![]() |
Quote:
|
I know Mike doesn't like the synthetic tracks.I don't hold that against him,because he is a track bias player.He bets horses this way,and as he has said, he feels pretty much lost on a fair track,and I would hate it too.
|
Quote:
There is even a third company that makes their own unique surface. Michael Dickinson's surface is going to be used at one of the tracks in Northern California. So you have the Dickinson surface, polytrack, and cushiontrack, all of which are different. Not only that, there will even be differences in tracks made by the same company, depending on the climate where they are installed. |
Playing synthetic tracks more and more often I have found that I'm getting used to the tracks playing more evenly and when i look at AQU for example it really stands out even more how biased it is. I find the racing less exciting on the pure speed favoring tracks.
|
Quote:
Climate is the big factor IMHO. All of us want to see horse run uninjured. The point I was attempting to make, that you explained, is that this surface isn't "equal" everywhere. Some folks were sold a lot of promises. Then came the problems. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
I thiught this was interesting. Polytrack's PowerPoint presentation to the CHRB....
http://polytrack.com/presentation/index.html |
Quote:
but if anyone would know about bias-bitching, i guess you'd recognize it for sure. |
Quote:
|
I remember Oracle's post on the ESPN board after Vindication was announced to be off the KY Derby trail for one of his 5000 injuries.
went something like I told you soI told you soI told you soI told you soI told you soI told you soI told you soI told you so............................ seems applicable again on this subject. this stuff is dangerous and a maintenence logistical nightmare. well done Hollypark. hopefully they will at least get a big "thank you" card from Santa Anita for showing them what not to do. Repent |
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
In what i do, its my job to identify talent. I'm not a professional gambler, I think that day to day gambling has become vey difficult with the mass marketed sheets, selling of clocker info, and all the info that is available in the DRF for five bucks. In the days of my youth, in the 80's and early to mid 90's guys who kept track of tariner switches(which were NOT listed in the DRF), breeding(which was NOT listed in the DRF), trainer stats(which were NOT listed in the DRF), biases(which nobody reported in the DRF or elsewhere as well as bad trips), and using sheets(which used to be used by a small number of guys instead of mass marketed), I remember when they were the key to the vault. Not anymore. Other than some pik-6 scores this year with Lans and a pair of huge hits on BC Day and Derby day(huge overpayments in comparison to what they would have paid on a "regular" racing day without the pumped up handle, do you really think Barbaro over BC over Step would pay 11,500 on a regular racing day? Try 3 grand maybe) I find it hard to win consistently anyplace. Beyer and Crist and Litfin are dead right as far as i can see. Playesr used to be able to grind away day afetr day and make a few bucks consistenty if they were sharp. Now its more like a few big scores a year have to make a you a winner, and its nowhere near as fun as it used to be in the old days. I have no problem passing the poly/cushion tracks and not in one post, NOT ONE!! have you heard me complain that I blew a bet on this stuff. Its because I'm not playing it. But when I see clearly superior horses getting trounced by gerbils, yeah i have a problem with that. As far as your contention that these surfaces play unbiased? Are you ****ing serious? try telling that to anyone who ran a horse at keeneland who had speed, see if they think these tracks are "fair". I like to see talent rewarded, and I don't see how a clearly inferior filly to the runner up staggering home ahead of the other staggerers proves anything other than she destested it a little less than the others. Do you really think that Belgravia could beat Notional on the dirt? Even come within the same area code? The days will be upon us next year when trainers and owners begin shipping horses with dirt talent out of town and away to dirt tracks. It won't happen yet, because SA will be racing on dirt(can't start soon enough for me!!!!!!!) and guys will stick around with cushion failures to race on dirt there. But follow the trends, Cali trainers are already setting up shop in the east with a division of runners, and I hear more are going to happen. Those are trainers planning for the future Scuds, they know owners will grow tired fast of horses who have ability and aren't putting out on synthetic surfaces who cost a bundle losing and that they will ship these horses East. They don't wanna lose these horses in the future and will open these cross country divisions so that if a talented horse won't put out on it, that they won't lose the horse to another East Coast trainer, they can simply move it to the other division they have with a dirt track. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
Imagine a rematch of the top two on dirt? How many ****ing lengths do you think Jump On In would win by? How about a Notional-belgravia dirt rematch? Wanna tell me whos favored in that one? |
Mike,horses are going wire to wire on the cushion.Some are winning from just off the pace,and some are coming from well off the pace.This particular surface is going to play fair most of the time.It is right now playing fair most of the time.Some dirt tracks favor speed.Everybody is so used to it that they think a surface like the cushion is biased against speed.It isn't.The dirt is biased for speed,and against raters.Yes,Keeneland was biased against speed in the 1st part of the meet.They can make changes to get it more fair.I am sure they will do that.Horses are wiring fields on the CUSHION.We don't know why Notional stopped.Maybe he has a bleeding problem ,or an injury.Maybe he needs the harder speed biased surface to run his best race.Dilemma ran great at both tracks.Again,I think if there is an unfair surface, it is the concrete that Baffert and Headley rely on.Oneil is happy with the cushion track,and obviously thought Notional liked it.Some horses are gunna need that concrete to run their best.He may be one.I don't know.
|
Quote:
Scuds, I have yet tohear from anyone that their horses don't train well on it. What i do hear is that they train great and then don't run a step on it during the race. Jump On In TRAINED FASTER on it than she RAN ON IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! She has so much more ability than Quick that it aint funny. You cashed a bet, props. But I will pose the question again, you win a contest and you can choose which filly's earnings you get from here on out, which filly do you take? |
It amazes me that you think trainers would run horses on the cushion if they thought they didn't like it.I haven't heard that comment from trainers."She doesn't like it as much as the dirt,but we are gunna see if she can overcome it." Who is saying that? You are saying it.You are assuming horses don't like it (after they get beat.) They like it,but they might need the advantage of the concrete to get their speed to last.Which track has horses winning from different parts of the field routinely? The cushion.Anita is the one where one part of the field often wins most of the races.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
There ain't a place to ship to within hundreds of miles. They are training there, they got horses, they gotta try it and run. It ain't like they have options. |
Quote:
|
I love Notional but there is nothing surprising about a horse that just ran huge at six furlongs flattening out in the end of a seven furlong race. The distance could have done him in as much as anything and the previous race certainly could have taken a lot out of him. Very hard to place the blame on the cushion track especially when he loses to a $2 million horse and another very nice horse in Dillemma. What happened to Circle the World is a much better argument against Cushion Track than Notional.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
I don't think you are getting what I hold to be true. Its not the bias or lack of one that I dislike, far from it. I love closing biases on dirt tracks, its easier to score with one of those. But I truly don't think the majority of horses run their best on it. In a race like the one with Jump and Miss, I think the time will show you that noone particularly loved it. If it was a surface where some just loved it, that would be fine as well. But i don't see that. I see figs crashing by as many as 5 horses in the same race, which eliminates the notion that one or two just didnt fire for other reasons than the surface. Hard to convince me that day in and day out when 3-6 horses in a race don't run a fig commensurate with their ability, that horses just aren't firing on it. I think many of these races go to the horse who dislikes it the least. That I have a problem with. Lack of a bias I don't have a problem with. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Here's the lowdown on what screwed the track up so bad, the trackman for some strange reason thought it would be a good idea to switch the rollers and the harrows around . So he put the rollers on right behind the tractor and the harrows on behind the rollers, the end product was wavy gravy. I just dont understand what part of maintenance free surface dont they get , it must just be the human nature of the trackman to try and mess with it.
The track was uniform and waveless this morning now if they could just refrain from *ucking with it we should be in good shape. |
I'll say this ,Oracle.Many of the horses we have talked about being disappointments on this cushion track (in the last week) have been ridden as if they are still at Santa Anita.This track is (to me)atleast 1 second slower than the dirt they had here(yet they are still riding as if they are at Santa Anita.)They need to respect the fact that it is slower.That means when Solis ' horse went a 44'3 it was like going a a 43'4 or something,and the others were trying to keep up with that horse.The horse you speak of(JUMP ON IN) was 2 lengths off this 44'3(to me that is probably more like going 44 flat or something.)It is too fast for a 2 year old filly to run,and hang around for 7f. Court went 22.50,and 45.18 while clear on the lead in the 7th race.It was not a contested pace,and he kept going easily all the way around on the front.There is a fine line,and they are running too fast for this surface.For instance Notional was leading at about a 1:10 clip.Well,I think to the horse it feels more like a 1:09,and that might just have been too quick as well.When they stop riding the track like a speed track,I think a lot of these horses will stick around and have a say in the finish.Put it this way:If you're at Anita,you probably will find guys trying to avoid going sub 44(even if they can.)I think they need to try to stay at or above around 45 flat on this track.When they finally figure this out,horses like Jump will win.They need to make the adjustment (or they will struggle to finish 1st.) I think these horses like Jump like the track,but you can only go so fast on it if you want to hang around.They need to ride "more Eastern," and less like they are at Anita.
|
Quote:
--Dunbar |
I must complement the posters on this thread. It has stayed on track and relevant for the most part. All very interesting stuff. Thanks to those of you that take the time to observe and share.
And it has remained civil. Very nice stuff. Carry-on please. |
Quote:
She gives credibility to the report which said the same thing on the internet yesterday. |
Quote:
|
What I observe at the finish line is a bunch of horses who are going up and down and not forward. The horses who hang on and win seem to be laboring as bad as those chasing them but have a head start and hang on.
I don't see horses really running at the end. Belgravia was narrowly saved by the line and it shocked me. He looked home free easily and the 2nd horse didn't appear to be flying to me so much as Belgravia was just exhausted. I'm still seeing single file setups, with less contesting of the pace and movement on the backside then on dirt. I'm watching Scuds, even though I'm not playing I'm watching. The closers I see don't seem to be closing so much as the horses who they pass appear to be walking. I'm also glad Honu said what she said about being decieved by times when she works her horses on it. I'm seeing jocks that appear to have no idea how much horse they have underneath them. Sitting chilly as if they have a ton and asking and finding they are dead empty. Also seeing guys whaling away on horses on the turn as if they are in trouble, who keep on rallying even though your eyes tell you they should be empty. |
Quote:
I just dont get why they cant let well enough alone, I know trainers for the most part are about speed out here , but to be honest 32,000 $ claimers should run 6 1/2 in 1:17 and good horses should go 8 lengths faster in about 1:15. When cheap horses go 3/4 in 1:08 and change they shouldnt wonder why their horses break down and are sore or do they even care. |
Quote:
When I was in Kentucky Frank Lyons, who used to train, and I got in a horse talk and I told him I thought the Cali trainers were the problem, not the surfaces, because every 7 days they zoom the **** out of them in the morning. He responded to me with something that I had never even thought of, he said they didn't do it out of stupidity, he said they did it out of insecurity. He said the guys out there were insecure and felt like if the horse wasn't zooming than he wasn't very good. I know Mullins takes it easy on them, and its my guess that he wins a lot because he claims these horses who are being beaten on and eases up on them. Does ANYONE out there just breeze easily and gallop them into fitness? because quite frankly i don't think any new surface is gonna fix whats wrong out there, which is to work em just as fast as their little legs can carry them every 7 days. Nobody good in NY does that, nobody. You work a horse in 58 flat in Cali, and the trainer is thrilled. When that happens in NY, you can bet your ass that an exercise rider is now unemployed. |
Quote:
|
I read up on this CushionTrack/PolyTrack stuff and from what I can tell there's not much difference between the two. It's Silica, rubber, other plastic and wax. If I were running Hollywood, I'd spend a few dollars and hire away someone from the Turfway track crew since that's the place where it's worked the best. If you get bored, here's the PolyTrack PPoint presentation to the California folks.
http://polytrack.com/presentation/index.html |
| All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:14 PM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.