Great selections Kitan. Nice Coldpunch exacta in the 5th.
I shouldn't have gone to bed after the third.

awesome work Kitan!!! Thanks for posting..

Thanks ADJMK and casp... Not the most exciting mid-week HV card...

Race 1:
#11 Tigerlad began to find some form towards the end of last season before putting in a stinker over a yielding surface. Based on his trackwork he didn’t seem fully cranked for his return run last out but still ran a decent 5th. Can definitely improve on that.

#8 Wonder Brahma should find this 1200m distance more suitable, but this is now his third run in the past 2.5 weeks.

Race 3:
#6 Carry The Diamond did not disgrace himself in either of his two career starts down the ST straight and comes over to HV where he has trialled nicely leading into this.

Race 5:
#4 Telecom Rocket arguably would have won last time with a clean run in the stretch. Hopefully a bit more room opens up for him this time around.

#1 Hercules blew them away last time in his season opener and will be tough to beat if he repeats that performance.

#5 Oriental Elite ran well enough going longer at the end of last season. Returned to sprinting off the layoff and the run looks better than on paper---tough trip and fast closing sectionals. Looks a good price add if he can get a good trip from post 9.

#2 Won Ball has done absolutely nothing since arriving in HK, but his recent trials have been improved and worth adding underneath at a monster price.

PLAYS
R1 WP 11
R1 EX BOX 4,8,11
R3 WP 6
R3 TRI 6/1,5/1,3,4,5,10,11
R5 WP 4
R5 EX BOX 1,4,5
R5 TRI 4/1,5/1,2,3,5,7,8,11

Good luck!

Great job on 10/10 card Kitan.

Good morning Kitan,

Great job on 10/10, good luck today!

Taking a flyer on the 2, hoping the last one out was not a fluke. Going to key with your selections on a Tri.

HK Happy Valley
Race 2
TR
$52
5,6/2-6,9/2-6,9

GL!

One more swing:

HK Happy Valley
Race 3
TR
$52
5,6/1,4-6,10/1,2,4-6,8,10

Thanks gamblin and chuck...

A 2nd, 3rd, and 4th from the three key plays...one of those days...

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $372
Return: $493.60
Total: +$121.60 (-$37.50 from previous)

Two G2s on an intriguing card…a few interesting value plays in the first half of the card…

Race 1:
#9 Joy N Fun Legend: As I mentioned last time, he has done absolutely nothing on the track, although he has had some excuses, which was also the case last time (big mid-race move). There’s absolutely no speed in this race, and he’s drawn well and down to 114lbs with the apprentice. If he can get in front and back it down to a crawl, who knows what can happen. I’ll take a stab at boxcar odds.

On the other hand, the most likely winner for me is #3 Home Win. Finished 4th in his two runs in this class and is now 7lbs better off versus the winners those days (who are also in here). Drawn the rail, can go forward if necessary, and his two wins in Australia were at 1900m and 2000m. 5-1 overnight looks an OK price.

Race 2:
#14 is around even money on the overnight odds and I think that’s a huge underlay, but I didn’t find much to like in here. #4 Hang’s Decision has been the victim of some poor draws lately, being forced to sit wide. He ran well with a good trip two starts ago and hopefully something similar can play out here.

Race 3:
#5 Rattan was caught wide and without cover last time, so we can put a line through that run. Down at 119lbs he’s the best weighted runner in here, and while he’s against a couple of runners on the way up while he may be on the way down, the price is more than right.

#1 Hot King Prawn may not be fully cranked for this and has to carry the top weight, but he loves running fresh and is the key exotics play.

Race 4:
I’m not too sure about #2 Ezra over the 1600m, but he has run 3rd and 4th over the course and distance, and this isn’t the strongest race.

Race 5:
#1 Triple Triple didn’t get a clear path last time until inside the final 1/16th, but despite that was still 5th in Class 3. Just missed in his last C4 try and from gate 3 should avoid the poor, wide trips he's encountered in his other recent runs.

#12 Super Red Dragon has finished 2nd twice in his last four runs. Must use for exotics.

#11 One Happy Star had to work very hard early from gate 12 when returning off a long layoff at HV. Won a trial wire to wire prior to that and now drawn the rail in a race not full of speed. Good price add.

Race 10:
#12 Romantic Combo’s work improved during the off-season and he showed ability last time when flying home in 44.8 (last 400m in 22.07). Will get back again from a wide draw but there should be a bit more pace in this, and he is third off the layoff.


PLAYS
R1 WP 3,9
R1 EX BOX 1,3,5,9
R2 WP 4
R3 WP 5
R3 EX 1,5/1,5
R4 WP 2
R5 WIN 1
R5 Q 1/3,4,5,7,9,11,12
R5 TRI 1/11,12/3,4,5,7,9,11,12
R10 WP 12

Good luck!

Thanks for the first 2 races Kitan. Going to sleep before I blow it back knowing I have some cash in my account for tomorrow.

Glad I stayed up.
R5- $1 tri $789 for 1-11-12 box.
Thanks Kitan

nioce call on Hangs Decision...thanks for the opinions K!!

Glad you got something...I played that race horribly :zz:

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $431
Return: $568.60
Total: +$137.60 (+$16.00 from previous)

Really average card at Happy Valley...

Race 1:
#2 Street Scream ran well enough first off the layoff and can improve off that in what is a pretty lacklustre race.

Race 2:
#4 Polymer Luck: 8yo does his best racing over the course and distance and when up on the speed from an inside draw. Out of form at the moment but this is a very weak C5 event.

Race 4:
#4 Jazz Steed has run well over 1200m but I’ve always felt he might be better over 1000m. Should get a perfect trip from gate 2.

#3 Very Sweet Orange hit a hot patch of form last season. Dropping again in ratings and C4 1000m is more suitable. Can wire them.

#1 Happy Good Guys generally runs his best races with a senior jockey and is another who should get a great inside trip.

Race 5:
#9 Star Present is one of the very few fillies going around in HK. She definitely improved in her work since switching to the new barn over the summer and I thought she hit the line well last time over 1200m. Up to 1650m now third off the layoff. There’s no speed in the race so I think she’ll go forward early, and this wouldn’t be the first time the jock has stolen a paceless route race.

Race 6:
#7 Exceed The Stars: HK debutant doesn’t have the strong Australian form, but he looked good enough in his trial over the course and distance and the price will be good.


PLAYS
R1 WP 2
R1 EX BOX 1,2,11,12
R1 TRI 1/2,11,12/2,11,12
R2 WP 4
R4 WP 4
R4 Q 4/1,2,3,5
R4 TRI 4/1,3/1,2,3,5,6,8,12
R5 WP 9
R6 WP 7

Good luck!

Race 3 - Like the 4 Melbourne Hall, with a quinella of 4/7,8,10,11 and a tri wheel of the same

And good luck today Kitan, the first two were close, hope the 4th could be the one!

TR$1.30
2,4/2-4,12/1-5,8,12
HK Happy Valley
$39.00
Race 4

One last small try

QU Box$3.00
3,4,6
HK Happy Valley
$9.00
Race 5

Nothing doing today...some very strangely run races...should have taken the day off, or at least mispunch the 3 instead of the 2 in R1...

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $485
Return: $568.60
Total: +$183.80 (-$53.80 from previous)

Race 1:
#11 Xiang Lan Qi: His two runs at the end of last season weren’t too bad, and the 1400m may suit well. Not a very strong race so worth trying a bomb here.

Race 3:
#13 The Full Bloom shows up in this thread once again. Solid second last time, this race isn’t any tougher, and the price will still be decent.

Race 6:
#1 Easy Go Easy Win: Down into Class 3 where he won and ran second in two tries last season. Should be primed for this third off the layoff, after a first up run over 1000m and a nice tightener when back in a week later.

Race 7:
#12 Vigor Champ closed strongly from last in his season debut and hard to work hard early in his second-up run. He wasn’t beaten far in the end, even after checking sharply, and two horses have come out of that race and won next out. Should get a great trip from the rail post.

Race 10:
A very competitive race with a few promising types, but I’ll take a stab with #13 Right Choice. He has form last season that would make him competitive here, is down to 110lbs with the apprentice, and has a 5: 3-2-0 record over the course and distance. Around 75-1 on the overnight odds.

PLAYS
R1 WP 11
R3 WP 13
R6 WP 1
R6 Q 1/3,8,9,10
R7 WP 12
R7 Q 12/1,2,3,5,6,10,11,13
R10 WP 13

Good luck!

The two stabs I took didn't get great trips...should have played harder in R3 with the runner I'd been following for a while...

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $517
Return: $591.70
Total: +$74.70 (-$9.10 from previous)

Just a couple mid-week plays...looks like it might rain...

Race 1:
#11 Show Mission: First run this season wasn’t poor considering he only had four morning gallops leading into that, second up he was put in an impossible position (second fastest closing sectionals), and last time ventured over the 1400m at Sha Tin. 8yo returns to the HV 1000m where he does his best running and is a good price.

#7 Chunghwa Jingshen: Red hot apprentice hops aboard, meaning he’s 13lbs and 15lbs lighter than 2nd and 5th placed finishes, respectively.

Race 3:
#2 What A Legend set blazing fractions last time over the ST 1400m and now gets back to the HV 1200m, where he’s notched both his wins. Also drops down into Class 4 and draws the rail.

#12 Run The Table showed some improvement in his first start this season and looked to have horse under him last time but never got a clear run. Will use as the exotics play.


PLAYS
R1 WP 11
R1 EX BOX 3,7,8,11
R3 WIN 2
R3 EX BOX 2,12

Good luck!

Race 1 - 6,7,9 quinella (can't play exactas on TS)
I'm liking the 9 for the win, Bedel has ridden Flying Monkey well the past two races and perhaps the couple of pounds makes the difference here.

$7.20 per $3 on the quinella
#9 paid $3.8- to show, so basically a punt on the WS bet.

Race 2 - 1,5,11 quinella box
#1 WS bet

Nice win in the 3rd on #2 Kitan!

Thanks...can't believe he was 3-1...should have been lower!

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $537
Return: $599.80
Total: +$62.80 (-$11.90 from previous)

Competitive card at Sha Tin, featuring the return of champion Exultant in the feature (Race 8).

Race 2:
I took a shot with #10 Moon Peaks earlier in the season, but he reared up as the gates open and lost all chance. Worth trying again.

Race 4:
#13 Smart Charade has been storming home late over 1200m and now steps back up to 1400m third off the layoff.

Race 5:
#8 Soaring Tower makes his raceday debut here, but his two turf trials at HV have been quite decent. This is not the deepest race and he's a strong chance to win on debut.

Race 6:
I've been chasing #11 Authenic Champ all season long so far. He absolutely flew home last time after they crawled up front and the stretchout to ST 1400m looks to suit perfectly. Just don't know what kind of trip he'll get from post 13 in a race without much speed on paper.

#13 Winwin Thirtythree may not have won last time out, but the trouble he encountered in the stretch definitely wouldn't have helped. Doesn't show much speed on paper but might be force to sit closer than normal from post 12, but he's got a jock aboard who's quite adept in those situations.

Race 8:
#8 Singapore Sling hit the line strongly last time when returning to the track off a year layoff. He's by far the best weighted runner in this race and the price looks very good.

#3 Furore was just given a run around the track last time for fitness. Will definitely improve from that and Moreira hops on this time.

Race 9:
#14 Classic Posh was only a neck behind #8, who is the early fav here, two back. Last time he got shuffled back and only got clear with about 250m left. Over 40-1 on the overnight odds, which is a ridiculous price.

PLAYS
R2 WP 10
R4 WP 13
R5 WP 8
R6 WP 11
R6 EX BOX 11,13
R8 WP 8
R8 EX BOX 3,8
R9 WP 14

Good luck!

Not sure if you can call a 5th place beaten by 2 lengths a bad beat, but jeez...on for a boatload score with that 14 in R9 at an unbelievable price, reels off a 21.80 final 400m, and doesn't even hit the board :zz::zz::zz:


Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $565
Return: $628.60
Total: +$63.60 (+$0.80 from previous)

Thanks for posting Kitan....keep pick them winners!!

Thanks, casp.

At ST this mid-week for the first full dirt card of the season…

Race 1:
Never been a big fan of #1 Demons Rock, but he won in these conditions last year and should get a perfect trip from gate 2. 10lbs bug has been on fire too.

#5 Tailor Made has tried the dirt only once and you can put a line through that as he was completely checked out of the race. He has always trialled well on the surface so worth another chance.

#9 Socket Elite has one of the worst form records in the entire circuit, but he comes off a 5 month layoff and hit the line strongly in his last trial over the course and distance. Bomb drawn the rail.

Race 2:
#2 Dragon Commander was lame after his last AWT run but finished second twice on the dirt last season when rated in the upper echelons of Class 4. Down to C5 for the first time here.

Race 6:
#3 Skyey Supreme was beaten just shy of 4 lengths by #8 last time but moves from gate 14 to gate 2 and gets a 20lbs swing this time. The start prior he absolutely destroyed them wire to wire and can easily see a repeat of that.

PLAYS
R1 WIN 1
R1 EX BOX 1,5,9
R2 WP 2
R6 WIN 3
R6 EX BOX 2,3
R6 TRI 3/2/1,4,5,6,8,10

Good luck!

Couldn't get any exotics home...

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $587
Return: $643.10
Total: +$56.10 (-$7.50 from previous)

Rare weekend meeting at Happy Valley. Haven't had time to look at the whole card in advance...

Race 2:
#2 Magnetism won his last two races in this class, both last year. 30-1 looks too high.

#6 Thunder Stomp should get a much more economical run from post 2.

Race 3:
#5 My Ecstatic has been trialling well---the runner-up from his latest trial won impressively on debut himself last week. Just needs to work out a trip from post 9.

Race 4:
#2 Momentum Galaxy caused an upset earlier in the season when a selection in this thread and can do it again here with a better trip than he got last time.

PLAYS
R2 WP 2,6
R2 Q BOX 2,6,9,12
R3 WIN 5
R4 WP 2

Good luck!

Good luck today Kitan!

QU BOX$3.00
2,5,9,10,12
HK HAPPY VALLEY$30.00
RACE 1

Like Bedel on the #10 - Going to see how odds go before I key a tri with him

Not a great weekend overall...

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $607
Return: $643.10
Total: +$36.10 (-$20.00 from previous)

Biggest week of the HK calendar upon us. International Jockeys’ Championship at Happy Valley followed by the feature races on the weekend. Mickael Barzalona is the outsider at 21-1 to take out the Jockeys’ Championship…I think he’s got some decent rides and would be worth a play, but that pool is not commingled.

Race 1:
#1 Roman Impero hasn’t won since March 2018, but he severely outclasses these. Stormed into 3rd over 1200m in his first run in this class and now steps up to a more suitable 1650m.

#8 Nitro Express is generally never far away over this course and distance and will be running on late again.

#7 Flying Spirit showed some improvement in his sectional times in his first two runs this season. Blinkers come off and up to the HV “mile” may perk him up at a big price.

Race 2:
#1 Noble Desire was taken out by a faller last time out but still hit the line strongly. Down to Class 5 for the first time and drawn the rail. Will be hard to beat.

Race 4:
#6 Young Victory was making up ground late on debut but ran out of room over the last 50m or so. Will improve from that and did trial nicely over the course and distance back in May.

Race 5:
#1 Regency Master has been ultra consistent, with two wins and three other in the money finishes in his last five starts. He is drawn wide, which is why he will be a good price, but I think should be able to get across to sit outside the leader.

#2 Right Honourable began to close in well on the turn but seemed less keen to make up ground in the stretch when having to switch back inside runners. Might be more effective coming down the outside.

#9 Thunder Stomp: 8yo starting to show some form again and should get a good trip from post 3.

Race 6:
#8 Supreme Plus reeled off two in a row to end/start the season but has had a couple of excuses since then (post 12, blood in trachea). Currently 12-1, which is way too high.

Race 9:
#11 Maximus: Undefeated Listed winner in France stormed home on HK debut (22.21 final 400m). Step up to 1800m should suit.

#12 Flying Quest: Generally consistent and won on this card last season.

#2 Savvy Nine has been running well without winning. Hard to play as the fav but equally as difficult to leave out.

PLAYS
R1 WP 1
R1 EX 1/7,8
R2 WP 1
R4 WP 6
R5 WP 1
R5 EX BOX 1,2,9
R6 WP 8
R9 WP 11
R9 EX BOX 2,11,12

Good luck!

Yeesh, wasn't even close...

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $645
Return: $643.10
Total: -$1.90 (-$38.00 from previous)

Some very competitive and intriguing races on International day.

Race 1:
#5 Transcendent: dropping down the handicap to a more suitable rating and should get a decent pace to run at.

Race 2:
There’s no speed in this race at all on paper, so taking a chance with #8 Stay Chill, who showed speed when racing in the UK and might be forced to roll forward from the wide draw.

Race 3:
#1 Arrogant: G1 placed in Aus, put in his best performance in HK last time when dropping into C3. Got a bit of a shuffle that day as well.

Race 4 (Vase):
#2 Chefano: I don’t think he is the best horse in the race nor do I think he is the most likely winner, but at 66-1 on the fixed markets I think he’s incredible value given the small, weak field and that his two starts over 2400m have resulted in a win and a length second to Exultant. He had a couple of excuses to start the season, but this race has always been the target, and with Boudot on board in a paceless race, who knows what can happen.

Race 5 (Sprint):
This has been a tough week for my picks in this race…my original top choice was SCR mid-week and my second pick (#5) got stuck in gate 14, which looks impossible for him given the shape of the race…

#12 Amazing Star has always had talent but finally put it all together last season---his only poor races were when he broke through the gate at the start and then when carrying 133lbs through gruelling early fractions. He wasn’t disgraced in his first try at Group level last time out, running 8th but beaten only 1.75L. He was off two months heading into that and got an awkward trip---he broke like a rocket but had to steady back to get cover. Should get a great trip from post 2.

#6 Tower of London is the only G1 winner in this field and does his best racing when allowed to produce one run around horses and on fast ground, the combination of which he has not gotten in his last three runs. Ideally would have had a prep for this, but he wouldn’t be here if he wasn’t fit.

#2 Hot King Prawn had no business winning last time after sitting 3wd with cover, but just wonder if that run 3 weeks ago sapped too much out of him.

#1 Classique Legend is the co-highest rated sprinter in the world at the moment, but as he’s changed into a HK stable rather than shipping directly from Aus, his preparation for this has not been straightforward and the rail draw probably doesn’t suit him. Could very well just be too good for them, but not for me at a short price.

Race 7 (Mile):
Not much to say about #2 Golden Sixty…13/14 lifetime with a devastating closing kick. Gets to show it on the world stage this time.

#7 Romanised is my shot to juice the exotics. The heavy ground three back didn’t suit and he was probably still feeling the effects of that 3 weeks later. His run last month was just a prep and he didn’t run poorly considering he missed the start and was carrying 140lbs. His form prior to those runs gives him more than a hope of hitting the board here.

Race 8 (Cup):
#1 Skalleti: 12/16 lifetime and just keeps on improving. Has looked really good in his work since arriving in HK and should get a great trip from post 4.

PLAYS
R1 WP 5
R2 WP 8
R3 WP 1
R4 WP 2 (fixed odds at 66-1)
R5 WP 12
R5 EX BOX 2,6,12
R7 P 7
R7 EX 2/7
R8 WP 1

Good luck!

Yikes x2...and a kick in the gut in the Sprint...after the Singapore runner got withdrawn midweek I turned my attention the the 5, but after he drew the outside post I couldn't see him getting a reasonable trip. I guess for all his questionable rides, Ryan Moore can still turn up with that magic every now and then...worst part is the 5 went off at double the odds of the 12 that I thought would be a sneaky play :zz::zz::zz:

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $678
Return: $643.10
Total: -$34.90 (-$33.00 from previous)

No time for post-big day hangover…

Race 1:
#7 Victorious Seeker came into form at the end of last season in C5. Wasn’t disgraced when getting a tough trip back in C4 and had no chance last time off the dawdling pace. Second off the layoff here.

No speed on paper here and although #5 Pretty Cute is drawn wide, he has shown speed in his trials and Borges has shown himself to be more than capable of stealing races at HV. Didn’t run that poorly last out anyways, getting shuffled at the crucial point in the race.

Race 4:
#6 Ever Force: Has trialled well, showing speed. A little put off by his stop-start work pattern, but this isn’t the strongest race and the price is decent.

Race 6:
#7 Farshad: Third off the layoff here and back to a more suitable distance---he’s 5/9 in the money over this course and distance compared to 1/15 in the money in other conditions.

Race 7:
Race full of speed…#3 Saul’s Special can get the perfect trip from the inside gate with the red hot apprentice aboard.

PLAYS
R1 WP 5,7
R1 EX BOX 5,7,11
R4 WP 6
R6 WP 7
R6 EX BOX 6,7,9
R7 WP 3

Good luck!