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I would say you need a very strong right or left leg...get really good hang time and average at least 42 yards per punt with a net average 35 yards plus I think. You'll need to punt at a big time college as well to impress pro scouts.
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apparently in this day and age, you can attempt to do both. |
Just my opinion, but I believe with if the time, knowledge, and energy required to scratch a living at the track were applied to other endeavors, you would come out far enough ahead to work, live, and take trips to Saratoga, Delmar, or wherever you wanted every summer. After several years you could own them instead of bet them if you were so inclined....even the guy who claimed in the other thread to make $35,000 of of $1,800 is working below minimum wage to get those results (however bogus they are.)
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Point #2. You will not hit a $3,000 pick 4 with your 4X3X2X2 ticket structure, ever, unless you are lucky enough to beat a 1/5 shot in one of those legs AND catch a decent price in one of the others, OR catch a 40-1 shot that nobody else had and that's not likely with your $48 ticket. Point #3. While I agree that the pick 4 is a great bet, my personal favorite as well, you don't need to quote Steve Crist verbatim for us. |
I honestly don't know anyone who makes a living at gambling. I'm sure there are some out there, but I don't know any.
WIth horses there is just so much information out there that didn't used to be out there. The glory days of betting horses seem to be gone. Up until the 90's the DRF didn't publish general trainer stats, much less the detailed ones they publish now. Trainer switches would show up and they weren't published either. You culd make a score off a switch that not everyone knew about it or remembered. Tg and rag didnt used to be mass marketed like they are now. The internet made them easy to mass market, those numbers used to be worth their weight in gold to those who had them. The DRF used to publish archaic speed figures and now they publish Beyers. Wet track, turf, and sitance lifetime pp's aer now published. You used to have an edge if you cold remember what the horse had done on those surfaces outside the races shown in the DRF. Jockey stats didn't used to be published, those little sidebar columns that tell you who is a half brother to who didn't used to be published, and even sales prices didnt used to be published. Used to be able to save the DRF's and look up workouts and see how fast they actually were. You could go back and chck a certain date and see a horse had the 2nd fastest work out of a big group, and now that info is all in there for anyone who has 5 bucks for a DRF. Theres no more information edge, everyone has all the info that wiseguys used to work hard to keep. Heck even trip notes have become diminished in value. Now everyone has race replays.com, brisbet, etc. You can go back and watch any race with a few mouse clicks and see what kinda trip a horse had. You've also got sharks chasing other sharks now most of the year except on big days when you get the "sucker money" like Derby and BC. The game has changed and its a very hard one. I made two scores(no surprise on BC day and Derby day, they would have paid less than half that on a regular pool day) and caught a percentage of a couple nice pik-6's. Thats about it, my every day playing was definitely in the red ink, and only those few scores kept me above water, and even then just barely. If you are gonna play full time today for a "living" you need a big bankroll, even more patience than ever before, and need to work constantly, and I mean constantly. You'd probably have to put in 100 hour weeks and still need to get lucky to win enough to be considered "a living". |
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Additionally...
a completely randomly selected ticket in the example you give, 48 of 4096 selections is just over ONE percent, not TEN percent. If you go with the assumption that the top two choices win 50% of all races (pretty close to accurate), your 4X3X2X2 will hit approximately 10% of the time... but for nowhere near $3,000 for $1. |
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I feel another round of senseless PMs coming. |
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uh oh....lol |
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JJP Indeed thanks for the correction, the median would be a much better measurement. The state breds in Louisiana and Arkansas are delicious, in Illinois a nightmare.
Rupert The average $1.00 pick 4 for the Fairgrounds this meet is $2458 (sample size of 30) but the median would probably be two thirds of that. Philski Can you explain "You will never hit a $3000 pick 4 on a ticket structured (4 x 3 x 2 x3) or any other structure for that matter. I of course read Christ's book but he did not coin the logic, rather his contribution was in the "A" selections "B" selections etc. which I did not go into, but certainly use. Oracle You are exactly correct, there are no easy winners and if you are a vanilla player its a hard game. Incidentally your pick six analysis a week or so ago at Aqueduct was very good. I am certain a reasonably competent handicapper ( not named Matt Carrothers) could hit ten percent of their plays with a $48 ticket, as for getting the $3,000 go back to Christ and the "A" "B" etc. BBB |
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Those of us that actually follow horse racing are likely to be more interested in Steve Crist. But, hey, to each his own. Certainly the dribble being expelled by this poster will need divine intervention. |
BTW- Does Steve Crist really cycle 26 miles (or so) a day? Does he bring his bike with him when he comes to Toga? There are great places to ride here. Me, I am not a cyclist, more a runner, but I use to dabble in it.
Must get cold this time of year to be cylcing, even on the Island. |
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Here's a question for you (or anyone else) I really don't know the answer to: In a 19% takeout pick 4 pool (Keeneland Fall) , what would you say the equivalent per race takeout to be? Does it go like this: (1+x) * (1+x) * (1+x) * (1+x) = 1.19, solve for x. ?? Thanks, #1 Fan |
You have him confused with Beyer.
Oops. Sorry, I remembered you writing soemwhat recently and thought you were talking about Steve Christ. So its Beyer. Its a bit more mild in DC but still not a great climate to bike 12 months a year. He probably has some high tech equipment in his home for those not so nice months. * Notice I dont use first names only because I know I am not an insider. No name dropping from me. |
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That reminds me... Christ was born 3 days from today. Merry Christmas! |
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With regard to the question of whether a person should use the "average" or the "median" payoff when trying to figure out whether these bets are profitable or not, I think that if a person plays really big tickets and they can use a lot of big longshots, then it would be fine to use the average payoff. But if you're playing $48 tickets, you should probably use the median payoff because you're not going to be able to spread all that deep, so it's going to be very tough to hit any of the huge payoffs. If the median payoff is $1,500, you would make a lot of money if your $48 tickets could hit 5% of the time. |
[quote=bellsbendboy]JJP Indeed thanks for the correction, the median would be a much better measurement. The state breds in Louisiana and Arkansas are delicious, in Illinois a nightmare.
Rupert The average $1.00 pick 4 for the Fairgrounds this meet is $2458 use. Oracle You are exactly correct, there are no easy winners and if you are a vanilla player its a hard game. Incidentally your pick six analysis a week or so ago at Aqueduct was very good..... lol the 800 play where he singled in a hopeless bunch,,where it was clear any of the 3 contenders could win.....lmfao.. |
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[quote=hoovesupsideyourhead]
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Let’s say you have a Pick 4, and you like a horse in each race. Each of your horses has 25% of the pool bet on it, and each of these 4 horses actually has a 25% chance to win the race. You have 2 choices. You can bet $2 on the first horse and if it wins you parlay the amount you collect into a bet on the 2nd race. And so on, with the 3rd and 4th races. OR, you can bet a $2 Pick 4. Let’s further assume that these 4 horses have been bet “correctly” in the Pick 4 pool. Because each horse has a (1/4) chance to win its race, the odds of winning the Pick 4 are (1/4)^4 = 0.39%. So the 4 horses you like have 0.39% of the Pick 4 pool. With 19% takeout, a $2 payoff would be $414. So the question is, what kind of win-bet takeout would give you a $414 payoff on a 4-race parlay? The answer is 5.1%. I got that by stepping through the 4 races. With 5.1% takeout, the $2 payoff from the first race is $7.59 (I’m ignoring breakage, for this) Take that $7.59 and bet the 2nd race, and the payoff is $28.80. The payoff on the 3rd race would be 109.29. And on the 4th race, $414. (same as a Pick 4 with 19% takeout) There’s probably a simple way to express that, but it’s not jumping out at me. It’s not the formula S2S suggested. That formula yields 4.4% for “x”. I’m pretty sure that it doesn’t matter in my calc that the odds are the same for each race. But it does matter that the odds in the Pick 4 pool are in line with the odds of each race. There are numerous caveats. It doesn’t really make sense to talk about the “effective takeout”, unless you were going to bet all 4 races anyway. That is, if you would normally pass 1 or more of the races, then you are not getting the same benefit from the Pick 4. The biggest caveat is that it’s entirely possible I’ve made an error in my math or my procedure above. I'm very open to corrections or a more general solution. --Dunbar |
Ask Tiger Woods. He likes people to think he makes his money off winning golf tournaments and endorsements, but he makes the majority of his money off gambling on horses. His average bet is between $1,500 and $3,000 and he usually hits 3-4 out of every 10 bets returning an average of about $92,000 per year.
Its noble work you do Tiger, we tip our hats to you. |
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Notice I didnt say just "Tiger". I used the man's full name.
I am not a golf insider either. I miss Arromanches. |
Philcski Merry xmas to you
I do not create value by spreading, or picking up enough prices as you term it. I look for top heavy (something to five) favorites that do not figure. The 7th today at FG is a good example. Codes Destiny was favored in her last at even money after winning her debut. I determined she had beat nothing and was very vulnerable. I played a 2x2x2x3 ticket eliminating her. The $2 parlay came back about $700 but the $2 pick 4 returned some $2600! The winners paid $5 , $17 , $7 , and $8. www.nola.com/forums/startinggate/ post #7479 The largest pick 4 for me last year was at Keeneland. I singled Coin Silver and he paid $25 or so leading to big payoff. Incidentally in the Fg 7th today Finally Alone qualifies as a vulnerable favorite and Codes Destiny would be no surprise. Pretty Peso the winner of the anchor leg of the above pick 4 also figures as does the bug on Camille's Choice. BBB |
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Of course, the whole thing would be more believable if there was some sort of monitoring going on there, or at a minimum, a running tally of how his picks are doing. Contrast that BBB post with what Hjib does on the Selections forum here. A redboarding criticism would be more appropriate, since he has not linked to every losing pick post at the other site. --Dunbar |
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