I'm not sure if it is true that no horse has won the derby with such an early start. I'd like to see the data on that. I'll grant you this, many of the horses that win often and early at two are speedy precocious types that end up with distance limitations. But that doesn't mean that it's impossible to start in June and win in May.

There was a good thread on ESPN a few months back where people offered what appeared to be credible data that suggested that lots of gallops were not the answer and that actual racing early in the 2YO season was more beneficial for bone and structure development and would reduce the likehood of injury. Of course over-racing would be problematic.

Keep this in perspective also, not many horses win the derby period, so it's easy to come up with statistics that are not significant.

Horse that win in June are winning at 5F races. It is completely useless for a horse that needs to stretch out to 10F. All you get now are speed freaks that everyone goes crazy over but that have zero chance of winning the derby.

I don't follow your point here. Circular Quay was obviously ready to run to have performed as he did off just two very modest 1/2 mile works. There will be 20-30 2yo MSW sprints run at major tracks this week and it will be hard to find another colt or filly that ran or will run as well as this one did. To me that's the story. Not whether he's going to win a race that is 11 months away. I also disagree that a nice sprint win is a useless gauge for eventually running longer distances. After all, you have to start somewhere. I think he's a very nice colt who ran a super debut off modest works. I'm just glad I saw the race.

Stud i was gonna post something to that effect but your post covered everything I was going to say. I love the sport, and I really appreciate talent and exciting debuts like these even when i don't have a quarter on the race. Isn't that why we love this game? I guess I don't understand the people who love to knock everything. I mean Ruler you can have any opinion you want, but you are bashing us for liking the way this horse ran and talking about things far off when you are the guy telling us about Showing Up in the Travers?

cobalt recently@hollywood still stands out as the most impressive debut to me so far this year, mike any1 else have any idea what his number and beyer were? really difficult for me to get full blown excited about a 3yo season and derby run for a current 2yo, in this day and age unfortunately alotta the babies cant maintain the soundness from now through the 3yo TC campaign

Big difference between a proven race horse and a maiden winner. I don't think Showing Up can beat Bernardini but I just hope he does because I get to see him at Belmont. I just watched the replay and the horse was very impressive and is a Thunder Gulch, but Tabor has these great 2yr ollds all the time. I usually wait until the Hopeful before I go declaring any 2yr old a potential derby horse.

Playa Cobalt was very good, but you have to watch the CD 2nd on replay. I didn't bet the race and was just watching it but it shocked me. Horse was in back of the pack and made a move with no urging, didn't switch leads until late and when he did it was breathtaking. Last 3/16ths he got in 17 or a shade under which is just crazy. He went 5 1/2 in 1:03:3 and whats exciting about him is that he doesnt look like one of those speed bred and speed crazy horses who dont ever go on to do anything later in the year. Thunder Gulchs arent usually that fast in their 2yo races and his mom Circle Of Life was 3rd in the Ashland going two turns so he should only get better.
I don't EVER get excited about two year olds in June or July but this one's race had to be seen to be believed.

just watched it on race replays and youre absolutely right mike very impressive, started to pick up steam right about where the track kitchen is there on the CD backside(cool view to watch the races from and see em comin head on at ya down the backstretch) and just kept rollin

Prob the most impressive debut I have seen in a long time. I think I will be the in the middle on this. The horse I think can stretch out. He wasnt even running until that lat 3/16ths and he went into another gear. Then he was cruising when he was locked down by the jock. The four horses that Oracle mentioned have about 1% chance of making the Derby. It is always good to get excited and this should be a FANTASTIC year for two year olds and 2007 should be THE BEST YEAR WE EVER HAD FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. I think we should all sit back and enjoy these wonder animals. It isnt often that you get a two year old crop like we have.

What would you recommend? Gallops until may then debut at 10F?
You have to get the horses up to racing speed in order to have something to build on. And you can't just start them out racing at a mile or more, you have to build up to it.

Also, every horse isn't cut out for the derby but that doesn't mean they can't make a nice run at the 2yo races in the summer and fall.

You don't see derby contenders until later in their 2 yr old season.

Scat Daddy and Minefield are nice, but I think Asmussen's Napa Cat is also an extremely underrated colt....he can beat Minefield in the Bashford Manor...people will realize how good he is....I've seen him train and he can really run.

Usually not. I just don't think it is a given that if a horse starts in June he cannot win the derby.

Some of us like to pick out good talented two year olds, and see how they fair there three year old season. It is a game. I like picking out the best horses before they actually become the best horses. By the way, the Sanford Stakes is next month.

A horse named Afleet Alex won the Sanford a few years ago, and look how he turned out.

Exactly, and his juice has a tendency to have a short shelf-life. :)

Yeah, I was especially impressed with Half-ours.

Alex also broke his maiden in June. But don't go using historical facts and data here, people get very offended by these things.

I hate these races they run at Churchill for the baby's because the outside horses have a huge bias against them. How many of these horses running these sprints go on for bigger and better things? I've heard that the classic trainer say it takes months to get the go,go,go out of them atfer the sales to get too settle down. I'd like to train my horses on long,uphill jogs that get longer and longer on the grass. I think that's what would build stamia in them. But what do I know?

Not only that, they used to start in March. Or even earlier, in some cases. They don't train them like they used to, which I think is unfortunate.

Are you sure about that? I have listed below the number of derby winners that debuted in each month for the past fourteen years.

June 3
July 2
August 1
Sept 3
Oct 3
Nov 1
Dec 1

As it turns out June is a pretty popular month to debut a future derby winner.
Also all of the June starts were at 5 furlongs so that distance would appear to be quite useful in getting a horse to 10F. This is not a huge amount of data but it is enough to show how far off base your comment was.

Thanks for the stats. I didn't know that. Very interesting...

Have to read the entire thread but have to agree that horses winning now mean nothing. They are just too fragile now and the odds are clearly in favor of horses that debut in the late summer/fall.

A whole lot of very good three year olds have come out of the Sanford...

It sounds like they are talking about this horse that won today and the odds are against him even making the derby. Some really nice horses to come out of those 2yr old stake races at Saratoga but can't recall any ever winning the derby. Afleet Alex did win the Hopeful, but not the derby.

I think these two year olds should just race when they are ready, but should have some time between races. You have to remember though that the key is to just give them foundation and they need races to get it. I have always thought 3 races as a 2yr old and 3 races as a 3yr old prior to the derby are what they need.

I was just pointing out that debuting in June at five furlongs has led to a derby winner in 3 of the last 14 years. So it would appear that sometimes races in June do have Derby implications and these horses are not too fragile.

Earlier in the thread people implied that it was ridiculous to think about the derby in June because Derby winners never debut so early. It does happen.

I read that and disagree too, but I think these 2yr old races in June often mean nothing because speed is just so important in them. The other problem with them in there is no way of really determining what they are beating. I don't think you can tell anything from a 2yr old other than they may be good horses. These horses grow so much over the winter and some even in the 6-8 weeks before the derby that they are often completely different animals. The sport is so odd now with people paying 16 million for Forestry colts that they are making the breed into a bunch of animals that are designed to run real quick early and break down. These horses that start this soon seem to have really short 3yr old careers.

I agree but would add that often 2YO races mean nothing in other months as well. Thats the whole point. Most of the 2YO races are meaningless relative to the Derby. But somewhere along the way during the next six months there will be a debut by next years derby winner. It's fun to try to be one of the sharpies that noticed him right away and picked it out as a horse with loads of talent.

Remember there are less than eleven months remaining to get it right! LOL.

I agree with you ArlJim. Out of all the Thoroughbreds born every year, only about 20 of them even make it to the Derby. Just 20.

That is why, for me, it is not just the two year olds that go on to win the Derby that I am looking. It is also those that make impacts in big stakes races later on as well.

The odds are against every two year old making it to the Derby. So is the nature of the game.

I don't really care that Afleet Alex didn't win the Derby. He won two of the three legs, and was only a length short in the Derby. I was more so making a point to earlier threads than to yours anyway. Someone said that horses that started early couldn't go 10 furlongs, and Afleet Alex definitely proved that wrong. He was the first horse I thought of off the top of my head.

You do make some really good points in your posts.

Man, what a bunch of bickering. Whatever. I saw Circular Quay's race.. AWESOME.. Definately a 2yo to watch this summer... and maybe beyond ( How dare I say that!? :p )

Oracle your classic dude..Good post

Many of the people on this post deriding this colt's effort as well as generalizing that early 2yo sprints are simply just speedfests obviously did not see the race. Coming into the race off just two very modest reported works, this colt broke last and really just loped his way to within 2-3 lengths of the leaders at the 1/4 pole. When the straightend out and he changed leads, he ran tremendously quick for about 1/8 of a mile. Beajarano had him wrapped up the final 100-150 yards and he still finished up in very quick timeHe was obviously ready to run and run well. Whether or not he makes noise next spring is really not important, at least to me, since so many things can happen between now and then. I also think that Pletcher is probably a very good judge of what's best for his horse and I cannot imagine he'd run this colt -- or any horse for that matter -- too soon or too often. I just really enjoyed seeing an obviously talented 2yo win off so impressively easy and look forward to seeing him again against tougher competition.

Another Thunder Gulch Baby..more where that came from

Stud. upon reading Picking Winners by Andy beyer back in my young teens in the 80's I immediately embraced the concept of watching races and taking trip and bias notes. What Beyer said just clicked with me. The concept that not all the things that happen in a trip can be posted in a little running line seemed to make sense to me. Therefore the people I respect most in this game are folks like yourself who also watch races before they comment on anything. It became really clear to me once again that most people here don't watch races and comment on things that they haven't even seen, which to be is incredulous. I would no sooner comment on the performance of a pitcher in a baseball game that I didn't watch than I would on a nuclear physics equation.
The point yesterday wasn't what he will do 11 months from now, the point was that anyone who watches races and understands internal fractions had to be like you and I were, amazed. I've been watching races hardcore for 20 years and That debut was in the top three I ever saw. Personal Ensign's debut will never be topped in my mind, I knew that first start that she was agonna be the greatest filly I would ever see. I wish they had that race on archives someplace but i remember it like it was yesterday. That debut was the kind that just make you feel like you could be watching a very serious potential star.
I'm usually the guy bashing horses at age two after big debuts because they usually fall into one of twoi categories, horses who close late running down fast fractions who really don't wanna stretch out but have given the false impression that they do because they "closed" into a :26 last quarter(which isn't really a close so much as it is the horse in front of them stopped) or horses who go in 21 and change and 44 and change. I mean those kind NEVER stretch out and I mean NEVER. Simply because horses that fast never do. But this debut was didnt fall into either category. Though he was back in the field the fractions were hot enough to mean that hes got enough speed to stay close(and will be closer the longer they go) yet the way he powered home while switching leads very late show me that he WILL stretch. Watch where he switches leads, two strides after that he was just gone. The final 3'16ths went in 17:3 and since he closed he got right around 17 flat, or a shade underneath which meant his kick home was INCREDIBLE and since the final time itself was so fast it makes that last 3/16th's just astonishing. I didn't see a debut like that last year by anyone, heck I don't know when the last time was that i saw a debut like that.

What a pointless thread this has become. Pletcher has 4 great 2 year olds and Oracle ooohed and awwed about them, so what? I didnt see any of them run but I take his word that they are very good and probably will dominate the summer's 2 year old season.

What the hell does winning the 2007 KY Derby have to do with anything? Who cares? Its June 2006.

And why does Pletcher having amazing 2 year olds come as a surprise to anyone? People been living in caves for the last 5 years? He does this every summer. The guy trainds a million horses, some of which he personally has not even seen. Of course hes going to have the stock, everybody wants him to train their horses.

Tim hes never had two year old stars like these. Name the best two yeard old he ever had? Hes never won a two year old championship and hes never won the BC juvenile in either division. He always has runners yes, but its more like a lot of very good ones, not horses like these who look downright scary. I don't ooh and ahh over much Tim. I'm ususally real conservative about who I ooh and ahh over. But my eye is pretty good. Maybe you don't remember last year but I know several others here do(over on the old site we used to post on) that i was the first guy to start raving about Barbaro after his debut at Delaware because I bet him and saw the race. I'd say that was a pretty good ooh and ahh. It takes a lot to make me ooh and ahhh, and that horse is something really special.

Keep in mind that Darley has about 40 2YOs that they are close to unveiling in New York with trainers like McLaughlin, Harty, Bin Suroor and Albertrani.....You would have to guess that the average worth of each one of their babies is several hundred thousand....watch out!

Got to agree with this post. Pletcher always has good 2yr olds and one or two will make it to the derby. So what. For all we know next years derby winner could still be on a farm somewhere.

You and the Arabs. ;)

Nothing wrong with oooing and awwing Oracle, I applaud your enthusiasm. I know your eye is good. You always had an eye on Bubbles and Piggy. LOL!