Sniper..

There's no need to apologize for starting the thread or feeling that you shouldn't express critical opinions. In terms of calling jockey's "gnomes" or horses "goats", I can't police and legislate every post, every thread, every minute, every day. As it happens, both of those comments were responded to in a manner that appropriately debunked the poster who made the silly references.

That pair of comments are examples of isolated, individual boorishness. The theme of this thread though is an example of a much larger, and vitally more important trend around the game. For my part, I'm sorry if my response was overly harsh, and I wasn't trying to single you out as a villain. It just hit a chord with me though as it set the responses in a direction that has an undertone all too prevelent in the game, and sports in general these days: the ridiculing of loser(s) as opposed to the complimenting of winner(s).

John Ward made it clear before the race that the Donn and Santa Anita Handicap were his targets for Strong Contender. Mike Trombetta made it clear that the Sunshine Millions Classic was his target for Saint. McLaughlin made it clear that the Gulfstream Park H. or Donn was the target for Jazil. While trainers and connections would love to win every race they enter, conditions and situations preclude that they are going to...

Unfortunately, we live in an era of racing where we don't get to see our horse heroes run as frequently as in generations past, and because of that, we tend to ovedrvalue, and be hyper-critical, of every single perfolrmance because we have so few performances to go on anymore.

The most telling example of this was the hyper-critique overkill of Bernardini post-BC Classic. In a perfect world, we'd get to see Bernardini at least all this year in maybe 2-3 more matchups versus Invasor, Premium Tap and this year's 4 year olds. Only then could we truly determine if Bernardini was a true great or near great or better than average. Instead, he loses by a length to a fabulous and nearly undefeated champion six months his elder, and is decried a "fraud" by many eager to tear down anything that resembles a quality runner.

Because our opportunities to evaluate horses are limited in this era of the abbreviated career, there is an incredible rush to judgement on every single animal from the second they hit they the track. We are so anxious to annoint a "next superstar" that any 2 year old that wins impressively and earns a big figure is instantly set up for criticism and ridicule with any subsequent
"failing".

Not to get into the why's and wherefores of this, but the short-sightedness of the breeding community and lack of leadership within industry management has created a terrible scenario whereby fans have little to grab on to in terms of continuity and sustained adulation of horses. Because racing is a pari-mutuel based enterprise, it elicits strong opinions in its' fan base, and I'm not looking to limit anyone's predilections.

But we have to be appreciative of what we have, and Saturday's Mr. Prospector was a race worthy of appreciation for a variety of reasons. The winner emerged as a serious racehorse and set a track record in an excellent race that saw three quality runners with a chance to win at the finish. While it makes sense to include the fact that Strong Contender was not ready for a competitive effort as part of its' evaluation, I was of the opinion that the more reasonable focus of the post script was the action at the front of the pack.

Glad Gander had PV because I know he was mentioning it for a few days.

Not nearly enough Da Hoss, the day as a whole was awful and the only ticket I cashed is a win bet on PV. I tried to beat the favorite in the last in doubles and didnt have the 7th race so there went my pick 4's. Awful day which should have been a big day. Just disgusting but I am glad Outofthebox won when so many know it alls on here made the horse out to have no chance.

He's certainly a better horse than Strong Pretender.

It is a bad sign -- a lot like Bluegrass Cat in the Travers.

Strong Contender may have ongoing issues too. Big horses like Strong Contender are often prone to injury. Look at RHT and Bellamy Road. Well Said is another large horse that showed some promise last year only to be afflicted with constant nagging injuries.

In a full field at a mile traffic can be a huge issue for a big horse -- they get stopped and it takes them too long to get motoring again -- high cruising speed but slow turn of foot.

I agree for the most part Kasept. With Bernardini however I think the level of hype was appalling enough to deserve some critique. The critique should have really been directed more at the racing press instead of the horse. Beyer is a perfect example -- he cranks superstar figures for a horse that beats weak/injured fields and then when Bernardini loses to a relatively mediocre performance by Invasor -- Beyer instantly changes his tune and says, "Bernardini is no superstar".

Like I said before -- if some of the racing press worked in the financial services industry they would be in jail for fraud. Yeah, I know, it's gambling -- but the betting public (especially the novice) bettors deserve a fair shake from the "experts". Maybe they'd stick around and become horseplayers if so many weren't led astray from the start.

Just my $2 worth.

This is all so true.

I love everything from reading about bloodlines, learning of great champions and pick 3's and 4's, but most of all I love the horses running. Being this sort of fan isn't the easiest thing on a forum or following the sport due to the failure of management to recognize that there are fans as well as people who bet, own or breed thoroughbreds. The fan is the often forgot element in this because they are not supporting the sport heavily with their betting dollar or ownership, but they are an important part of the community of racing. If the horse isn't retired prematurily, I'm told I can't think my favorite race was the Belmont Stakes. I may have been born in 1978, but it doesn't mean I don't know who Secretariat, Dr. Fager and Buckpasser were and how good they were. The difference is, horses like Jazil, Memorette, Bernardini and Saint Liam ran when I was watching...they bring me out to the track. So I guess what I'm really trying to say is; I understand your message and as usual it's a good one. Be thankful for what we have. :)

At this point he has as good of a claim on that spot as anybody. Behind Invasor, Premium Tap, and Discreet Cat it is a pretty wide open division. He ran a close third while sitting fairly close to a very fast first six furlongs. I suppose I could move Lava Man ahead of him but he will likely stick to the turf this year which moves him down on a list of older routing dirt males. Here was the list from a couple days ago for anyone who cares:

1. Invasor
2. Premium Tap
3. Discreet Cat
4. Sweetnorthernsaint
5. Lava Man
6. Sun King
7. Jazil
8. Brother Derek
9. Lawyer Ron
10. Magna Graduate


Honorable mention: Steppenwolfer, Corinthian

This horse probably isn't in the top 100.

It is quite possible that he won't be. I put him and Steppenwolfer as honorable mention since they are two of my favorite horses in training but I'm realistic enough about them to not put them in my top ten.

I agree completely, Sightseek.

Although I do bet, that's just one part of the game, and not the best part. I also love the big things about this game -- the excitement, the grandeur, the history. And I love the little things, like the smell of the dirt when I'm leaning on the rail watching the first race post parade on a perfect summer day. But most of all, I love the horses.

I can't say what it is exactly that affects me so. I see one throw a wild eye, or give a thundering snort, and I'm struck by both their fragility and power. Personally, I would never call a horse -- any horse -- a goat. Maybe it's because I'm an outsider, not around racing every day, and not yet become cynical of the people or inured to the sight of the animals. Win or lose, I think they're magnificent.

On the other hand, I don't condemn people because they sometimes express themselves in blunt terms. That's part of what makes this site interesting, and free speech is part of what makes this country great. (Having said that, I recognize that this site is not really a public forum, although Steve allows the public to participate, and that Steve has every right to control the content). Also, everybody goes for the cheap laugh sometimes, and what they say isn't necessarily what they really feel.

Oops, my bad...

Too much alcohol will do that to me. :o

:rolleyes:

If you call being 3W the whole race, making a good middle move, in a race with a fast time, where the horse isn't 100% cranked an excuse, then here it is.

These trainers always have excuses and if they don't then the fans make some up for them. If the excuse leads to more money bet on him in the Donn then it works for me. I think he is about a 100 Beyer horse which is nothing to be embarassed about and he ran right about a 100 if you use the 111 the race should have got rather than the 104 they inexplicably came up with.

I am referring to Strong Contender.....


It is well worth watching the replay of his trip. His trip was lousy and whether or not he had a shot going into the race he certainly had none given his trip.

I put little to no stock in what Donna Ward said after the race, but he gets shut off about 100 yards into the race and completely loses any decent position. To me this is the biggest trouble many horses have in races....something happens early in the race that causes them to be at a tactical disadvantage through no fault of their own. This is what happened to Sweetnorthernsaint in the Derby ( in a somewhat more extreme example ) and this is what happened to Strong Contender Saturday.

After getting shut off back to last he finally pecked his way to the two path and finally the rail as the field went into the turn. Unless the rail is golden, and there is a far bigger argument that it was NOT the place to be, this is not a good spot to commence a rally. Finally when they came into the stretch he had to extracate himself and was forced to continue to go very wide in order to get outside Rehoboth. I doubt Prado was overly concerned at this point because he obviously wasn't having an impact on the race.

It's also worth noting that nobody gained any significant ground in the race as the first three finishers were up close and among the top four basically the whole way. Thus, all in all, Strong Contender had an impossible trip and did reasonably well to run fifth. Whether or not this will move him up enough to be competitive for the Donn remains to be seen as even off his best races he would need to step up his game to beat either Premium Tap or Invasor should they show.

Look, he's a talented horse, probably not as talented as some think, and certainly not trained by someone I have a great deal of faith in. I am not inclined, at least at this point, to be overly optimistic about his chances in a month but there is no doubt to any unbiased observer that his trip on Saturday was not good and he ran fairly well all things considered.

One thing that I feel needs to be stressed is that this time of year, most GOOD horses are cranked yet because of all the opportunities they have throughout the year. Playing horses like SNS and Strong Contender this weekend were definitely risky because like either of them care about a 100k G3 race when they are pointing toward $1mil races later on. It was a perfect spot for both of them to get a little competition and fitness for when it really counts.

I think some people are expecting trainers to go to the media with a news release telling gamblers NOT TO PLAY THEIR HORSE. They do the best they can with warning the public, like Trombetta and Ward did, but they can't just say not to play their horse because if the horse goes and wins, they will get crapped on.

I agree. Someone called ATRAB tonight and griped about Kiaran saying after the race Friday that Jazil wasn't cranked up. No kidding? Geez, and here I thought he would have been pointing for that race. Figuring out trainer intention, especially with layoff horses, and even moreso with GOOD horses, is all part of playing the horses. Those that do this well have a better chance to win.

Both Ward and Trombetta said going into the race they hardly expected their horse's best efforts. One would hope not.

hey, we all know strong contender could come back and win his next. now, if he keeps running races like his last, then yes, call him overrated or a goat, etc etc. one race doesn't tell the tale. sometimes a couple doesn't. there were thousands of horses between colin and personal ensign. there will be thousands more before the next perfect horse comes along. meantime, we'll just have to settle for mere mortals.

The point is, however, that he didn't run badly at all Saturday if you carefully watch the replay....especially the head-on. A clean trip, with a little improvement, will give him a very good chance to be competitive against Saturday's group in the future.

birdstone



remember that race he ran on a sealed track? everyone said beforehand that he should win regardless..that he was the class of the field, etc.
we all know how that turned out. we also know who went on to rain on smartys parade and then win the travers.

now, not a prime example to give according to what you just put above, but a good example of things not turning out as they should one time, but then redemption later...

right

some horses run well off a layoff, some don't. tough crowd here to say after one race what type of horse he is....or jazil for that matter.
i mean, come on, did anyone really and truly think jaz would win that race?! well....i guess according to the odds, they did. a fool and his money

Watch the head on again DaHoss. He was more like 5w on the backstretch becuase the 2 was about 2-3 paths off the rail, while Chaitian got a great trip sitting about 2w the whole race. Chaitan beat him by about 1.25 lengths, and SNS finished up very strong. SNS is not a one turn horse, he is a two turn speed horse that rates REAL well. I am actually pretty surprised by the amount that Ramon gets into him. I would much rather have Kent on him in the Sunshine Millions, but I doubt that is going to happen.

I am actually worried that he ran TOO HUGE in this race and it could have knocked him out a little bit for the Sunshine Millions. His TG number is going to be monsterous. I am guessing it might be better then Chaitan's

I actually think it is easier with GOOD horses, rather then normal claiming horses.

Seriously?

i can think of a horse i'd rather see kent riding.....

you put in a quarter and the ride lasts about 30 seconds...

Yes, he is riding well so far at Gulfstream.....As I have said about Kent, he has balls the size of basketballs. That I at least respect and for every hole that he gets shut out of, he gets through a couple that produce good winners. At least he tries those holes (many wouldn't even try and would rather stay 6w and run 5th on the best horse), and for that I trust my money on him

I really don't pay enough attention to trip and ride for my own good...but even I can't miss when he screws up.

But do you pay attention when he dives to the rail and wins by a head, and if he goes to the outside, he loses by a neck?

I'll have to watch closer, but I don't think I've ever said; "wow, what a great move" when he was in the saddle. Seriously, if you see a great ride by him, let me know, I'd like to see the replay to see what you mean.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying he is the next Shoemaker or Pincay BUT he rides the turf well, which is where alot of my bigger plays go.

His ride on SNS in the Derby was questionable, but if he gets through, IMO he has a hell of a chance to run Barbaro to the wire, SNS is a horse that gets brave on the lead and if he see daylight there, instead of getting checked in the rail, he has a shot.

I really hope SNS is all he looked like he could be, I don't care if my mom is on him, I just want a great season of racing!

When I am about to make the biggest win bet of my life on him, I am hoping for the best I can get.......

:)

He was extremely effective on Relaxed Gesture this summer.

ONE RIDE, I knew this one was coming. What about his rides on Finlandia this year?