Wow, I bet Grunder would be extremely jealous if he found out.................

Sunday Early P4 first leg
 

Initially thought Ness was a single here, but upon further review, this one has me concerned..
turf to dirt + routes he's 2 of 6 (much classier animals to boot) and this one is average against 2 or 3 others in here even with the class relief - also clear that this one hasn't exactly been taking to "the program" as the horse has actually been flat or even regressed a little since he was claimed by Midwest.

The last effort over his preferred surface was alarmingly dull off the freshening as well.

This early sequence will pay well if you get past him as he is even money on the morning line and will probably go off at 2-5

The 9 horse in the first race is the type that befuddles me. Why is KOC dropping to MCL 8k when she just finished within 5 lengths of Scorecard? Does she want rid of the horse? Probably. There has to be a physical issue, but the question that handicappers need to figure out is whether she has enough in her to beat these nags. Conventional wisdom says yes, but the price will be below even money.

I'm going to side with Black Tie Voyage stretching out at hopefully much juicier odds. Now, if only Ademar Santos puts her on the front where she belongs and doesn't try to get cute.

A strong south wind today. Pushing them down the backside and in their faces coming home.

7 tries under Ness with no wins and 4 seconds = rat, no matter what the competition is. He puts them where they can win and this one won't do it. No way I single this one.

Conditions and changes
 

Anyone have conditions and changes for Sunday?

Thanks
 

Anyone guessing on the Turf forecast or main condition with T-Storms in the forecast. Want to chase the Pick-5, but don't want to blow a bunch of time capping if the card will be half scratches.

The people with college degrees in meteorology don't know. I am capping for both on the turf and off/wet. Forecast is for rain late, early part of the card should be okay.

That horse could come out of the barn with 3 legs and still stumble home past these - Agree the 1 looks like the only thing in here with any ability besides the 9

Now calling for possible showers early in the card , clearing late :zz::wf

http://www.weather.com/weather/hourb...graph/USFL0363

I got a better idea, why don't you step outside and look up!:p

Cloudy and windy as hell outside - wind is supposed to lay down after the front comes through - whenever that is... according to weather.com, about 2pm ish...for now. Will change 6 times before now and then...

Weather looks to be OK. Good luck fellas!

2,3,4,6 / 1,2,10 / 4,9 / 2,3 / 6,8,9
2,3,4 / 3,5 / 4 / 2,3 / 6,9
2,3,4 / 1,2,10 / 14 / 2,3 / 6,9
$102 total

6th: 3,6,8
7th: 1,2,4,5,10,12
8th: 1,4,14
9th: 2,3
10th: 6

$54

Tampa Tuesday!!! Really it's Wednesday, but it feels like an old school Tampa Tuesday with very few other tracks running.

Early Pick 4 thoughts:

Race 3 - Clm 10000 N3L 6f Dirt

7 - Like a Dream - First off the claim for Dennis Ward. Has the tactical speed to sit off Bohicket (and others) and get first run.
6 - Bruno Cino - Dropping back to the proper level and will enjoy the class relief. Nice work since his last effort.
1 - Karmanos - Another dropper. Lures Goncalves or I wouldn't be as interested. A chance to close in a race loaded with speed.

Race 4 - MCL 8000 7f Dirt

8 - Holy Barbara - Not thrilled with this one, but she appears to be the one. Claimed off Ward and didn't exactly shine. I'll give her one more chance but it looks like the form may be fading from where she was with Ward.
3 - Maria's Eyes - Coming in from GP, with a substantial drop. Serpa/Gulyas connected on their only try of the meet together.
2 - Sassy Lil Fox - Been in against some good ones on the grass. Dirt race was okay, will be running late if the speed backs up.
4 - Treasure Hunt - Too much respect for Delacour to leave off. Eerily similar to the O'Connell horse that failed in the first on Sunday.
5 - Solictude - I know, I know, but there really doesn't have to be much improvement for this one to be in the mix.

Race 5 - OC62k N3X 5f Turf

5 - Pyrite Storm - Appears to be the speed in a race with very little speed. Hopefully Ricardo Feliciano sees it the same way.
3 - Tweedy - Hit the front in a 6f Gr3 but could not hang on last June. Clement will have her ready. Losing 17lbs of weight from her last start and gets Lasix.
2 - Donna Getyourgun - Ran one of the better races of her life off a long layoff.
7 - The Underling - Inconsistent type but her some of her dirt races a good enough to be competitive here. Stalking style may give her first run at Pyrite Storm

Race 6 - MCL 12500 1m40y Dirt

7 - Cafe des Artistes - Not a fan of any horse making his 12th start in the maiden ranks, but 6 of those starts were in NY and 6 on turf. Was way wide sprinting in last, back to two turns today.
5 - Brush to Clear - Second start around two turns and dropping a notch.
9 - Thrill Factor - Stretching out for Goncalves. Bred to love the distance.

1,6,7/2,3,4,5,8/2,3,5,7/5,7,9 $90

Too lazy to write up a late P4 ticket, but here it is pre scractches.

1,3,7,8/2,4/4,6,8,9/8,9 $32

Good luck.

^^^What he said.

I would write up our late Pick 4, but I'm too lazy as well.

Race 4 35,000 ft. Super Hi Five

8/2345/2345/2345/23459 48.00

2/22/12 Race 9 - #1 Johnathan C - is kind of interesting at anywhere near his 20-1 ML (12-1 or better and I'll play W/P) - I like the quick turnaround for capable barn. SCRATCHED

Too lazy as well - Just some spot plays late, as I may not get trackside for a while today - work is blowing up :mad::mad: -

R8) 7 Summer At Susan's - big move up from conditioned 8 to open 12.5, but can't deny this one finds his way to the line here and will be on the ticket at a pretty nice number (SCR - Vet)


R9) - Agree completely with Gus - that's an insane m/l on the 1 Johnathan C and think he'll be 5-1 by post but a must use in horizontals. (SCR- vet)
10 Chief Redneck at 3-1 is a bet against for me - I know Hossy said he would like him when he ran back second time routing, but I think the post kills his chances

R10) 1 Tour de Comprise - horse for course breaking through last time out; should have enough speed from the rail to save ground and could surprise at a nice number

Bigs - No Ness in Race 5?? I know this one's a miler, but the juice knows no distance (SCR) :(

Race 5
$1 pick 3
1, 3, 7/3, 6, 7, 9/1, 4, 7