Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   In 2007 I will be a better capper by: (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8041)

ddthetide 12-25-2006 10:30 AM

play my FIRST picks !!...... don't read through the program a second and third time and change them!.... cost me BIG twice this year.

oracle80 12-25-2006 11:52 AM

I will accept the fact that although NYRA tracks are my "home tracks" that I must practice what I preach and make fewer plays there due to the consistent lack of value that they offer outside of big race days and Saratoga.

Scav 12-25-2006 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
I will accept the fact that although NYRA tracks are my "home tracks" that I must practice what I preach and make fewer plays there due to the consistent lack of value that they offer outside of big race days and Saratoga.

Pick Three/Four value is non-existent in the NYRA unless you get back to back 20/1's to run. I refuse to play them there becuase of their payouts, they always seem low.

Scav 12-25-2006 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Pick Three/Four value is non-existent in the NYRA unless you get back to back 20/1's to run. I refuse to play them there becuase of their payouts, they always seem low.

PERFECT Example

Aqueduct Pick Four takeout = 25%
Santa Anita = 21%
Gulfstream = 20%
Keeneland = 17%
Churchill = 19%
Laurel = 14%

To further this, Pimilco has a takeout of 14% on BOTH their pick three and pick four wagers.

Maryland has some SERIOUS value for Pick Three/Four players

oracle80 12-25-2006 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Pick Three/Four value is non-existent in the NYRA unless you get back to back 20/1's to run. I refuse to play them there becuase of their payouts, they always seem low.

W've been over this time and time again. Last week The Wizard of public handicapping fame was a guest on the local OTB network up here via telephone and expounded on the same thing. He advocated Sunland Park and Tampa Bay as the tracks he was focusing on now due to what he perceived as value offered and backed this up with good reason why he felt that was so.
Its kinda reminiscent of the old joke about the bookie and his big customer.
A bookie realizes that football season is coming to an end soon and he has a customer who consistently loses his ass each weekend. The guy has only played football with him in the past, and the bookie hates seeing the great revenue walk out the door at season's end.
So the customer calls up to give the bookie his superbowl play and the bookie says to him "You know, football is over now but I take action on hockey." The customer says "Hockey??!! No way I am betting hockey!!! I don't know anything about picking hockey!!!"
I kind of have that same conversation with friends who only like to play NYRA and complain that its very hard to win and that they are getting beat badly. I suggest playing someplace like Fair Grounds or Finger lakes and they say " I don't know how to handicap those places!!" LOL!!!

oracle80 12-25-2006 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
PERFECT Example

Aqueduct Pick Four takeout = 25%
Santa Anita = 21%
Gulfstream = 20%
Keeneland = 17%
Churchill = 19%
Laurel = 14%

To further this, Pimilco has a takeout of 14% on BOTH their pick three and pick four wagers.

Maryland has some SERIOUS value for Pick Three/Four players

Its not just the takeout Scav, the players at NYRA tracks are as sharp as they come and the info passed out by private clockers is widespread. Not much gets by anyone there.

Scav 12-25-2006 12:06 PM

yeah, I agree, but, if you make a conscience effort to educate yourself regarding the track, you will become accustom to it. The tracks that I feel I am EXTREMELY comfortable with as far as knowledge are:

Arlington Park
Gulfstream
Tampa Bay
Santa Anita(all)
Hollywood (Grass)
Keeneland (Grass)
Calder
Cantebury (especially lawn)
Prairie Meadows
Emerald Downs


I am sure there are more

Tracks that I never have a clue at are:

Del Mar
Keeneland (Dirt)
Hawthorne (More late fall and early spring then completely)
NYRA (Dirt)
Fairgrounds (Dirt)

Scav 12-25-2006 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Its not just the takeout Scav, the players at NYRA tracks are as sharp as they come and the info passed out by private clockers is widespread. Not much gets by anyone there.

11% more money is in the pool for the player, that is advantage player. I am going to look at Saturday pools and compare....

Scav 12-25-2006 12:10 PM

Just on the 23rd here Mike at Laurel

7/1 over 8/1 over 3/5 over 5/2 pays $2500 PER $2

40k in the pool

NYRA pools make Laurel pools look like a dwarf.

Either way, I am going to be focusing a little more on Laurel/Pimilco, as far as their pick four

oracle80 12-25-2006 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
11% more money is in the pool for the player, that is advantage player. I am going to look at Saturday pools and compare....

I wasn't dismissing the takeout at all Scav. I was just saying that beyond the takeout there are other factors involved.

Scav 12-25-2006 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
I wasn't dismissing the takeout at all Scav. I was just saying that beyond the takeout there are other factors involved.

Agree, you are right, I just get the feeling (maybe it is just me) that my money has a better return at other tracks then the NYRA. Even if their product were to improve, their takeouts are the highest in the industry


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:36 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.