mrs btw..is a m.i t grad..congrats andy..

Also, with the addendum that Andy pointed out, this will go much faster. Could be done within two weeks.

No, the ones winning help you, as you get the place money and can't have a positive exacta result. Y must equal zero in that variation. In other words, you have two possible positive results and the exacta has only one.

The reason Brian's " outlyer " ( the $300 exacta ) has to count is there will be outlyers of HUGE prices that run first or second and beef up the place result where there is zero cash in the exacta. You should hit the exacta somewhere close to 40% of the time WHEN YOU FINISH SECOND.

That's what I'm saying it will help me tremendously when they win. So the more winning the better.

Ok if I factor in the win bets, then that doubles the exacta bets, as the original premise was bet $50WP, or $100 on the exacta.

So these totals reflect $2 WP on each race with a 10-1+ shot in the top two, versus a $4 cold exacta with the favorite over said 10-1+ shot.

$4 Exacta: $2,512.40
$2WP: $1,576.70

I'm not trying to say that it's not possible that the numbers wouldn't even out over time, but over these 18 race days -- when factoring in the win money gained from a $2 WP bet, it closed the gap only by a miniscule percentage.

There aint no " mrs ", how do you think I am able to live my ridiculous life, but the person I ask is, in fact, an MIT grad coincidentally.

Buzz, you did it wrong again. You are doubling the exacta.

We are only looking at one part of the total wager.....$2 to place versus $2 below the favorite in the exacta. We are trying to determine which is a better hedge.

He's doubling it because you are doubling the money bet on the other side. However, it is not at all what we are looking at.

The closer argument to his last numbers is $2 WP or a $2 exacta box.

Yes. He has misunderstood the original bet....When I start scoring, everyone and their mother can double check it and make sure we are scoring the right way. it will be fair...People are getting ahead of themselves are not understanding the point of this.

I can give you chart information for Gulfstream from the beginning of February tomorrow or thursday night if you'd like to check that further (John Stewart is coming on in a few :) )

That was the first set of numbers I did, with no regard to anything else.

Sorry if I misunderstood the original premise that created the question to begin with, I thought it was the $50 WP vs $100 Exacta that started the whole thing...

Ho-hum.

[quote=brianwspencer]Ok if I factor in the win bets, then that doubles the exacta bets, as the original premise was bet $50WP, or $100 on the exacta.

BINGO, and that's why this is troubling me. Thank you Bryan. We're getting away from my original statement. Far away.

This bet was not about win betting, this was about place betting. Go back to my original post, where I told you to look at today's 6th at GP. If you want to look at a $50 place bet, etc, .....something's not jiving with my original point. I've got to refer back.

i thought there was some grey matter involved..and congrats on your lone wolf lifestyle..you and byk...the dice man meets sam ace rothstine..no problems no nagging...gotta love it......:D

Only in the second one.

You better relax on the certainty that you are right here....as you probably are not.

Brian's pretty smart. He knows what he's looking at.

[quote=Grits]WHAT? It's pretty clear how this works. If we do this on a 2 dollar bet, essentially I have 2$ win and place on a horse. You have 2$ to win and 2$ with the favorite over top in the exacta. That is exactly what it is!!

Paging Stephen Hawking, please call your office.

[quote=randallscott35]Double checking this is correct. 2$WP on a 10-1 or greater shot vs. 2$win and 2$ exac with fave over longshot. That should come out perfectly.

win vs. win/pl.
 

My standard play is $50 to win and $25 ex. box with my key horse and my second choice in the race. Or $25 ex. keying my horse over 2 horses. I have never understood the bet to win then turn around and key my horse in second only! A place bet is a hedge, i prefer to hedge with an exacta. I am kinda like Andy Beyer in that if am right I want to be really right and if my opion was wrong I didn't deserve to cash, anyhow. Perfect example is today in the last race @G.P my key horse #4 @ 7-1 paid only $7.40 to place, even with a 56-1 winning the race. One more example is my friend @ the OTB I attend is a $200 WP guy. He refuses to play an exacta. There are alot times that my $100 cashes for alot more than his $200 place bets. P.S. I'm really looking forward to the Youbet shows Andy!!

[quote=randallscott35]Andy and RS, before we finalize everything would both of you go back to page 4 of the "Closest You've Come" thread, read that page, read what each of us stated as instances, and make sure for me, that we're all on the same page with our conditions.

I don't wanna have to call my CPA in the morning.