Have to speak up for the champ here. He (Street Sense) gallops faster than most horses run. Holding either of his two preps against him is futile; both in number and in substance, he beat a nice colt in AGS, in Tampa, off the bench and "won" the Bluegrass over a course he intensely dislikes.

For "ATeam".... works are very important for "the Derby". Perhaps the poly will change trainers approach, but almost all Derby winners have always worked well at CD. Similar to before his Breeders Cup tour de force, 'Sense worked a nothing half at CD, then coasted home a convincing winner. Many say, his trip was aided because of the percieved rail bias, but as I recall he won the race in a matter of seven strides and won with plenty left.

AJim... Curlin, is as outclassed a runner as you will find. Dismissing him on class is not a difficult decision. After all "How many Grade I horse has he faced ? Beat? Grade II's? You get the picture. If he beats half the field it would surprise most cappers.

DrugS... Lately, your posts have been terrific. BBB

Cobalt Blue was also taken back off a slow pace, while racing wide, against the grain of an inside-speed track. Same thing as Hard Spun in the Southwest.

I know you didn't say he was a fraud---I was just saying what I would have said---had I seen footage of the race, and had not been aware of all the details I mentioned.

As for your final sentance--like I said, we seem to view both pace handicapping and trip handicapping very differently. I didn't mean that as a put-down...but you seem to have taken it as one.

Perhaps---he will be beaten double digits in the Derby.

The Tesio winner, that won under a Ramon Dominguez hand ride last weekend, was also soundly beaten in the Rebel

So you feel Cobalt Blue threw in the towel and gave up 13 lengths in the stretch solely because of the trip and inside bias? If so we really do see races differently. I mean he was passed by horses that raced as wide or wider and were twice as far off the pace.

The fact that Cobalt Blue was a few lengths behind the slow pace, and was not on the inside path, might have explained why he couldn't catch Cowtown Cat that day, but it doesn't explain his rapid fade in the stretch. He was never more than a couple lengths behind the slow pace and wasn't all that wide either. I suspect that his poor performance had much more to do with the fact that he simply may not be as good as his recent SA form might suggest, or perhaps the horse was not really ready for the race, being pushed too fast, perhaps he doesn't ship well, perhaps the absensce of Bute, etc.

I said in a prior post about Cobalt Blue's performance "the most hardened students of trip handicapping will tell you his race was every bit as good as his stake win at SA last time out."

In the SA Stake race, he was basically allowed to walk on an uncontested lead, through very soft early fractions. He went from the trip of a lifetime, to, for a horse with his style, the trip from hell.

In both Hard Spun's Southwest and CB's race---you had a lightly raced speed horse, who's connections came into the race with the plan of taking back and rating from off the pace for the first time. Both horses found themselves off the pace, and racing wide, over strongly inside-speed tracks.

IMO, it's a recipe for a career worst performance. I have no problem if you don't agree with that--and I bet you surely are in the strong majority.

In Hard Spun's case, I predicted minutes before the race, albeit on another board, that he would surely lose that race. And when he did lose the race, I strongly defended his performance before he came back and proved an easy winner in the Lane's End.

I only say that, because I don't want to sound like I bet him and it's all just a case of sour grapes.

An academic question now, but: Why did they run CObalt Blue at HAW anyhow? Someone brought up that pt. at the time of the race and the answer was not really satisfactory. In retrospect; he ran in 15 degree weaterh with a windchill when he could have been back in sunny Calif, running against, well KingoRox; Notional etc.

He was even money in a Grade 2 stake race, with a $500K purse---and you ask why he ran there?

For the record--he kind of stinks. His win at SA was phony, and though he had every reason in the world to run like crap---he still was beaten over 20 in that moderate Hawthorne race.