Love the 6 in the 7th... good luck

Wednesday, August 26.


Best bet: Race 5 - #3 Checksandbalances (8/5 ML). A stumble at the start proved to be too difficult for Checksandbalances to overcome last time out, though she finished a gamely 3rd by only a neck. Without the stumble, I think she wins easily.

Longshot: Race 7 - #1 Buy Land and See (8/1 ML). I'm not totally convinced that Buy Land and See will like a 5.5 furlong sprint but with all the speed signed on for this race, my guess is he can sit off the pace a bit. I'm going to trust Jose Ortiz to work out a perfect trip for this one and hope that he'll be flying late.

Best bets: $40.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $40.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $80.00 wagered. $37.00 returned.

Well, I ended up with two 3rd place finishers. I guess that's better than what I've been doing but still pretty pathetic. Checksandbalances ended up being the horse you wanted out of her most recent race...but the two that beat her were much, much better. I'm not sure I could have ended up on the longshot that finished 2nd but Rosario's horse had some appeal but I discounted her. As far as Race 7, there is no freaking way I would have made my pick if I knew he’d go off at 3/1. Ah well. I actually ended up putting a few bucks on Jack and Noah in that race. It made zero sense that he was 5/1, though didn’t think he’d win as easily as he did.

Moving on to today. Thursday, August 27.

Best bet: Race 1 - #2 Posse Can Disco (5/1 ML). None of these horses look very inspiring, particularly the ones who have already raced. The #2 Posse Can Disco is a first time starter but comes into this one with two very good workouts and draws Ricardo Santana who I have no problem leaning on in a dirt sprint.

Longshot: Race 6 - #6 Flashing Red (10/1 ML). I'm not fully understanding the 1/1A as a 6/5 morning line favorite so I think this is a race where we might see a price. I'm not crazy about the horses that have raced on turf so I'm looking for a horse that might like the surface switch. This one has never raced on turf but her dirt figures could put her in the mix if she takes a liking to the grass. I'm a little bit intrigued with her being claimed and switched immediately to the turf, which she may like based on pedigree. The other first time turf starter that I like in here is the #3 Glass Ceiling but she's listed at 7/2 on the morning line and I wouldn't be shocked to see her lower than that based on the drop in class.

Note: Race 6 may come off the turf. NYRA reported about a half hour ago that the turf races are ON...for now. If that changes, I'll have to switch it up.

Best bets: $44.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $44.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $88.00 wagered. $37.00 returned.

I’ll update tomorrow when I have more time.

Best Bet: Race 3 #4 Value Proposition
Best Value: Race 7 #3 Getmotherarose

GL.

Race 6 is OFF the turf. I’ll switch my longshot pick to:

Race 8 - #1 Mischief Afoot (6/1 ML). I don’t have anything majorly bad to say about Texas Swing other than he’s coming off a long layoff and his works don’t pop out to me. Mischief Afoot on the other hand has some pretty nice recent works and looked pretty strong breaking his maiden. Perhaps this one is just in better form right now so I’ll take a shot.

With both of my picks scratched I’ll update:

Best Bet: Race 6 #1A Little Red Frog
Best Value: Race 8: #6 Danny California

Updated the returns as Mischief Afoot finished 2nd and returned $4.80 to place.

Friday, August 28.

Best bet: Race 3 - #6 Principal Dancer (7/2 ML). Principal Dancer ran well at this level last time out and now gets a jockey upgrade with Luis Saez taking over for a barn that has been pretty hot recently. The very minor cutback from 6.5 furlongs to 6 shouldn't make a huge difference but I think he'll like the slightly shorter distance.

Longshot: Race 8 - #5 Night Time (15/1 ML). Based on the workouts, Dale Romans seems to have this one cranked up. Last race, Night Time got bumped a few times at the start and then would not settle. That race was also off a long layoff, so I'll forgive him for that. If we look back to his 2YO dirt races, he should be able to win against this bunch with a little bit of improvement. This will be his first race against older horses, so there's obviously a little concern there but it's also nearly September and these 4YOs are beatable.


Best bets: $48.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $48.00 wagered. $23.60 returned.
Total: $96.00 wagered. $41.80 returned.

Wagered: $64.00
Returned: $79.20

Best Bet: Race 9 #2 Micheline
Best Value: Race 7 #3 Matta

Another runner I would have never picked if I knew the post time odds. But that’s part of the challenge, I guess. Getting back $2.50 for Principal Dancer’s 2nd place finish. Maybe Night Time can make it up for me.

Maybe he can...... good job Mo

Thanks. Had a crappy day as my car overheated with my two little ones in it with me. All good now. But it was nice to be able to hit this one. Haven't been able to look at tomorrow's races but hopefully I can build off of this.

Best bets: $52.00 wagered. $20.70 returned.
Longshots: $52.00 wagered. $54.60 returned.
Total: $104.00 wagered. $75.30 returned.

Nice job today! Like I said...it just takes one to get you going

Yup! Gotta keep it rolling now.

Saturday, August 29.

Best Bet: Race 8 - #6 Complexity (4/1 ML). Last November, Complexity had an eye-opening win in an optional claiming race at Aqueduct. He shipped to Santa Anita after that and was then thoroughly beaten in the Malibu. In his last three Grade 1 races, he has lost by a combined 49 3/4 lengths. So what the heck is so appealing about him in this one? Last month he returned off a long layoff to race 4-wide, close to a respectable pace, and just kept going as he entered the stretch while others close to the pace faded. That signals to me that he's ready to take on graded stakes company once more. With many of the typical dirt sprinters in here like Whitmore, Firenze Fire, and Mind Control, combined with some fresh faces like Fortin Hill and Funny Guy, Complexity should still be a nice price.

Longshot: Race 11 - #8 Miss Jimmy (15/1 ML). Miss Jimmy comes to Saratoga from the Finger Lakes where she has finished in the top 2 in her last 10 races. She's 11-6-4-0 lifetime. This is obviously a step up in class for her but I don't think she's far off from this group. Flashpackinbarbie looks like the early pacesetter here but I'd be surprised if she gets an easy lead, which should allow Miss Jimmy to sit off the pace and make a late run. She seems to be begging for more distance than the 5 and 5.5 furlong races that she's run recently. She'll get her chance here. The question is whether she's good enough.

Great pick on Night Time Moses...classic Dale Romans winner there, I totally missed.

Wagered: $72.00
Returned: $79.20

Best Bet: Race 10 #5 Zainalarab - I'm guessing the 7/2 ML won't hold up but I tend to trust DA over my own instincts. Love the way this horse is working and while it may appear Always Carina is outworking her, I think if you look closely this horse is actually the one ready for the 6f dirt sprint. I think both will end up being really good, but think AC will show that next out with some added ground, most likely on the turf. Jouster is a bit scary but I think is going to need one and probably some added ground. None of the horses with a start look scary in here.

Best Value: Race 8 #7 Win Win Win - I have always loved this horse particularly looking for a cutback on the dirt. I can't knock the turf experiment but this feels like about as dirtied up (although the last trip is beyond obvious) as you can get at this point. His effort in Tampa at this distance as a 3 year old competes with any of these besides the juiced up monster runs from FF, and I think the slight cutback off a trip and natural development...any improvement off that effort arguably makes WWW the horse to beat at a 12/1 ML. Couple notes on some others in here for better or worse: While Whitmore's style makes him seem like the perfect 7f horse I actually think he's better shorter plus of those exiting the Vanderbilt I prefer Firenze Fire. Mind Control to me sat the softest trip in racing and I don't like at all today. Lexitonian seems to be in fine form and is dangerous for Sisterson but I'm siding against...True Timber is another live longshot for Sisterson who probably can't win but could spice up exotics. I don't like Complexity at all in here. While I'm probably going to make the Complexity-Whitmore exacta box a stone cold lock...Complexity is coming off a soft trip huge effort and has failed to consolidate those efforts everytime prior. I suppose it's a little nuts to like WWW so much and hate Complexity so much but I think there are enough factors...Majestic Dunhill is always a threat underneath if they get leg weary late and Fortin' Hill can beat me as I think that last field/fig is suspect.

So I'll try to get through this leg with WWW and Funny Guy - who I think has more to offer. I love the way he scooted home late when finally challenged last out. I realize that was also a soft trip and the waters are much deeper today but I think the last two are essentially paired up and could see something special today...a new beyer top as I suspect we may see makes him very tough today.

WWW had something up at the start last time out as he gave the field a large headstart and was able to finish strong for 2nd. I definitely like him and will use him underneath. We disagree on Complexity but I may be the fool buying into him again. We shall see. Good luck!

Great call on WWW. I’m kicking myself for not having that exacta.

^Thanks man, I caught the exacta and win money and live in the pick-5 but really kicking myself for not listening to you more as I used True Timber in 2nd/3rd but only snuck Complexity into the 3rd slot on tris...that's trifectas not tries...wild race I don't know what to make of but I certainly won't apologize for winners in this game.

Good luck the rest of the card. I just noticed Zainalarab scratched, not sure when that happened so not even sure where I'm at in this pick 5.

After Fox screwed everyone over, I watched the replay trying to figure out how the 7 won that race. Wow what a run.

Great call on Win Win Win!

Who would have thought that Complexity would pay more to place than Miss Jimmy? $6.40 for Complexity's 2nd place finish and $5.70 for Miss Jimmy are added to the totals.

Best bets: $56.00 wagered. $27.10 returned.
Longshots: $56.00 wagered. $60.30 returned.
Total: $112.00 wagered. $87.40 returned.

Sunday August 30th.

Best bet: Race 8 - #8 Harris Bay (3/1 ML). Of the horses coming out of the 8th race at Saratoga on August 2nd, I want Harris Bay. The #4 Gandy Dancing had his own issues in that race, but Harris Bay got bumped and squeezed early and was still able to finish strong, almost catching Gandy Dancing down the stretch. Harris Bay now goes for his 2nd race off of a 7-month layoff and should improve off the last performance.

Longshot: Race 9 - #1 Lucky Stride (15/1 ML). If you're a believer in equibase speed figures, Lucky Stride is not only the most consistent runner of this bunch but also the clear best. She's got a career high of 117 compared to Letruska's career high of 113 and she's also recorded a 100+ equibase speed figure in her last 4 starts. I rarely use equibase numbers but this horse has me intrigued with her recent sharp workouts with stablemate Win Win Win, who came flying home to win the Forego on Saturday. I'm not enamored with any of the other horses in this race, so at 15/1, I'll take a shot on this wildcard.

Thanks hoss...

Wagered: $76.00
Returned: $103.90

Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Golden Award - What a great race this Shuvee came up...you could absolutely make a case for any and I've debated several in here...I ultimately want to lean on Golden Award. I've always thought she was really nice and while she really throws up some duds, I like her best races. This is the first time in a while that Mott seems to have her avoiding a need for at least a freshening. Clearly she wasn't ready or up for the Phipps but I felt the Summer Colony showed she is back. I realize Nonna Madeline disposed of her late but I think this has been the target all along and she'll be ready for her best today. Her last work on xbtv was a real eye popper to me...I do think she will have to prove she can rate and it's been a while/she's only done it vs much lesser...I think she's sitting on full go and hasn't shown her absolute best yet. Hoping Nonna Madeline attacks Letruska like she did her in the last and she sits just off/makes first run.

Best Value: Race 7 #7 Dancingwthdaffodls - I can actually hardly believe myself for landing on her...I almost dismissed off the perfect trip/weak field for a horse who's shown she doesn't like to win...while the July 30th race has any number of angles for trip handicappers I just think they may all end up overbet. On the other hand a horse who looks like she doesn't want to win or stretch out may go overlooked. I just think she's a different horse since the last layoff...and with a few dirt starts over some subpar turf efforts preceding that she's fairly easy to dismiss. She's ran OK with an improved closing kick since though and seems to be in the best form of her career. While the stretchout might not work I think she has enough speed to find a decent spot maybe in the second flight today...note the 78 Beyer at a mile last Summer (competitive in here) came off the heels of much lesser form.

Good luck.

A 2nd place finish from Harris Bay adds $3.20 to the total returns.

Best bets: $60.00 wagered. $30.30 returned.
Longshots: $60.00 wagered. $60.30 returned.
Total: $120.00 wagered. $90.60 returned.

Wednesday September 1.

Best bet: Race 6 - #13 - Saratoga Love (9/2 ML). This one is currently listed on the AE list so it's possible that she won't draw into the field. I'll check scratches tomorrow and see. She is by far the fastest horse in the field and should be the early pacesetter, even with the outside post. The expected favorite, Voting Agreement, will have to work out a good trip to be able to catch her and I'm just not sure she is as good as the morning line would indicate.

Longshot: Race 9 - #1 Blame the Booze (9/2 ML). I don't know if he even really counts as a longshot but he's the 4th choice in a 6-horse field so let's roll with it. Originally scheduled to run on turf, Blame the Booze's debut was washed off and he won fairly easily in the mud. He's got a tall, strong frame that looks to me like it should take to the turf. Obviously, American Monarch has the Beyer advantage over this field but 7/5 on him is pretty unappealing as he ran only 3 weeks ago and the strength of that field is completely unknown. He finished well after being close to a very slow pace. Blame the Booze, on the other hand, should be forwardly placed with an aggressive ride from Luis Saez and has a very good chance to wire this field, assuming he likes the turf.

With the races off the turf, switching the picks up.

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 Twelfth Labour (7/2 ML).
Longshot: Race 2 - #3 Vinda Machine (20/1 ML).

Very nice hit on your longshot play

Thanks. With the 5 adding blinkers, the 6 looking like the main speed, and aggressive riders like Carmouche and Lezcano on the other horses, I was hoping for a quick pace that allowed the 3 to reel them in. And the 3 had run at least decently on a wet track before. I definitely didn't expect the 1 to still be there but that couldn't have come together any better for me.

Good reasoning, Mo. keep up the good work.

Thanks. I’m kind of amazed at how much better the ROI and overall results are for my longshots vs my best bets. Not so much ROI but my best bets have not done well.

Go for 2 Longshots . It makes things much more interesting .

Great job with Vinda!

Finally out of the red with Vinda Machine scoring.

Best bets: $64.00 wagered. $30.30 returned.
Longshots: $64.00 wagered. $98.70returned.
Total: $128.00 wagered. $129.00 returned.

Thursday, September 3.

Best bet: Race 10 - #4 Harlem Heights (5/1 ML). This 1/2 sister to Point of Entry should like the surface switch to turf.

Longshot: Race 7 - #5 Five Alarm Robin (8/1 ML). This race looks fairly competitive but Kitten of the Sea removes her blinkers and that may allow Five Alarm Robin a relatively easy lead. Now late into her 4YO year, I’m hoping this one has improved a bit from her 3YO year and is ready to take another step forward. She’s certainly capable.

Off the turf today unfortunately

Ah shoot. Thanks.

Thanks. Maybe off the turf will be good and I’ll find another longshot.

Point Of Entry is the greatest heavy metal album you’ve never heard in your life.
Point of Entry passed a huge percentage of the hosses he faced. He was awesome

Let’s go with:

Best bet: Race 5 - #6 Constitutionalrage (10/1ML). A horse sired by Constitution out of a Tiznow mare and trained by Barclay Tagg. None of the other horses look like anything special and I like the pedigree and works here.

Longshot: Race 2 - #6 My First Grammy (8/1 ML). Key Stat: Mejia and Benji have won 100% of their starts together since August 29th. But really, this horse is talented enough that he was placed into the Florida Derby as a maiden. While he’s no Bodexpress, he’ll appreciate the class relief here. And while the drop in class is massive, this one was purchased for only $57,000 two years ago. That’s less suspicious to me than the class drop for the favorite Long Term Thinking or the $20,000 tag for Advance Notice, purchased for $350,000 two years ago. Maybe none of this means anything, but the figures alone at least put him in contention.

One of my good friends growing up liked Judas Priest but I never got into them. I’m 34 though so I think his dad got him into them and they definitely weren’t one of my dad’s favorites.

Friday September 4.

I’m really trying to focus on the Derby card so I haven’t looked at these much. So take them with a grain of salt.

Best bet: Race 9 - #13 Uncle George (4/1 ML).
Longshot: Race 10 - #6 Playtone (15/1 ML).

Got caught up with work the last couple days.

Best Bet Race 7 #8 Thin White Duke - Think the 6.5 should be perfect.

Best Value Race 10 #6 Playtone - Last was so bad but I have to give one more chance. Interesting on the stretch out with Joel but admittedly just a stab/chase.

I was going to do a little write up on Churchill but honestly the card seems perfectly straight forward to me. Don’t plan on getting too involved until tomorrow. Will try to post some thoughts in the morning.

Good luck everyone.

Best bets: $68.00 wagered. $30.30 returned.
Longshots: $68.00 wagered. $98.70returned.
Total: $136.00 wagered. $129.00 returned.

Best bet: Race 9 - #7 Mystic Guide (4/1 ML). If they both run, the two Pletcher horses are going to be heavy favorites so I'm looking elsewhere for a little value. I've liked Mystic Guide for a while now and think the addition of blinkers here could help him be more forwardly placed, which should help him going 9 furlongs here.

Longshot: Race 5 - #8 Officiating (10/1 ML). A horrible start to last race but he finished impressively. This could be a competitive group but this one is full of run.