G-Hog,

While I agree that the typical otb bunch is a fairly sodden crew, I don't believe they account for very much of the handle on an overall basis. I also believe there is only fairly modest large, "educated" wagering done on-track. When I look at a weekday card at Gulf, Aqueduct, etc,... and see there are 3000 people on track accounting for $2 million in handle, I assume there are probably 200-300 people wagering over $200/race and probably 10 times that many wagering less than $10 per race on the on-track races.

Personally, I believe the biggest wagerers are the internet players as well as some Vegas-based handicappers. Just my opinion.

my dart board method has served me well ..lmao,,, and the 2/5 with 2/5 double..lol

Oops.

so true. which makes being a consistent winner almost impossible. mullins took a lot fo grief for his comments but for the most part he spoketh the truth......

I would say the opposite.....


It's amazing how much information IS in the paper if only one is willing ( and able ) to dig deep enough and do the required work. The game is a LOT more logical than most people realize.

Just remember its entertainment and all the work you do, can be lost on a head bob! If you dont bet the farm, have a fun time & come home with a few bucks, how bad can it be ? When in doubt bet the grey horse..:D

Here are 5 more pieces of advice:

1. Keep accurate records of your results.
2. Before betting on a horse, estimate it's chance of winning the race and compare your estimate to the late tote odds. The best way to do that, IMO, is to make a line for all the horses in the race. (and, in case it's not obvious, DON'T bet if the tote odds don't justify it.)
3. Bet very small until you have good evidence that you can win in the long run.
4. Bet less on longshots than you do on favs.
5. Keep accurate records of your results.

Yeah, I repeated one of them. If you want to win, it's very important to know exactly how you are doing overall. It's not enough to say "I win some days and lose some days, but I end up ahead. I think."

--Dunbar

I'd love to hear others' thoughts on this, but the trainer angle, at least for me, has been my worst enemy and my best friend.

I say worst because often times I'll add an extra horse into my bet because "it's the Pletcher" even though I don't really like the horse and I'm probably killing myself in the long run on profit vs. money bet. I'm probably better off just taking a stand against that entry? At the same time, I've included horses (especially in Claimers) because of the trainer involved and it was the right thing to do. Which makes things very confusing, besides the fact that for the beginner capper I think claimers are much harder to figure out.

Frankel - I never bet his first time starters from Europe in Stakes races. It seems they either run off the board or if they do win, they were very overbet.

Class hikes or drops is something I'm really bad at recognizing a positive move...which is where I really rely on the trainer information.

My thoughts on Jazil being entered on Thursday is he is a bet against. McLaughlin can bring a horse off from the layoff better than anyone...me thinks McLaughlin thinks Jazil needs another race (hooray for me ;) )

This thread is well on its' way to making it to the 'Charlie Hatton'... Endlessly entertaining and interesting...

I'll quickly add that I believe it's very possible to make a consistant profit at the track, but it does not involve any one specific set of requirements or procedures.

Each individual player must craft his or her own nuanced approach which utilizes their specific strengths and avoids making the same mistakes too often. Understanding your strengths and weaknesses as a player; capitalizing on those strengths and learning how and where the weaknesses resulted in beats; application of bankroll; and confidence in your own opinion and approach are more important to long term success than any one set of handicapping maxims...

Excellent points, Steve. I've learned that if I want to pick a winner, I must never ever play that horse. Guaranteed that if I DON'T put a dime on the horse, that horse will cross the finish line first. :rolleyes:

I want to bet where you bet if your getting that kind of return.

That's confidential information.

Last Thursday,I cashed the late p4 at ANITA.There is a thread with it.The 4 race win parlay was only a $150/1 payoff(so not Rocket Science,)but the p4 paid about $370/1.I had close calls Friday,Saturday,and Sunday(thank you T. Baze for 2 of those.)Anyways,still chewing on the fat from Thursday,and the reason I mention it,is because I need to find other pick 4 payoffs that are 2.46 x the 4 race win parlay. Does anybody keep statistics on pick 4 payoffs? To me,that is at the heart of answering the original posters question.You want to avoid the tracks where the p4 payouts often pay below the 4 race win parlays.That is like Child Molestation(neither should ever happen.)I've seen that happen too much at Turfway,and the Zia Park/Sunland circuit.I know that Laurel and the Meadowlands have the least take-out,but there again, if you can't cap a certain circuit,then it makes no difference(whiffing is whiffing.)Anyways,my point is that you need to take advantage of the multi-race wagers,but you need to do it at a circuit that

1)you can cap

2)you can rely on fair multi-race wager payoffs(can't play tracks where p4 payoffs are routinely paying below the 4 race win parlay.)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

About a 48 hour flight from you Australia :-) was on my way to my homeland
New Zealand to get married.
What i like about my system is your wife actually lets you go to the pub for a bet because she gets something out of it ;-)

I agree with you, i sometimes dont punt on a horse because i dont like the trainer which is stupid because it's not the horses fault, also i never bet on my own horses because as a trainer i feel you need a impartial view of how your horse ran & money seems to cloud ones thinking.

At my home track, I would estimate that at least 50% of the people in attendance who are gambling are playing the tote board with no form. In the big picture, what % do these type bettors account for in the pools?

Another dart-thrower..

That's me.

I just wish I was more connected to that oh-so-reliable backstretch chatter.

Oh well.

More STEAM!

Whatever dude. I say it's easier when you know rather than guess, but that's just me.

remember, one has to know how to seperate the STEAM from the chatter...;)

I think you got your answer to the question. Take note of how many emphatic "h*ll yes" and "dam* right" responses you got. Most people don't seem to want to answer the question directly. They seem to want to explain how it's done, but they are not saying that they're doing it. You got a lot of "I think you can, if you do this......" answers. OK. Here's my answer.
NO, YOU CAN'T. Now armed with this gem of wisdom, I'm sure you won't be caught anywhere near a racetrack. Right? Me too. Horseplayers, not only are they a bunch of degenerate gamblers, but delusional as well. My apologies to anyone offended. Just joking really.:) Hope there are people out there that are making a lot of money!!!

This plays on individual sensabilities and how one determines the context in which the question was raised.

Can you win? and Do you win more than you lose? may be taken to mean the same things but are completely different questions in there own right.

The beauty of horseracing is that if you structure you bets smartly and utilize a modicum of dicipline you don't have to be correct the majority of the time (like in sports betting) to be ahead. In fact, if you're right 10 - 20% of the time you are usually ahead. I take issue with your assessment that " Horseplayers, not only are they a bunch of degenerate gamblers, but delusional as well." as an uninformed sterotype of something you may have myopically witnessed, and don't require or need your apology as I'm not the least offended by trolls like you.
For the record, I've had the handicapping gods shine on me this year and have emassed over 15K in winnings since January, and have wagered barely 800 bucks. Do the math. I've been *right* about 15% of the time.

You are assuming that the people you listed " know ". I believe that, in general, they don't.

I have won over time for a long time while getting very little information. For the most part I very rarely seek information and only listen to what over time has proven reliable. For the most part I very rarely even ask.

So, it's OK to insult people on the board as long as you are " just joking "?

Frankly, I didn't notice any " hell yes " or " damn right " responses to the initial post and many of the responses did offer different posters' insights.

And just so you, and anyone else as confused as you, are clear....YES YOU CAN. However, winning takes a lot of discipline and hard work. As for some more in depth responses from me as to how one might go about accomplishing this I will refer you as well to the book " Six Secrets... " that was suggested earlier in the thread.

As they say......

"Horseplayers who make the mistake of fraternizing with horsemen will eventually regret it."

I did it.

Happy?

Also, don't drink. Consistently beating 60% of the handicappers sounds like a minor challenge, but many of those people are showing up at the track/OTB early in the afternoon, and they start drinking early. This is a near daily event for many of these people, and they generally are addicted to gambling and playing impaired. They are not playing with 'smart' money.



If I'm going with my "playing smart" plays, but then decide to hang around and play some fun "action" plays just because I don't get to go the the track or OTB that often, I just reduce my bets for the "action" plays.

And I drink on those reduced bet "action" plays. But don't add much to the pools.

I will say I have caught many a nice tri or super on an alcohol induced $36 to $60 "action" play when I had the "house's $$."

Friends don't let friends drink and bet bigger than they should.

Most people, over the long haul, have no chance to win. It is not a question of intelligence, education level or "inside information", but rather the ability to gather data, analyze such and make sound judgements regarding which pool to jump into and how deep to dive.

Handicapping is not a glamorous endeavor; it requires a remarkable amount of study and dedication, often without reward. By asking the profitability question you indicate, you are going thru a period of frustration with your selections and subsequently challenge anyone else's ability.

Even if you have read epics such as "Picking Winners", "Ainslies Guide..." anything by Quirin, or several dozen other great books, you are still at the mercy of understanding the past performances. Few do, perhaps one out of a thousand.

Concentrate on a specialty, preferably one with a high return. If you are a new to the game; play vertical (trifecta, superfecta etc.) and bet the minimum. Stay focused and ignore "tips" from ANYONE, especially those that offer multiple selections in the same race, without analysis. Analyze all of your plays, both before and after the race. Grow a thick skin. BBB

The following is what brought tears of hysteria to my eyes....




From a guy who claims to bet under $35 a week.


BWAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

It's not annoying. He's condescending ( you should see his act on another board ) and takes repeated cheap shots but he actually offers some decent insights into handicapping. I don't agree with some of what he says, but that's fine as there are many ways to go about handicapping, and the only truly disingenuous thing he does is suggesting he knows his ways provide an avenue to success even though HE doesn't trust them enough to actually wager.

He's a student of the game, which is great, and if he would start really betting he could probably improve. People should bet what they can afford, and are comfortable with, and perhaps that is the reason he doesn't really bet. However, to teach yourself to even have a chance to win you have to bet enough to feel the pain of losing, so ( unless you really like losing ) you will then figure out your mistakes and move forward from there.

So the trainer of a class dropper doesn't know better than the handicapper whether or not he's trying to get rid of the horse or just get the horse a confidence-builder? That's gotta be one clueless trainer.

And the jockey aboard a lame horse just in a race to get claimed doesn't know more than the handicapper?

And the exercise riders who are aboard a horse every morning don't know better than the handicapper how well one of their horses is training?

Here's the bottom line: You can be the best handicapper on the planet.. If the trainer of a horse you like isn't in the race to win it, you're cooked. Period.

I hope he is betting more as he certainly seems to devote a real amount of time to handicapping.

I find his thoughts about the turf rails a bit interesting ( and perplexing ). Personally I have never paid attention to this, and done well in turf racing, but it's very possible his thoughts have at least some merit. I wonder if anyone else here has any thoughts on turf rail placement and its possible effects on the dynamics of races.

I don't mean to knock people for betting small amounts. I just think it is important to bet at least a reasonable amount if you are going to even attempt to pass yourself off as some kind of expert. The simple fact is you cannot really learn how one might be a successful player unless you invest somewhat seriously. It is important, especially in betting Pick-4s like he claims to bet, to learn how to spend your money in order to maximize your chances of success.

Yep, that's one more handicapping angle.

When I've been at a track or OTB and some seasoned player is saying something to the effect of "these races are fixed!", I've often suggested "then handicap the fix."

And I've meant it.