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2-1 on Jeremy's Jet? |
After Day 6.
Wagered: $48.00 Returned: $41.30 Record: 10 2-2-2 Posting my Friday picks now. Best bet: Race 4 - #3 Miss Bonnie T 6/1 ML, Antonacci/Prat. I'm not sure how much pace is signed on here and this horse, at times, has shown some early pace ability and blinkers are added. From Cardenas to Prat, this is a huge upgrade at jockey, especially on turf. Her best performances put her in contention here and showing some confidence here in Prat to be able to work out the perfect trip for her. I think Beachfront Bid and I'm Glad will be heavily bet so looking to get a nice price on this one. Best value: Race 2 - #2 Clubbing 6/1 ML, McGaughey/McCarthy. This 4 year old gelding is a full sibling to Passing Out, a 3-time winner on turf at a mile and 3rd place finisher in the Beaugay in 2020. He is a Stuart Janney / Phipps homebred who looked alright in the mud last time out but who I suspect much prefers the grass. Sired by Orb, Clubbing is a big, strapping horse with a nice long stride so I suspect he will do well in turf routes. The other thing of note for me - the Chad Brown duo seems quite a bit overrated at even money. I'm not sure how good the unraced Indemnify is but Growth Capital has come up short three times now. Fort Ticonderoga, who beat Growth Capital last time out, came back to finish 8th in an allowance race last week. I'm just not sure how good Growth Capital is and want no parts of him at even money. Edit -- Removed Tyrannosaurus Rex in race 6 as best value and switched to Clubbing in race 2. |
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I have a feeling I’m going to change that Harkie pick, too. Watched some of those races and I’m not sure that horse is interested in running much and not sure how much class relief it’s actually getting. |
If Alexis Zorba stays at 2/1 in race 1, I am betting a lot of money on him. I don’t think he can lose. Should probably be below even money, imo.
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Brown/Franco continue hot streak. |
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Did you put some crack in your joint this morning? |
Best Bet - Race 8: 5 Palace Gossip 4/1 - I toyed around with making a case for Itsakeyper but it's just tough to take a horse in such bad form off a race at Toga last year with an all time trip, still the price is appealing and I think might just appreciate this trip, would use in exotics underneath. The more I looked though I just think of the logicals Palace Gossip is best in here. I get the case for Sassy Melissa and maybe she'll prove best. I don't really like the 1 or the 3 in here at all though and if DA is right on the ML and we get 4/1 I think that is a fair price today.
Best Value - Race 9: Sister Lou Ann 12/1 - I typically never take Saffie horses outside of Florida but I was looking for something a little off the beaten path in here. The case for Dolce Zel is fine but I just don't know that I'm that convinced she's all that imposing. Koala Princess can beat me off the layoff. Eminent Victor is probably full of upside but I don't want at the expected price. I couldn't quite get there on the others and again it's a bit of defaulting to a horse that's just done nothing wrong so far and will be a square price. Obviously has to improve but received that six month break and then ran well in June. Taking a bit of a stab in here. |
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If he wants dirt and will improve on it, don't you think he would have ran on it? You're so stupid it's painful. |
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After day 7: Wagered: $56.00 Returned:$44.30 Record 14 2-3-2 Going to hopefully post Saturday and Sunday picks this afternoon. |
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Saturday picks
Best bet: Race 10 - #5 Tobys Heart 8/1 ML, Lynch/Santana. I am a sucker for this horse but I really do think she has a lot of talent and the pace here should be very fast, allowing her to make a run at them late. Gaffalione is on the favorite and I've got no knock against her other than the likely pace scenario (which maybe doesn't matter in turf sprints quite as much) but he has been ice cold at Saratoga so far...so I'll take a shot with a horse that I've liked for a long time. Best value: Race 11 - #5 Seaver 20/1 ML, Hills/Cardenas. A few things to note here. I don't dislike horses like Catch That Party or even Front Man, both coming out of the same race but I don't see much pace in this race. While I don't necessarily trust Luis Cardenas to give this horse the perfect ride and I don't love betting 3YOs against older in turf routes, I feel this horse is worth a shot as neither Summer Front or Queen Frostine scream "sprinter" to me and this horse may actually like the added ground. The talent on turf seems to be there as he's looked pretty good in his last two turf starts. It's a big question mark and a challenge for him, but I think he may be up to it. |
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Sunday picks
Best bet: Race 8 - #7 Swiftsure 2/1 ML Brisset/Santana. Best value: Race 4 - #7 Battle Station 6/1 ML Atras/Carmouche. |
The picks yesterday were not good. Continues to be feast or famine.
Saturday, 7/23 Wagered: $56.00 Returned: $84.30 Didn't find any real intriguing longshots at the Spa today... Best Bet - Race 7: 9 Royal Dancer 4/1 Speedball shortens up today which I usually don't necessarily like on turf as much as dirt but the last couple efforts make her very tough in here to me. In particular last out where she ran the rest of the speeds into the ground (check their beyer patterns) and really fought on gamely at a tough distance against Dream Central and Robyn and Eli. I know the latter disappointed since but DC came back running and the R&E race is too bad to be true so thinking she's just totally lost form or something went wrong. I think she's just better than those who have had turf tries in here so if Tough Street doesn't really take to the grass I think she'll prevail. Best Value - Race 10: 3 Star Devine 9/2 Seems a notch below the best in here perhaps but lightly raced with upside and love the tactical speed which should ensure a good trip sitting just behind what should be a solid pace (I know). Needs to find a little more in the lane but think she can, especially on the cutback to 5.5 where I thought her return off a long layoff at Keeneland in April was excellent. Hoping third off the bench she's ready for a move forward today. Good luck |
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After Day 8. Total wagered: $64.00 Total returned: $57.50 Record 16 2-4-2 |
Best bet - Race 10 - 9 Funding Gap 5/1
Best value - Race 9 - 6 Caironi 12/1 |
After Day 9.
Total wagered: $72.00 Total returned: $71.40 Record 18 3-5-2 Almost into the black. Swiftsure won fairly easily but went off at even money. Battle Station got up for 2nd but was never close to winning. |
Wednesday July 27.
I really didn’t like this card very much. Best bet: Race 4 - #4 Kimari 4/1 ML, Ward/Rosario. Best value: Race 10 - #11 Aquila Moon 5/1 ML, Stewart/Alvarado. |
Best Bet - Race 6: 1 Gambling Girl 7/2 - Won’t be surprised if we get more or less than the morning line in here. I thought the debut was an educational trip this one will move forward off of. Got some dirt, was ridden hard for a long while and seemed to find stride late. Should appreciate another furlong today.
Best Value - Race 10: 7 Glitter Up 10/1: With plenty of flashier pedigrees and connections I just think she’s going to offer some value in here. Might seem (or be) like not the winning type given 3 seconds in 4 starts but she has speed, worked lights out since the last and while overlooked should be dangerous today at a nice price. Good luck - ps nice picking of late Moses, hopefully that doesn’t jinx you today. |
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After Day 10. Total wagered: $80.00 Total returned: $85.00 Record 20 4-5-2 |
Thursday, July 28.
Best bet: Race 3 - #2 Auburn Hills 8/1 ML, Persaud/Alvarado. In a race that doesn't seem to have much early speed, I think it makes a lot of sense to take a shot on Auburn Hills given his running style and the cutback in distance. I assume Boldish would have been heavily favored, dropping in for a tag, but the works haven't been great, there was no work last week, and we haven't seen him race since January at Parx. With Boldish scratched, I'm not sure the price we'll get on Auburn Hills but I think he's a winner here. Best value: Race 9 (on the turf) - #9 Ajourneytofreedom 8/1 ML, Maker/Saez. We'll see if this race stays on the turf as thunderstorms are possible this afternoon at Saratoga. If this one washes off, I'm going to have to post an alternate here. I think Ajourneytofreedom is worth a 2nd chance after coming up empty at Churchill on 5/21. Maker always seems to do well in these long turf routes and Ajourneytofreedom is getting some class relief from his previous races. He has a strong set of workouts heading into this race and, although I haven't been crazy about Saez at Saratoga, I think the odds will make this one worth it. Alternate best value: Race 4 - #2 Sinful Dancer 5/1 ML, Weaver/Cancel. (Has shown some early speed previously, adds blinkers, fast workout 5 days ago, and races last year and earlier this year against Americanrevolution and Disco Pharoah make me think he can get it done against this group.) |
Thursday, 7/28
Best Bet - Race 4: 8 Devil Boy 4/1 Thinking today is the day for him. Like that he gets a little added ground given that he always breaks poorly. Should sit a pretty good trip today and definitely has the ability to turn the tables on Ocean's Reserve in my opinion. Not a ton else to fear in here in my opinion. Best Value - Race 7: 2 Immortalization 8/1 I'm hoping he goes off at a bit of a price for some low profile connections. Michelle Hemingway is dangerous though and two of the last three efforts give this horse a big shot in here to me. Not sure what happened two back, but the fact that they wheeled back two weeks later and won in a common gallop, clear in a turf sprint tells me there was an excuse. Big ask today but should be a worthy price to find out. Good luck. |
Well, Auburn Hills went off at 2/1 and faded in the stretch to finish 3rd. The 9th race was off the turf. In the 4th, my alternate Sinful Dancer just wasn't good enough and ran 4th.
After Day 11. Total wagered: $88.00 Total returned: $85.00 Record 22 4-5-3 Friday, July 29. Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Fauci 9/2 ML, Antonacci/Santana. Maybe I'm not giving this one enough thought but I just think Fauci is the most talented turf horse in this race. He'll need to stay out of trouble but I'll certainly take 9/2 on him if that's what price he goes off at. Best Value: Race 7 - #2 Gilded Age 10/1 ML, Mott/Alvarado. I could be wrong but I think this is a horse with some talent. That's maybe why Mott sent him to the Withers after his maiden win and sent him to Dubai after the Withers. He looked pretty good against much weaker in his first race back in the States and now looks to take another step forward. He'll need to in order to have a chance here. But now in his 2nd race after Dubai, I think he will. Creative Minister is a very nice horse but you've got to wonder if he's had anything taken out of him from the Preakness and Belmont. And notably, his two wins he got pretty nice trips. So although I've liked him, I'm not betting him here. I actually think the "horse to beat" may be the Brown/Irad combo on Artorious who will try two turns for the first time. But at a short price, I'm not all that interested in him. For me, it's Gilded Age, who will need some pace to have a chance and I'm hoping that the combination of A.P.'s Secret, Wolfe County, Make it Big, and Be Better will provide some pace for him to run into. We'll see about that. Another reason I like him is that I like to see a horse make a big move on the turn and still run OK in the stretch and he did that in the Withers. Last time out, he seemed to have timed his move a little later and was really motoring home in the stretch. Alvarado stays aboard so hopefully he works out a good trip for him once again. |
Have to update my totals this weekend. Onto Friday, 7/29
Best Bet - Race 10: 6 Stella Mars 6/1 Just going back through this field time and again kept coming back to Stella Mars. I know that horses with a huge close sprinting stretching out tend to be overbet but if the morning line is accurate here I think there may actually be some value. Her effort at a mile was pretty good and I thought the move was mistimed by Samuels. Huge upgrade to Rosario who rode her last time for a career effort and sees fit to stay on the stretchout and jump in class. I just kept coming back to her as simply the best runner in the field. Best Value - Race 8: 9 Kobe Tough 30/1 Probably should put the pipe down I guess but going to take a wild swing on a horse who has no chance at all on paper. That said, I'm just not a big believer in any of the favorites in here, they're all fine and can win but I wanted to try to find a price and I couldn't really talk myself into any of the more logicals in that category. I'm taking a chance here that Kobe Tough is a rapidly improving horse who takes another big leap forward today. The horse showed a little bit of ability as a 2yo sprinting on the turf...they then moved to dirt for a while and I'm kind of crossing those races off although he was showing some slight steady progress. After the freshening they got back to what I think is his game and three back he got into some trouble after the start and in the stretch but ultimately probably needed the race. The trip Jose Ortiz gave him two back in a huge field going 5F at Pimlico was awful and yet he was finishing with some interest. Last out he showed some real versatility as previously he was used as a stone cold closer, going back to running on the lead as he did in those 2yo turf sprints...opened up 5 and while he was getting caught late was never in danger. That 79 Beyer leaves him wanting a lot more improvement to get even close to some of these today but I think his tactical speed and ability to pass horses will suit well in here and at the expected price I will take a stab. Good luck |
After Day 11.
Total wagered: $96.00 Total returned: $93.30 Record 24 4-6-4 Gilded age returned $8.30 to place but was never going to catch Artorius. I probably should have given more thought to the Fauci race as he ran 3rd and couldn’t run down a big longshot to get up for 2nd. I haven’t gotten to look at this card as much as I’d like. Best bet: Race 2 - #10 Son of a Birch 10/1 ML, Morley/Castellano. I like these Temple City horses in turf routes and Javy is pretty hot lately. This one never had a chance in his last. Best value: Race 5 - #2 Flying Emperor 10/1 ML, Wright/De Diego. I’m a sucker for some of these Finger Lakes horses as they’re almost always underbet. This one has never finished worse than 2nd. |
Saturday, 7/30
Best Bet - Race 9: 2 Epicenter 3/2 I never usually take such a small price but I think with the presence of both of the Chad runners that this is one of those rare occasions that the horse is still an overlay. I've just always thought he is the class of this bunch and I believe the Preakness a lot of different things conspired against him. Fully expect him to have enjoyed the freshening and get back to proving that he's the best of these today. Appears to be training like he's back to his A game. Best Value - Race 10: 10 Colosseo 6/1 Obviously this is a total guess but I want to see Capensis do it again today especially given the post. So I started looking and kept poking holes in everyone else. Colosseo led St Mark's Basilica last year and was only beaten under two lengths. So we know there is some ability there. Why this horse is now with Wayne Catalano, what happened after that start or why they targeted this race at Saratoga. I'm going to take the presence of lasix and Rosario today as a positive though...kind of a total guess but feels like a decent spot for one...especially as this card today didn't do a ton for me as most races I either liked the favorites or had no clue. Good luck. |
After Day 11.
Total wagered: $104.00 Total returned: $93.30 Record 24 4-6-4 Sunday July 31. Best bet: Race 8 - #1 L’Imperator 6/1 (Brown/Franco) Best value: Race 7 - #3 Sanctuary City 10/1 (Ferraro/Carmouche) |
Sunday, July 31st
Best Bet - Race 5: 9 Baby Blythe 9/2 Best Value - Race 10: 7 Sharp Sensation 6/1 |
After Day 14.
Total wagered: $112.00 Total returned: $93.30 I've whiffed in my last couple races. I didn't have much time to look at the PPs last week and it showed. Kicking myself for not picking Gunite as I really hated the favorite in that race and ended up betting Gunite...but it happens. I was a bit preoccupied. Hopefully I can rebound and pick a few winners this week. Best bet: Race 7 - #3 - Tiergan 8/5 ML, Giangiulio/I.Ortiz. I guess we will see what price Tiergan goes off at. With Irad aboard, I'm not optimistic but I'll take 8/5 as I think he's got a very strong chance to win this. I may look a little closer at the card in the next hour or two and see if there is a better price to put here...but if not, I'll roll with Tiergan. Best value: Race 5 - #4 Triumphant Return 10/1 ML, Barker/Castellano. Castellano has been hot so I've been taking a closer look at all of his mounts. This one interests me quite a bit as the works are solid, the pedigree screams turf to me, and the winner from his start here last year went on to win the Swale earlier this year. I'm not going to count that race much against him and if he's 10/1 or above, why not? Sosua Summer for Mott hasn't won in 8 tries and his only time sprinting lost a lot of ground in the stretch. Of course, the winner of that race went on to win 4 consecutive stakes races including the Quick Call two weeks ago. The runner up won next time out and followed it up with an allowance win. But still, he's not for me. Java Buzz draws Prat again and may be the horse to beat...but I just don't like him at a short price. |
It’ll be interesting to see what Triumphant Return goes off at. EVERYONE (including me) seemingly likes that horse.
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