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It's nice to be back.. this thread might have 200 posts by now if not for the server problem. I'm going by my own evaluation, not statistics, but I don't believe the Sciametta firsters at Gulf were winning at a high percentage. Yesterday he finishes 1/2 with 2 firsters.. and who still thinks uncoupling is a good thing? With 2 or 3 in a race, we basically have to guess which one runs (I guessed wrong in the Hutchison).

Steve, I saw your post on the Thorograph board, what say you on this?

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Your eyes aren't deceiving you(their horses often don't feel fatigue.)

And Pletcher's horses appear not to fatigue because he...

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSH

Gets back to the question i have been struggling for these past few years. Are these high percentage trainers (Pletcher, Frankel, Dutrows, etc.) high percentage trainers because: a) they simply get the best horses b) are doing something more than their lower trainer percentage counterparts - extra vitamins, better water, or whatever else that they can afford from their higher day rates or, c) they are not playing on a level playing field (CHEATING!)

or is it a combination of all three depending on who we are talking about....

How does a mid-teen percentage trainer like Contessa all of the sudden turn into a higher percentage trainer? Is it simply the winter track at Aqueduct and a good part of his competition is gone?

How does a high percentage trainer like Pletcher all of the sudden go cold like he did at Saratoga in 2005 after the first few days? There was a rumor that Mrs. Whitney had a security guard placed at his barn... Can not believe that one....

Just makes one wonder...

PSH

I think that all of your variables are a factor. First off they have so many horses and owners that they only have to race horses when everything is perfect. If you have 5 horses for the same condition you just run the one that gives you the best chance of winning. That ability can make you very strong as a trainer. Same as a big claiming trainer who is likely to have more than one horse for each price. He can drop them and raise them with impunity because he already has a replacement if they get claimed.
Guys like Pletcher and Dutrow are spending a whole lot more on vets than most trainers because they dont care if the owners bitch or take the horses. That is not to say that all or any extra vet work will help. Slow horses are slow horses and the fact is that no vet work or vitamins will help. Believe me if you could "vet work" your way to the winners circle, we would all do it. Dont forget that these guys like Pletcher, Dutrow, etc more often than not have one of the best horses in the race, they rarely run real longshots which will help your %'s.
The fact that nothing ever changes when these guys get 30-60 day suspensions says a lot. If you havea lot of really good horses and a good program you will win, period.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Great post.

Eric