I'd put him at 50-1 to get to the gate of the Donn and actually win it, maybe more like 70-1 since he still has to get through this prep and come back in 4 weeks. Then it is three more months before there is another G1 on the east coast which means he has to stay healthy and in training and performing at a high enough level to even be entered in another G1. I think that is incredibly unlikely and that even if he does enter another G1 his chances of winning are 50-1 again.

At least Sir Greeley will almost certainly be in the Carter and Met Mile as he has been a durable horse so perhaps the 50-1 odds on him are too low if you think 35-1 is completely unrealistic.

This is silly....and you know that.

What do you think the odds of him actually running this prep, coming out of the race well and getting to the starting gate in the Donn are? Then what do you think the odds are of his beating Invasor and Premium Tap and everyone else that shows up if he does actually make it to the race? I'd say pretty fricken slim. I'm not talking what odds you'd get on the track since those are much lower than the actual odds due to takeout. Realistically he is at 2% against those horses and 67% to actually be there which multiplied together puts him right around 75-1.

I think it would be incredibly difficult for Strong Contender to beat Sir Greeley at 8f. I think it may even be difficult for SNS to beat Sir Greeley at 8f. I'm not going to make any judgement on Strong Contender til I see him run a couple races this year however. He could end up being a nice horse I think.

Whatever happened to Ministers Bid?

Whatever happened to Ministers Bid?

Hes pulling a sleigh with Dr. Pleasure.

He's in my stable mail, he has a couple of works at
Gulfstream, both i think were at 5 furlongs.

He's another horse I got slammed here for suggesting was being overrated after his allowance win at Belmont last year.

The good news? He's still eligible for a NW2X.

:D They can make it a four horse if they add in Baffert's two-some of Bob and John and Point Determined.

I thought he was over-rated as well, but he could at least be running to try to break those conditions!

I thought I remembered us agreeing on this one.

John Ward doesn't believe in running. Did you see his numbers for last year? 88 starters and 13 wins! The guy did not run ONE 2YO at Saratoga last summer! He has to have a minimum of 25. I find it mind boggling.

Of course, nothing is as crazy as him declaring Dr. Pleasure to be his best 3YO.

Is he the trainer that they said would loose his stalls somewhere if he didn't run more? Shame, because he has some pretty decent bloodlines in his barn, and a few nominated to the Derbies, but it certainly doesn't look like they will make it to the races.

strong contender this weekend. cool, at least there's one race to look forward to.

Not sure....but he should.

Those numbers are amazing concidering he has a barnfull of horses. I would estimate that he averages less than 1 start per horse. No wonder he has his own training barn at Keeneland.

I heard they have problems keeping help.

To bad, they get some very nicely bred horses, but they never seem to race. I just don't get it.

Hey Out of the Box, I see that Interior Designer is in against Rogue Agent on Friday. Please give us your take on the race. Dont worry, my paltry $50 win bet wont shake up the payoffs all that much :rolleyes:

What we really want to know is what exactly happened in Interior Designer's last race that prevented Arroyo from riding him in the stretch ( and probably winning ). Arroyo kept looking down to his left, and even said something to Santos as he went by, but the head-on was inconclusive though it seems possible he either lost or broke his left iron.

Thats very interesting. I noticed the same thing but I think I refrained from posting about it. I actually liked Interior Designer in that spot, but didnt make a wager for some reason. While watching the race, I cursed myself for not betting it, because Interior Designer looked home free.

A very large bunch of 4yr olds that will be running in stakes races that there owners and or trainers think they are so special that hey dont even consider trying to progress through the conditions. Go back and look at the colts on the derby trail last year . So many dropped of the list after some early problems , without proving there inability. As we see some that fit in this catagory are even bypassing there 4yr old year and going to the shed to make there money. Such a crazy assumption. Sometimes it looks as if all they need is "POTENTIAL" . Keeping them racing is to much of a gamble. Hard for a plaino horse player to understand. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ rules.

This is a big race for Sir Greeley. He has had some bad luck in his last couple of races, but 6f really isn't his distance anyway. Jimmy told me that his best distance without a doubt is at the mile. You can say what you want about him, but he usually shows up. He's not the best horse, but he's made some money. Jimmy has him ready to roll, Hopefully we'll have a good year with him.

Sir Greeley is often in spots where you would expect him to win but seldom gets it done. At least he isnt exactly facing monsters here. Strong Contender and SNS arent exactly the next comings of Cigar and Skip Away.

I guess there are worst stabs but demand 5/1 on him.

It would be fine with me if he was a solid GIII horse....theres no shame in winning $100k races!

I'll never forgive him for being beaten by Voodoo in last the Fall Highweight!

At 3, once you get the NW1x there are not many options but stakes vs. 3yo's or NW2x vs older. At Belmont or Saratoga or even CD those allowances against older NW2x stock can be pretty tough. It may be easier to go into stakes, run for bigger money and possibly even win his amajor contender stubs his toe. Look at Jazil's race on Friday. It's a 3upNW2x and his last race was a win in the BELMONT. He's eligible so he's there. These types pop up in abundance over the summer months.

It's a shame that I like Strong Contender so much, because I have to root for Sir Greeley. Third off a lay off, and Johnny V driving..lets bring this one home!

I see Strong Contender as being a horse that will drastically improve from his three year old year to his four year old year. He had a rough trip in the Haskell to finish a respectable third, and beat Lawyer Ron, who is a very nice Grade II animal, in the Super Derby.

I think it will prove to be a smart move by Ward in having skipped the TC and BC races this year.

As for Lawyer Ron, if they didn't retire him (don't know; I've not been keeping up with the news as I should lately), they need to turn him into a miler. He will never be able to get the classic distances.

Arroyo's stirrrup leather was slipping out of its safely buckle. So he was looking down and reaching to put it back in its place. Same time as that he dropped his reins . He came back holding the left iron with help from the outrider. Just another way to lose another race....

Forgot to mention that the 3 blind mice upstairs called right away on the phone and demanded an explanation from Arroyo...They were satisfied with his explanation. Even held his irons up in the air for them to see...

Thanks a lot...I really appreciate the explanation.

Makes perfect sense. I had the double with him to the second winner who paid 20-1.

Actually, I think Sniper's 3% estimate is a much better figure than your initial 16% estimate.

--Dunbar

I'm not surprised as I disagree with most of what you post.

It's not really an opinion...it's just math. Either you understand this or you don't.

Math is one of my strong points. I understand Sniper's reasoning quite well. Among other things that he is doing right is taking into account the very real chance that Strong Contender will not be around to contest most of the available Gr I's. The attrition rate is so high that it is foolish to leave out that factor.

What's really silly is to even suggest that it is "just math". There's a huge opinion component. The opinion has to do with (1) exactly how good Strong Contender is now, (2) what is his upside, (3) how good is the competition, (4) what's the chance Strong Contender gets injured, (5) what's the chance Invasor is retired or injured, and much more! If you think that's all "just math", then well, please tell me those numbers.

by the way, I'm sorry you disagree with most of what I post. I happen to like (and agree with) the vast majority of your posts.

--Dunbar

Dunbar
 

Sorry....that was unfair.

I'm just worn out from this argument. I happen to think it is HIGHLY likely that Strong Contendor will be in the 10-1 range in at least two Grade 1s this year. Yes, I understand the injury, or " I'm John Ward and I don't run my horses ", factor but this horse has remained sound and seems to have been pointed for a 4YO campaign.

I think mathematically making him 5-1 to win a Grade 1 this year is hardly a stretch. And by the way, not that you have said this, but I am not necessarily saying I expect him to, I just think those are the fair odds of it happening. Truthfully, if anything, I think he may be more likely.

Sir Greeley has run 19 times and the highest level he's ever won at is grade three. He's been out of the money in nine of his 19 starts.

Strong Contender has run seven times and has won twice at the grade two level. He's never been out of the money in his life.

With Sir Greeley, u know what u are going to get. Strong Contender clearly has more upside potential. That is not to say that he will REACH that potential but it's there. What is pretty safe to assume is that Sir Greeley won't win a grade one. It's doubtful that he'll even win a grade two. Strong Contender may not win a grade one either. But I'd say that the chances of it happening are significantly better than they are for Sir Greeley. Personally, I think he's twice the horse that Sir Greeley is. I can easily see a scenario this year where Invasor and Discreet Cat are on the sidelines after running in Dubai and the door is left open for some horses that otherwise might not have won some big races to do so. Sort of like what happened a couple of years ago when that sorry nag who's name escapes me won the Pimlico Special in the slop but was otherwise, a second rate horse. Eddington is his name.

Sir Greeley has run 19 times and the highest level he's ever won at is grade three. He's been out of the money in nine of his 19 starts.

Strong Contender has run seven times and has won twice at the grade two level. He's never been out of the money in his life.

With Sir Greeley, u know what u are going to get. Strong Contender clearly has more upside potential. That is not to say that he will REACH that potential but it's there. What is pretty safe to assume is that Sir Greeley won't win a grade one. It's doubtful that he'll even win a grade two. Strong Contender may not win a grade one either. But I'd say that the chances of it happening are significantly better than they are for Sir Greeley. Personally, I think he's twice the horse that Sir Greeley is. I can easily see a scenario this year where Invasor and Discreet Cat are on the sidelines after running in Dubai and the door is left open for some horses that otherwise might not have won some big races to do so. Sort of like what happened a couple of years ago when that sorry nag who's name escapes me won the Pimlico Special in the slop but was otherwise, a second rate horse. Eddington is his name.

I guess Sir Greeley's race to win is this weekend while the other 2 horses will probably use this as a prep to the Donn. That said, Sir Greeley often finds ways to lose races. From a betting perspective though, if Sir Greeley hovers around 5/1 I think he may be the best value bet in the race. He is the horse who will most relish this distance and lets face it, the other two arent going to kill themselves to win it. They may be that much better on talent alone, but is that enough to beat Sir Greeley, who isnt exactly a slouch? Tough race, a good one to watch.

Can you book him for my birthday party? It should fit nicely in between the Carter and Met Mile. We might need to offer him up for some pony rides though if Blackthroatedwind comes.

He told me he doesn't like do do birthday parties...just make money. He isn't a betting horse, but he does nothing but make money for his connections.....