money out of the current situation; I'm just not sure how yet. But, in the meantime, I'll continue to stay out of debt and put money towards retirement (though I am looking at moving more of my money into mutual funds focused on the international market. Though I'm the genius who got into the market just about at its peak in 2000. D'oh! I did benefit from continuing to invest during the low years right after, so yay for dollar-cost averaging.)

Well I dont know exactly how to make money
investing right now as I just cant keep up.
Dollar cost averaging and mutual funds,
especially index funds seem the best way to
me. I just cant spend the time looking over
all these individual companies and then trying
to figure out if Wall Street actually sees the
company as I see it. Very tough.

And I dont know that I am correct in my 5 year
assessment. I hope I am. Larger Foreign investment
in this country not only means the dollar is cheap,
it also indicates that the world has faith in the
economy of this country.

PS- Morty, I am, as always, flattered by your obsession with me. I hope things are okay with you, though. While, judging from most of the posts of yours I've read, I understand you dislike women, that's okay with me- hey, I dislike raisins (though the difference between us being that I will, on occasion, eat a raisin. ). We can't all like everything. But previously, your posts were often amusing enough to more than make up for the vitriol. Sadly, now, they seem more angry than anything else- your most recent post is, I believe, the first one that expressed a wish I would die in an accident (unless you've posted that earlier; I confess my reading of your posts has dropped off lately). I do hope whatever is going on in your life works itself out soon. I'll play the National Anthem for you if that will help.
===========

r u saying you actually pay attention to what I say..even though you say you don't??

I do not wish for you to die...especially since you would like me to eat you.I merely said perhaps a good,strong collision with a very hard object might snap some sense into you.

I ,in truth, adore your mind as I find women with minds very rare.

What do you do when alone at night...in the dark?

I have a feeling it's not hand shadows.

PS- Morty, I am, as always, flattered by your obsession with me. I hope things are okay with you, though. While, judging from most of the posts of yours I've read, I understand you dislike women, that's okay with me
==============

I'm picking and choosing here..if you don't mind.

I am proud as punch that you enjoy my infatuation with you..and things are ok with me.

I am also giddy over the fact you have judged me to be a woman hater...and that you only read the posts centered on that hatred. ..and that it is "ok" with you.

It's just all this doesn't follow..ya know?

A non sequitur...ya might say.

Do you fellatio-poo on the first date...by the way?

I'll play the National Anthem for you if that will help.
=========

Oh don't bother...if it's not good enough for the nfl...it certainly is not good enough for a mere Earthling.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Genny sweetie....does she resemble you in any way?

MDF....im quite sure if you had the pleasure to meet GenuineCrazyLady, you would be quite fond of her.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

MDF....im quite sure if you had the pleasure to meet GenuineCrazyLady, you would be quite fond of her.

How do you know I'm not now?

I don't think most of you quite pick up the subcarrier.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mortimer

How do you know I'm not now?

I don't think most of you quite pick up the subcarrier.

I put in a few good words for you...just so that she may enjoy the pleasure of reading your posts again.

you can thank me later...

Let me put it this way...most of you approach with your best shiny face on,but with evil thoughts in your minds.

That's not fair to your prey.

I come in the back door...by surprise...and display my worst possible side.There is a point where some will hear that tune...and say ....."HEY!!...This guy's SWELL!!!"

But don't ever call me a fucl<ing azzhole over nothing.

See what ahm sayin' ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

I put in a few good words for you...just so that she may enjoy the pleasure of reading your posts again.

you can thank me later...

You're very kind.

So you have met her?

Does she have nice legs and an admirable dupa?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mortimer

Let me put it this way...most of you approach with your best shiny face on,but with evil thoughts in your minds.

That's not fair to your prey.

I come in the back door...by surprise...and display my worst possible side.There is a point where some will hear that tune...and say ....."HEY!!...This guy's SWELL!!!"

But don't ever call me a fucl<ing azzhole over nothing.

See what ahm sayin' ?

Sissy....preying isn't about being fair.

You sir, have become weak.

Goodbye...my work here is done.

move along...nothing here for you to see anymore.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Sissy....preying isn't about being fair.

You sir, have become weak.

Goodbye...my work here is done.

move along...nothing here for you to see anymore.

!!!!!!!!!!!!

ror!!

rule-eng un ze flour!!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mortimer

I heard the tune.:) You are a "swell" guy.

Back to the original post, I live within my budget, no charge cards ( if I don't have the cash, I don't buy it), and at this point, only have my mortgage in terms of any loan. It will be paid off in 5 years. I find it hard to have sympathy for people who overextended themselves and have been living on credit the last few years. Should have realized they'd eventually have to pay up.

P.S. To Morty-I put the heater on in the basement for you (and so my pipes don't freeze!).:D

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

......You are a "swell" guy...
...
...
P.S. To Morty-I put the heater on in the basement for you...:D

Are we gonna need to douse you two with a bucket of water ...?

spray them down with a garden hose....

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Are we gonna need to douse you two with a bucket of water ...?

Cherish the thought!