Good luck.

I like the 9 and 10 to possibly blow up the tote board in race 6. The horses look solid but getting overlooked due to connections.

^Good stuff Mo, keep it rolling...I am not trying to beat Governor Sam after much deliberation. Jet Sweep Joe's last was real nice though, maybe he can repeat it...I wanted to make a case for Insubordination who if getting enough pace might come with that grindy move and maybe found it's spot turf sprinting finally...but ultimately decided I'm singling Governor Sam and moving on.

Best Bet: Race 8 #5 Floge 6/1 - I want to take a shot against Intermittent Fasting in here and while Gone and Forgotten makes the most sense and will be a prominant use for me in the late pick 4, I wanted to get a little more creative and landed on Floge. She has some back races that fit in here and I get that Jesus Romero taking over for Brad Cox and then runs her way over her head/doesn't fire will keep most off, I like the turnback to a sprint today, getting back into a class that she fits in.

Best Value: Race 10 #9 Soho Nights 12/1 - It's possible she just can't really run at all, I wish there was some signal that she was picking it up in the mornings but she has been working steadily since getting time off after the debut debacle...seems clear something went wrong with the break right after and she took some money in there...this seems like a more realistic level, I like that she gets a weight break with Elliott aboard and in a field this hungry she doesn't have to be all that much to have a big shot.

Good move singling Governor Sam as I tossed him and missed out on a pretty easy Pick 4 that paid OK (better than the early Pick 5).

Nice call on Soho Nights too. Didn’t win but paid pretty nicely to place.

Classicist didn’t quite destroy the field but he did win by about 2 lengths and paid $6.00 to win and $3.00 to place.

Totals are now:

$56.00 wagered
$109.10 returned

I don’t know if I’ll have time the next few days to really dig into the Wednesday card. I do see two horses already that I like so I’ll post them for now, but subject to change.

Race 2. #4 Innate, 15/1. Coming off a long layoff, expect this one to be a big price but there doesn’t seem to be anyone special in here. This one went off at 6/1 in stakes company as a 2YO, then disappeared. The work tab is light but this horse was viewed as talented at one point and lands in a spot where winning is within reach. Beer Run is the logical favorite here but he’s winless in 8 starts, including 6 races where he was 3/1 or under.

Race 9. #7 Marvelous Madison, 8/1. I thought last out was a pretty nice effort as she was close to the pace set by the talented Gata Brazil, which fell apart. Disco Star finished ahead of her but I like this one’s effort a little better. Marvelous Madison also just looks like a turf router to me, so I’ll take a swing on her at what should be a big price.

Gata Brazil was bad, Ocala Dream ran a pretty flat third.
El Rezeen was no match for Far Bridge and paid $2.90 to place. Holiday Pay is still running.
Floge didn't offer much run Sunday...got $19.60 to place for Soho Nights who was no match for the winner but ran OK in her return.

Wagered: $56.00
Returned: $114.60

7/16/25:

Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Charlotte's Heat 9/2 - Debated between her and Trail of Gold here I just think she's likely going to be a better price and I liked the debut, Casse is firing and I think this is the one horse who might just be more talented that the rest...bit of a weird path here but that could be muddying up the form and Castellano being aboard should ensure at least an OK price.

Best Value: Race 5 #2 Illmatic 7/2 - Not sure what kind of price to expect here but this seems like a field that it's hard to project and he looks most talented/best suited for this race today...the slow turf work will maybe get us better than expect value but he is bred for this and has the right connections to be a winner in here to me...couldn't really come up with any big prices today so I'll take a shot here and hope he proves best.

Good luck everyone.

And to think it sounded like you almost didn't think you could post this year...what a great call and tremendous work on the whole so far. Hope you scored out good on that one.

Hoping we can get a 5-7 exacta in the last, I'll have at least a few bucks on it.

Glad I decided to do it this year. Definitely cashed though only win and exacta bets as I didn’t play any of the horizontal bets early on.

I may need to play a 5-7 exacta. Had all my horizontals to the 7 but just got knocked out by Gilmore.

I thought Illmatic (great name, by far the greatest hip hop album of all time IMO, guessing not too many on this board care :D) ran really well setting a suicidal pace while never getting comfortable and finding a little bit in the lane before being swallowed up...I'd say look for second out because I think that horse has some real ability and seemed like it might need one or possibly a little more ground...certainly needs less pace...but probably will be fairly obvious second time out so will be interesting to see where Miguel goes from here...

Charlotte's Heart took some money and I had way too much confidence in my cap on that race because all my horses and her finished near the back of the pack...can't say I loved the ride Javier gave her but she ultimately had nothing anyway. Back to the drawing board tomorrow...

Wagered: $64.00
Returned: $114.60

Marvelous Madison wasn’t the controlling speed and just didn’t put in a strong effort. Innate wired the field, paying $42 to win and $11.40 to place.

Wagered: $64.00
Returned: $162.50

I really don’t like Thursdays card too much. Nothing clever.

Race 6. #10 Ty Ty Rose, 10/1. Trainer hits at 30% first time on turf starts. He’s got two in this race and Santana seems to be his preferred rider. Santana has been riding well lately. I don’t love the outside post but I’ll take 10/1 here, especially as I don’t have strong thoughts on the rest of the card.

Race 9. #7 Enlighten, 8/5. Just seems the best horse in this race. Doubtful we get 8/5.

I’m starting to come around on this card with a play for the late Pick 5…hoping the turf races stay on the grass.

7/17/25
Best Bet: Race 2 # 9 Annexperience 7/2 - Like the stretchout today.

Best Value: Race 10 #14 Out of the Fog 15/1 - Expecting improvement second time out, will certainly need it, but thought was completely against the flow of the race first out.

I do like Enlighten still but a few things I don’t like for a short price. Switching that pick to:

Race 2. #2 Before the Wind, 6/1. Horrible ride last out imo. Irad should move this one up and have a nice inside trip.

Total whiff today.

The kicker was I put together a $60 late pick 5 ticket this morning (that would have won) but switched a few horses around and dropped Barnstorming out and ended up missing.

That’s ok. My two year old pick didn’t pan out at all (note I like the way Santana has been riding, part of why I almost included Barnstorming). Before the Wind ran 4th but there wasn’t much distance between 2nd and 4th. An experience was just too good here.

Wagered: $72.00
Returned: $162.50

Friday.

Race 5. #4 Bodegas, 15/1. Took some money on debut, albeit in an easier spot than this. Still, I suspect this one might have some talent and no one else in here looks like anything special. Gets Rosario aboard.

Race 7. #7 Big Everest, 7/2. There is no one in this race that is proven as fast early as this one on the grass. The pace projector says the pace will be hot but I think Big Everest may be able to control it up front and it’ll be too late for the other logicals to track him down. Off the layoff, he faced off against the very talented Donegal Momentum who was able to press the pace. Last out, 8.5 might have been too long for him, and he was game up to roughly a mile before conceding in the final half furlong. Even there, Cugino is a respectable stakes winner and GS placed horse. I don’t see who will provide legitimate pace pressure to him today.

7/18/25
Best Bet: Race 7 #6 Nantasket Beach 3/1 - Was/will be hoping for a little better price, Aragona is great at this so I suppose he'll be right but anyway...I was interested in this horse in the Kelso so I kind of feel obligated in this spot. Since the claim I just think this horse has gotten really good. Mountain Bear kind of confirmed that last race was legitimate and who knows what we get from I'm Very Busy. If he's ready for his best off the bench then they're all running for second but I'll guess he's not and take a horse I view as a very likely winner if so.

Best Value: Race 8 #4 Pride's Crossing 15/1 - Get the sense that she's a bit of a wiseguy horse in here so I'm not sure we'll get 15/1, but she should be a good price. The debut clearly hinted at big ability...since switching to Chad I'm guessing the Tampa turf try was the best spot to get her 9F at the time...the Keeneland race was stolen by Prat on the front end and she was really just finding her best stride when it was far too late. Back out to 1 1/8th last and she was kind of disappointing to not win but I don't know if she really loved that track. She galloped out like she wasn't tired at all to me...the ambitious spotting in a race Chad definitely doesn't have to be running her seems like a big tip off of what he thinks of her to me.

Big Everest proved all the naysayers wrong, wiring the field at a chilly 6/1 and paying $15.40 to win and $7.20 to place. Bodegas stunk.

Wagered: $80.00
Returned: $185.10

Saturday. I haven’t looked closely yet. I’ll probably change these but we’ll see.

Race 9. #4 Kairyu 6/1.
Race 11. #4 Mullikin, 7/2.

This game is impossible. I had singled Big Everest in the Pick 5 and had Leslie’s Rose, only to have the three top odds horses in race 9 not even on the screen for the 4th leg of the Pick 5. :wf

I’m going to swap this up a bit. I’ll stick with #4 Mullikin in race 6, just think he’s the best sprinter in there and he might get a wide trip so I’ll back him up with Book Em Danno in multis but don’t see the point in going wider there.

For race 9, I’m going to take an even bigger swing and roll with #2 Zeitlos, 8/1. Zeitlos finished 5th in this race last year. Despite running most of her races on dirt, she’s shown she can handle the turf. She’ll get an inside trip stalking the front runners and will need to get some running room in the stretch, but she’s capable of running them down at a big price. I liked Kairyu in 2nd off the layoff but she switches to Carmouche and while I love Carmouche for sprints, it’s a downgrade from Prat.

Bonus pick for the Haskell (won’t count toward totals): Obviously Journalism will be tough to beat but I think #4 Burnham Square has a shot at 5/1 or maybe even higher. Nearly every horse in this race has some early speed. If Rispoli stays too close to the pace, moves too soon into the fast pace, and/or goes wide to avoid getting boxed in like the Preakness, he’ll open himself up to getting run down by Burnham Square. Bottom line, I don’t trust Rispoli to give Journalism a great ride. And while Journalism is the most accomplished horse in this race and has been the best so far, there’s no way to know if that gap has shrunk until they run the race today. Aside from Burnham Square, Gosger and Goal Oriented are two horses who could have improved greatly since we’ve last seen them. It should be an interesting race.

Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Twirling Queen 12/1
Best Value: Race 12 #1 Commuted 12/1

Both my picks ran 2nd. $10.80 total added.

$88.00 wagered
$195.90 returned

Sunday.

Race 5. #3 Ba Dee Ya, 10/1
Race 7. #3 Zverev, 10/1

Not going to change my picks but going through the card, I’m not against Scylla in the Honorable Miss but anyone else think this horse Little Prankster could hit the board at 15/1?

I don’t know the story as to why she missed so much time but last out was not a bad race and she’s got a race from her 3YO year that puts her in contention if she can run back to it.

Looked at Little Prankster long and hard but ultimately decided against liking her...maybe will throw her in underneath though because she's not without merit.

Best Bet: Race 9 #9 Jody's Pride 4/1 - I do respect Scylla in here and maybe shell just love the 6F - she has always had that cutback look...but I don't know I still think she might just need better rides at those elongated sprint distances to see her best. But I have a hard time seeing this pace not being very contentious in here today and I have a feeling Jody's Pride is going to come rolling late. She's really good in my opinion and has basically always run well, the few races she wasn't super competitive were really high class fields/winners and a lot of times at distances I think were too long. Maybe shell need 7 or 8 furlongs after all but I have a funny feeling she might just as well like this distance if there's any legitimate pace to run at.

Best Value: Race 4 #1 Kigali 8/1- Really struggled coming up with anything else on this card...I think Kigali has some upside and can possibly beat Eliminate.

Wrong Bauer. Damn.

Zverev ran 2nd and paid $4.90. Finally over the $200 mark.


$96.00 wagered
$200.80 returned

I’ll be busy this week so going to post my thoughts for Wednesday and Thursday now.

Wednesday.

Race 6. #7 Remi’s Moon, 5/1.
Race 8. #3 Princess Madison, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 9, #4 The Commish, 6/1)

Thursday.

Race 6. #3 Collect the Data, 6/1.
Race 9. #6 Crudo, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 10, #Kid Kreesa, 8/1)

Correction for today. Remis Moon is race 4.

7/23
Best Bet: Race 7 #3 Beira 7/2 - steadily improving into that last effort which I actually think was legitimate. Might look to have come from nowhere but I think could repeat and if so they could be in trouble.
Best Value: Race 9 #8 Guilty 20/1 - Total stab here but it was either this or Catch a Wave on a card I don't love so ill take a swing...I do think King Puck is a very likely winner and also respect Light Fantastic...that said I don't know that either are overwhelmingly scary...Guilty will be a huge price and us clearly bred to love the turf. Working at Finger Lakes so who really knows, and especially without any works that really jump off the page...I don't know that Barrow has ever won a turf race but that should just add to the price as I doubt he's had many bred like this and hasn't tried a ton...what I do know from my time living out near Finger Lakes and paying some mild attention to the track at times is that Barrow can send them out ready to fire first out, particularly young horses in sprints. Again, a total stab but should be a huge number at least.

Good luck. I’ve got both of those horses in my very small Pick 5 (keying Talkin in Cursive and Crystal Quest in the first two legs so I’ll probably be out early.) but if not, I’d love to see these horses in the winner’s circle!

Santana has been great in turf sprints so far this meet. I don’t have the numbers in hand to back that up but it feels that way.

Blanked for today. Princess Madison almost got up for place. Remis Moon looked ready to make a move and flattened out.


$104.00 wagered
$200.80 returned

Prat in turf routes.

Prat is usually so good at timing turf races but it seems like recently he’s been off, leaving his horse with way too much to do once it hits the stretch. Anyone else noticing this? He’ll be on what I assume will be a heavy favorite in Tax Implications but I think he’s vulnerable there (and again, I’ll probably put him in the winners circle with this post.)

Prat has 1 more win than Rosario with 18 more mounts and 2 more than Carmouche with 14 more mounts...I've been displeased with a couple of his rides on horses I needed...I do think its probably for the most part an anomaly and he will heat up but he definitely seems off a bit

He’ll heat up but it’s been frustrating. He’s 2/16 on the turf.

I’m going to change my picks for today. Stick with Crudo in the Curlin, who I think is going to wire the field. For my other pick, I’m going to go a little smaller and go with #7 Proctor Street in Race 8 at a short 2/1. A few things here. Proctor Street draws Irad who presumably gave up his ride on Mo Fox Givin. In her first off the layoff, Proctor Street ran great and will beat this field with a slight improvement. With the upgrade from Curtis to Irad, there’s not reason to think she doesn’t move forward here. #5 Tax Implications will be the favorite here but note Prat has been a little off and there are a few things I don’t like about her. Other than her Eatontown last June, none of her figures stand out. I guess you could say the Matriarch but I’m generally skeptical of big figures in turf races where the horse was simply picking up pieces late in the race without really vying for the win.

7/24
How quickly Saratoga can cool you off...
Best Bet: Race 10 #6 Doomed 5/1 - Really like this one today..improved vastly for Cox last out and I absolutely love the stretch to 9f today. Doesn't have the quickest turn of foot but has that slow into gear powerful kick, was really striding out the final furlong last out. I really think he will win in here today and just hope the ML price holds or comes close to...you would think it will..but it is Prat and Cox. Ill be trying to get live with no backups in all my late horizontals.

Best Value: Race 5 #7 Russi 6/1 - I don't recall the last time Bond won a race but it feels like forever...ill try to wake up the barn with a horse I've always had a thing for today. Russi loves Saratoga and the 5.5...maybe will need one off the bench but the price should be Ok even with Yarrow out. Set and Vacation Dance can win but I'm not exactly terrified of either.

Oof. Can I switch back? Collect the Data wires them at 8/1!

Proctor Street was much the best. Now, can we get Crudo home so I can capitalize on this double? I’ll also settle for Hypnus who I think has been sneaky good recently.

The two worst performances of the race. $8.60 back from Proctor Street.

$112.00 wagered
$209.40 returned

Haven’t looked at tomorrow yet.

I’ve looked briefly and don’t like the card at all. I don’t think I’m going to bet any of these races. If I do, here are two horses I like:

Race 5. #2 Hidden Agenda, 12/1. Flashed a little bit of speed in a MSW race on the turf back in May on a good turf. They’ve tried to run back on turf but have gotten washed off. Elliott aboard. He needs to get out of the gate clean and this one has a shot. Really don’t love any of the likely favorites in this race so why not take a swing?

Race 9 (Amsterdam Stakes). #5 Gate to Wire, 5/1. I’ve liked this horse for a while and note the effort in the Swale makes him a player here if he can repeat. His three races after that were the FOY around two turns, then the Pat Day Mile in the slop and the Woody Stephens on a muddy track. Let’s get him back around one turn on a fast track and see what happens.

7/25

Best Bet: Race 10 #4 Professor Grace 5/1 - Hoping with these chilly connections to get all the ML. Should like the stretch and hope javy gets a little more forward today. View as the most likely winner in this field.

Best Value: Ace 4 #4 True Connection 9/2 - while hopefully many dismiss the last as a bad field/sloppy track out of nowhere performance I'm guessing Brad Cox just has this horse the best hes been in a while. Hes pretty well bred and showed some ability early in his career.I suppose you could argue if he was really moving forward why this spot but its probably just being realistic and wanting to win at Saratoga.

Swing and a miss. Disappointed neither of these hit but more disappointed that I showed no discipline and spent way too much money on this card

$120.00 wagered
$209.10 returned

Saturday.

Race 9. Lake George. #3 Daisy Flyer, 12/1. Obviously, Classic Q is the one to beat here but a few things going against her. The course may not be as speed friendly, she has to go further, and while there isn’t much pace signed on, I think you’ll see a little more pace pressure in a bigger field. Daisy Flyer has already beaten Classic Q, and that was on the speed friendly Gulfstream turf course (though CQ was not up front that day). I loved how she got into stride in the lane and think if she gets any pace at all to run at, she could be flying late and beat them all here. She needs to get faster from last out but she’s been away for a few months and it would be no surprise if she’s developed since we last saw her.

Race 10. Jim Dandy. #1 Baeza, 3/1. If I can get 3/1 on him, I’ll be happy. Sovereignty is obviously the best horse in this race but you’ve got to think Bill Mott is looking toward the Travers and won’t lose sleep with a 2nd place finish here. Baeza gets Berrios back and should get the perfect trip just behind Mo Plex.

Some thoughts on the Late Pick 5 today. Not going to do this frequently but I like the sequence, the key being to single Baeza and go wide in Race 11. It was tempting to try to go wider Race 8 but I really like this Finger Lakes invader and didn’t want to dilute that opinion too much. If playing a bigger ticket, I’d probably go wider Race 9 as many of the horses in that race are capable but also wouldn’t blame anyone who wants to simply single Classic Q based on the projected pace scenario.

Race 8.
#4 Blamicker 8/1 (Englehart/Worrie) (A)
#2 Stewie 5/1 (Begg/I Ortiz) (A)
#9 Kenny Be 7/2 (Duggan/J Ortiz) (B)
#3 Vekinda 4/1 (Weaver/Franco) (-)

Race 9.
#3 Daisy Flyer, 12/1 (Arnold/Lezcano) (A)
#4 Lavender Disaster, 5/2 (Brown/I Ortiz) (A)
#5 Classic Q, 2/1 (Casse/J Ortiz) (C)
#2 Pretty Lavish, 12/1 (Motion/Castellano) (C)

Race 10.
#1 Baeza, 3/1 (Shirreffs/Berrios) (A)
#5 Sovereignty, 2/5 (Mott/Alvarado) (C)
#3 Mo Plex, 10/1 (Englehart/Franco) (-)
#2 Sandman, 6/1 (Casse/J Ortiz) (-)

Race 11.
#6 Nonna Lynne, 6/1 (Brown/Franco) (A)
#9 Hello Beauty, 5/2 (Sisterson/Dettori) (A)
#1/1A De Paz Entry, 6/1 (B)
#3 Off Script, 9/2 (Walden/I Ortiz) (B)

Race 12.
#6 Majestic Michael, 8/1 (Green/Carmouche) (A)
#7 Fateful Lightning, 2/1 (Cox/Franco) (A)
#11 Got Stripes, 12/1 (Devaux/J Ortiz) (C)
#9 Battle Drum, 6/1 (Pletcher/I Ortiz) (C)

Pick 5 play (Simple A+B)
2,4,9 / 3,4 / 1 / 1,2,3,4,6,9 / 6,7 ($36.00)