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-   -   Closest you have come to the big score... (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10528)

ELA 03-05-2007 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
Eric, the school of thought is take advantage of the pools. Wait till the end to bet. If there is enought value in a large field in the show pool with a vulnerable fave, I have no problem betting to show either...But win/place on price horses is a fine way to go. I can't stomach 20-1 shots I bet finishing second and getting nothing. Simply not worth it.

That is exactly what my "risk management" mindset automatically reverts to, LOL. Thanks.

Eric

AeWingnut 03-05-2007 08:57 PM

full swing and miss
 
I play long shots and I've messed up so many bets with them that I am numb. The pivotal moment was when I bet Vision and Verse over Lemon Drop Kid, Charismatic and Best of Luck. I was going to make another bet with LDK on top but got in an argument with some drunk that sat at my table. to this day I think about running him and his wore out wife over with my car until they are nothing but a stain.

The Super paid over $140k at Sportsman's Park because the great Pat Day finished off the board.

Had Sarava missed the trifecta

There was a race last year at Laurel
I looked at the 80-1 shot several times but just couldn't get him there. The numbers I bet were 3-5-9. they came in behins the 8 and the Super paid over $200k. I don't claim to have missed the Super. Never considered betting it but that's all I remember as far as payouts go.

Oh, bet the Exacta with 3 other horses keying Not Phone in California...
they all came in and it paid over $20k for $1 Superfecta.

I did really well in the Breeder's Cup last year. Just couldn't get the big payoff. hit the tri int he Juv Colts. Shoulda bet the Super it was so easy. Yet early int he day. then hit Rond Pond but only hot exacta :-(
only hit win bet on Thor's Echo left out the place horse..

anyway like anyone is still reading this rambling mess

My biggest actual payout was a Superfecta at Mountaineer. keyed the first 3 places and then hit all. Didn't have the ongshot in the all spot but actually picked him to run third. Paid $4k for the $2 Super. I usually only bet $1 exotics but I chose $2 for the exacta and forgot to switch back to $1. Cashed $4,800 on one race.

POINTGIVEN1985 03-05-2007 09:40 PM

i guess i have another one, which happen this past saturday....

santa anita in the kilroe mile, this one was really bad i was already having a horrible day and this was the absolute icing on the cake....

i love kip deville and i always play win place but for some strange reasson i did not, i played a $10 triple wheel my play was this....

kip deville/Bayeux, Silent Name/After Market


this is the worst play i have ever made, because i had the race figured out and i bet it horrible. i have always loved after market not to long ago i was on here saying he was super talented and could have a huge year then he lost in that gulfstream allowance and he was kinda forgotten i figured he could run third and make a large tri... but instead of me putting the 2 horses i used for second in third with after market i just put after market in third and lost out on a huge triple, even if i had it the way it was i would have took $700, 5 times because i played a $10 wheel

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2007 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
So have you had any near misses for $500K or more?

I was alive to Honest Lady in the last leg of the huge carryover when she was even money and Bailey got shut off on the rail. That one might have been $200K.

I once played powerball and had one of the numbers.

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2007 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
Not a problem, to disagree makes the world go 'round, but if you put that longshot in an exacta with the winner, then you've got something, honey. A fine exacta. Again, forget place betting, put the choice in your exacta.

You're absolutely right. Place betting is a mistake. You use the price horse in exactas, and while you may not always cash, when you do it much more than makes up for any lost winnings from place bets.

There should be a bumper sticker that says " Real Horseplayers don't bet to Place ".

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2007 11:17 PM

Look, if somebody has a betting strategy and it ACTUALLY works for them, then who am I, or anyone, to criticize them. However, considering the dramatic difference in what one would make over the long term with a moderately intelligent exacta back-up I do not believe that place bets are the more profitable way to go.

Then there is the extreme horsplayer....Andy Beyer...who could be alive in the last leg of the Pick-6 with three horses and box them in exactas and tris.

pointman 03-05-2007 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus
I worked with an old-time racing guy -- he knew everything that went on at Roosevelt Raceway when Filion and Abbatiello were the big guns -- who swore by big place bets.

That is because they were often racing for second.

Kasept 03-06-2007 05:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
true story, tho noone believed me then and won't believe me now...huge carryover at, i believe it was the duct...all kinds of dt'rs(espners then) puttin together tickets and im'ing each other and sending money across the country...i told my future widower/betting partner about it and he capped it, but i messed up the time zones (again) and got to the otb too late...he had 5/6 on his 1dolla ticket, and who did he miss...the same horse little o, steve, scavs, hooves, dell and everyone else did...VASA-(that bitch)---the difference is, he had written "BOMB" in his drf next to her and told me if i had come in with my buck we woulda had the 80k---that's why we're not married yet-cheapskate:mad:

Your short term memory needs a little help here Sharon. I wanted Vasa on the ticket and was over-ruled in the group conversation, otherwise we take that whole pool. Hooves will back that up.

Kasept 03-06-2007 05:56 AM

There are two Derby opportunities that stand out.

In 2001, my pal Phil, BBQ Bill and I each ponied $40 for a $1 Super Box in the Derby. My rankings on the top contenders were Point Given, Thunder Blitz, Monarchos, Congaree, Jamaican Rum and Invisible Ink. Left Ink off the play in favor of Jamaican Rum. Those were the top 6 finishers. Super paid $64,000.

Derby 2005, older Derby Trail readers know my top 4 ranked contenders were Bellamy Rd., High Fly, Afleet Alex and Closing Argument with Giacomo as the #1 Longshot Candidate. Keyed both Bellamy and High Fly over the other four in tri's instead of the usual box. Tri paid, what?, $112,000? Had Giacomo across the board and Closing Argument PL-SH though, so it wasn't totally depressing, but it wasn't a record trifecta payout either...

Biggest hits were Derby '95, BC '01 and the Four Star Dave the year Dr. Kashnikow won with Tubrok second.

MisterB 03-06-2007 06:32 AM

Why is the topic Closest, and everyone is talking about the BANGS??

Anyway, I've been close allot


robfla 03-06-2007 06:32 AM

the breeders cup where ghostzapper won.. I bought a pick4 ticket.. ouija board -all - all - ghostzapper. cancelled the ticket. and played ouija board - all - kitten joy - all .. of course KJ lost.. the original ticket paid 46,791.20 for $2

Samarta 03-06-2007 06:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
this past BC...singled Dreaming Of Anna, used Street Sense, singled Oujia Board. Was alive to 5 horses in the Sprint...and Thors Echo was not 1 of them. Will pays were anywhere from $1,500 to $10,000 if memory serves me right.

This past BC as well...Distaff....this was best bet I never placed....I remember saying on this board that Round Pond, Happy Ticket, and Balletto are locks if all are 100% and trips are ok...well I never thought there would be 2 breakdowns, but I don't think that would have mattered. Well long story short, my pc had crashed, so I was going to have to go to the otb to bet, but I also had to juggle that with our annual Breeder's Cup get together we have. I ended up getting wrapped up in something around the house and didn't go to make my bets....$1 tri paid $4,400 and change. Kev called me as soon as the race was over and I can't recall what I said but it was something that I'm sure Steve would send me to the DT penalty box if I repeated....:o

phystech 03-06-2007 10:01 AM

Had a horse I owned that I'd claimed for $C5k. He'd won two races after I claimed him then he went sour, didn't hit the board in 4 or 5 races and was beaten everytime by over 20.

Gave him 60 days off, then 60 more to train back to a race. On paper his form looked terrible coming off the layoff. In the paddock, my trainer just looked at me and for the first time ever, said "He's ready to go".

Usually don't bet my horses but played a little over $100 of tri's and ex's. He went off 14-1. Hit with a Lake horse and a Capuano horse underneath and walked out with over $6k in my pocket.

Turned around and ran him two weeks later in the 9f Old Man Winter at Philly Park. Hammered him again in the tri's with two of Lake's horses and walked out of there with over $10k.

Used the cash to buy another horse - spent what was left in about 6 months training/feeding his sorry, slow......

brianwspencer 03-06-2007 10:18 AM

Plain and simple, back on the ESPN boards for the 2004 BC contest we had. I went to Portland Meadows and played win bets and few tris on the races there.

For our contest, and for my win bets, I had the late pick-4, which included Wilko and Better Talk Now as my top choices. Sadly. I didn't play pick-X bets often then that day, except my mom and I took a stab at the pick-6.

We had the late four on our pick-6 ticket after missing the first two, and no pick-4 to show for it, which would have paid in the neighborhood of $50K.

And then once at Arlington, I was alive to one horse in the 10th on a late pick-4 that would have paid something in the ballpark of $9K, and it ran third.

Ho-hum.


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