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-   -   2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=65685)

richard burch 03-07-2019 09:16 PM

I'm liking this horse a lot....

Harvey Wallbanger



....and not for the great name. He looks like a fighter, closed to win at GSP, loves to go long, a win and a second at Churchill....lots to like

Alabama Stakes 03-07-2019 09:26 PM

Filled out nicely. He passes hosses like they’re standing still.

Kasept 03-17-2019 05:43 AM

Jay Privman, Oaklawn Park , 2019-03-16 - DRF Live Posted : Mar 16, 2019, 7:42 PM

Trainer Bob Baffert hoped for two wins rather than two seconds in divisions of the Rebel on Saturday at Oaklawn, but said he was happy with the way his colts Game Winner and Improbable performed and was "thankful" he had a place to go with them after the San Felipe was cancelled last week at Santa Anita.

"I'm just thankful I got to run them," he said in a phone interview Saturday. "They ran their races. They just got beat. Both ran big races off a layoff."

Baffert said both would return to Santa Anita to train. Game Winner will stay home for the Santa Anita Derby on April 6, and Improbable will go back to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby on April 13, he said.

Kasept 03-17-2019 06:10 AM

3/23 (FG): LA DERBY ~ 100-40-20-10

1) Roiland (Amoss/Graham) 12-1
2) Lemniscate (McPeek/B. Hernandez) 15-1
3) Limonite (Asmussen/J. Ortiz) 20-1
4) Sueno (Desormeaux/Lanerie) 8-1
5) By My Standards (Calhoun/G. Saez) 12-1
6) War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) 6-5
7) Mr. Money (Calhoun/Beschizza) 20-1
8) Country House (Mott/Saez) 9-2
9) Bankit (Asmussen/I. Ortiz) 20-1
10) Spinoff (Pletcher/Velazquez) 8-1
11) Hog Creek Hustle (Foley/Mena) 12-1

richard burch 03-18-2019 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1123132)
Filled out nicely. He passes hosses like they’re standing still.

He's not scared to come up the rail either. I like that.:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFp2Uz09KVs

Kasept 03-20-2019 05:49 AM

UAE DERBY (100-40-20-10)

PLUS QUE PARFAIT (USA) Brendan Walsh
DIVINE IMAGE (USA) Charlie Appleby
DESERT ENCOUNTER (IRE) David Simcock
DERMA LOUVRE (JPN) Hirofumi Toda
VAN BEETHOVEN (CAN) Aidan O'Brien
ESTIHDAAF (USA) Saeed bin Suroor
WALKING THUNDER (USA) Ahmad bin Harmash
GOLDEN JAGUAR (USA) Ahmad bin Harmash
GRAY MAGICIAN (USA) Peter Miller
JAHBATH (GB) William Haggas
STUBBINS (USA) Doug O'Neill
SWIFT ROSE (IRE) Saeed bin Suroor
SUPERIOR (USA) Ahmad bin Harmash
GRECKO (ARG) Kenneth McPeek
MANGUZI (FR) Ali Rashid Al Rayhi

Kasept 03-20-2019 05:57 AM

SUNLAND DERBY (50-20-10-5)

1. Mucho Gusto (Joseph Talamo/Bob Baffert) 8-5
2. Anothertwistafate (Juan J. Hernandez/Blaine D. Wright) 3-1
3. Hustle Up (Shane Laviolette/Todd W. Fincher) 5-1
4. Wicked Indeed (Luis Contreras/ Steven M. Asmussen) 6-1
5. Cutting Humor (John R. Velazquez/Todd A. Pletcher) 8-1
6. Walker Stalker (Alejandro Medellin/Jose R. Gonzalez, Jr.) 15-1
7. Pasamonte Man (Ken S. Tohill/Joel H. Marr) 20-1
8. Collusionist (Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr./O. A. Martinez, Jr.) 25-1
9. Diamond Blitz (Kent J. Desormeaux/J. Keith Desormeaux) 15-1
10. Eye Cloud (Isaias D. Enriquez/Tracy A. Norris) 30-1

Alabama Stakes 03-20-2019 04:17 PM

Sunland Daydream.
 
Looks like plenty of speed signed on in this one. The break will be important. The 2 faves have looked good. I’m hoping Joe Rockhead is correct on Mucho Gusto being distance limited. Anothertwistafate might put them all to sleep, but could also get the dream trip and take them when he’s ready on the turn. He is so visually impressive I will let him be the focus and get a couple to close in behind to fill out the minors.

Kasept 03-24-2019 07:22 PM

5/4 (CD): KENTUCKY DERBY ~ Through 3/24

1. By My Standards (Calhoun/G. Saez) 100
2. War of Will (Casse/Gallalione) 60 ~ Questionable
3. Code of Honor (McGaughey/Velazquez) 54
4. Long Range Toddy (Asmussen/Court) 53.5
5. Tacitus (Mott/J. Ortiz) 50
6. Haikal (McLaughlin/Maragh) 50
7. Cutting Humor (Pletcher/Velazquez) 50
8. Game Winner (Baffert/Rosario) 45
9. Spinoff (Pletcher/Velazquez) 40
10. Omaha Beach (Mandella/Smith) 37.5
11. Mind Control (Sacco/Velazquez) 30
12. Country House (Mott/L. Saez) 30
13. Anothertwistofate (Wright/Hernandez) 30
14. Sueno (Desormeaux/C. Lanerie) 28
15. Improbable (Baffert/Van Dyke) 25
--- Mucho Gusto (Baffert) 24
16. Bourbon War (Hennig) 21
17. Somelikeithotbrown (Maker) 20
18. Outshine (Pletcher) 20
19. Euro slot
20. Japan slot

Kasept 03-24-2019 08:55 PM

4/6 (AQU): WOOD MEMORIAL ~ 100-40-20-10

Tax (Gargan)
Haikal (McLaughlin)
Mind Control (Sacco) ~ Bay Shore*
Joevia (Sacco)
Tacitus (Mott)
Durkin’s Call (Mott)
Final Jeopardy (Ja. Servis)
Grumps Little Tots (Ja. Servis)
Outshine (Pletcher)
Alwaysmining (Rubley)
Instagrand (Hollendorfer)

casp0555 03-25-2019 09:17 AM

Horse Racing Nation stating Gunmetal Gray is off the trail due to a training injury, I did not see anything in Bloodhorse though??

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...erby_trail_123

Kasept 03-25-2019 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casp0555 (Post 1123882)
Horse Racing Nation stating Gunmetal Gray is off the trail due to a training injury, I did not see anything in Bloodhorse though??

I guess it's hard for other outlets to acknowledge the origin of information. First reported by DRF team on site and written up by Steve Anderson: https://www.drf.com/news/derby-prosp...dylar-fracture

casp0555 03-25-2019 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1123883)
I guess it's hard for other outlets to acknowledge the origin of information. First reported by DRF team on site and written up by Steve Anderson: https://www.drf.com/news/derby-prosp...dylar-fracture

thanks Steve...I found the DRF after I posted :o I read the surgery went well too, good news for sure

Kasept 03-27-2019 03:22 AM

3/30 (MEY): UAE DERBY ~ 100-40-20-10

1. WALKING THUNDER (USA) Ahmad bin Harmash
2. JAHBATH (GB) William Haggas
3. GOLDEN JAGUAR (USA) Ahmad bin Harmash
4. PLUS QUE PARFAIT (USA) Brendan Walsh
5. DERMA LOUVRE (JPN) Hirofumi Toda
6. DIVINE IMAGE (USA) Charlie Appleby
7. SUPERIOR (USA) Ahmad bin Harmash
8. GRAY MAGICIAN (USA) Peter Miller
9. RAZEENA (CAN) Doug Watson
10. AL HAYETTE (USA) Ismail Mohammed
11. VAN BEETHOVEN (CAN) Aidan O'Brien
12. STUBBINS (USA) Doug O'Neill
13. SWIFT ROSE (IRE) Saeed bin Suroor
14. MANGUZI (FR) Ali Rashid Al Rayhi

Kasept 03-30-2019 02:14 AM

Sacco makes smart one turn call with Mind Control who will bypass Wood for Bay Shore/Woody Stephens route..

Kasept 03-31-2019 08:15 PM

Saturday's Current Probables/Possibles
 
4/6 (AQU): WOOD MEMORIAL ~ 100-40-20-10

Tax (Gargan)
Haikal (McLaughlin)
Joevia (Sacco)
Tacitus (Mott)
Final Jeopardy (Ja. Servis)
Grumps Little Tots (Ja. Servis)
Outshine (Pletcher)
Overdeliver (Pletcher)
Not That Brady (Rodriguez)


4/6 (KEE): BLUE GRASS ~ 100-40-20-10

Win Win Win (Trombetta)
Signalman (McPeek)
Admire (Romans)
Mr. Ankeny (Romans)
Chase the Ghost (Stewart)
Chess Chief (Stewart)
Lucky Lee (John Servis)
Sir Winston (Casse)
Hoffa's Union (Casse)
Dream Maker (Casse)
Market King (Lukas)
Somelikeithotbrown (Maker)
Vekoma (Weaver)
So Alive (Pletcher)

Soldado (Pletcher)
Galilean (Hollendorfer)
Our Braintrust (Casse)



4/6 (SA): SANTA ANITA DERBY ~ 100-40-20-10

Game Winner (Baffert)
Roadster (Baffert)
Nolo Contesto (Sadler)
Extra Hope (Mandella)
Synthesis (Papaprodromou)
Instagrand (Hollendorfer/Prat)

Sparky Ville (Bonde)

RHT2004 03-31-2019 09:11 PM

Tacitus in a gallop.
Roadster.
And no clue at Keeneland. Really no one.

moses 03-31-2019 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1124137)
4/6 (KEE): BLUE GRASS ~ 100-40-20-10

Soldado (Pletcher)
Country House (Mott)
Galilean (Hollendorfer)
Our Braintrust (Casse)

Wow...Mott is considering bringing Country House back after two weeks to run him in the Blue Grass?

Kasept 04-01-2019 03:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1124143)
Wow...Mott is considering bringing Country House back after two weeks to run him in the Blue Grass?

AR Derby more likely.

moses 04-01-2019 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1124154)
AR Derby more likely.

Makes sense. Thanks Steve. I thought they might try the Lexington even though it’s fewer points since that field should be smaller and less talented than the Arkansas Derby but obviously they know better than I do.

Alabama Stakes 04-01-2019 10:37 AM

Signalman will be primed for a big effort to win the Bluegrass.

RHT2004 04-01-2019 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1124167)
Signalman will be primed for a big effort to win the Bluegrass.

Just like Harvey?

knickslions2 04-01-2019 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1124174)
Just like Harvey?

You're quite good at bashing everyone else's picks. This was your post prior to race

14th..... 1 LOCK CINCH CANT BE DEFEATED

RHT2004 04-01-2019 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1124175)
You're quite good at bashing everyone else's picks. This was your post prior to race

14th..... 1 LOCK CINCH CANT BE DEFEATED

I also post winners weekly. I had 3 or 4 winners posted Saturday including a single beating a 4-5 shot and for me it was a bad day.

RHT2004 04-01-2019 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1124137)
4/6 (AQU): WOOD MEMORIAL ~ 100-40-20-10

Tax (Gargan)
Haikal (McLaughlin)
Joevia (Sacco)
Tacitus (Mott)
Final Jeopardy (Ja. Servis)
Grumps Little Tots (Ja. Servis)
Outshine (Pletcher)
Overdeliver (Pletcher)
Not That Brady (Rodriguez)

Dessman (Baffert)
Much Better (Baffert)


Watching some replays, Dressman would be intriguing in the Wood. Watch his trip at Oaklawn on Rebel day.

moses 04-01-2019 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1124178)
Watching some replays, Dressman would be intriguing in the Wood. Watch his trip at Oaklawn on Rebel day.

I’m trying to recall - didn’t he have a pretty bad start to that race?

Alabama Stakes 04-01-2019 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1124174)
Just like Harvey?

He had no chance to close from last into that pace. The kid even pitched him about 8 wide on the turn for good measure. He doesn’t owe me any money after the Holy Bull. I’m not giving up on him because of that race.
Your hoss should have been sent along after breaking well. To give that hoss the lead without making him work even a little is egregious. At 9 furlongs at Gulfstream it is a no brainer .

RolloTomasi 04-01-2019 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1124178)
Watching some replays, Dressman would be intriguing in the Wood. Watch his trip at Oaklawn on Rebel day.

Mike Watchmaker pointed out that although the trip compromised Dessman, ultimately the race was slow; by a full second vs. all the subsequent stakes races and even 3/5 off a maiden special weight for 3yos run in the very next race.

If Dessman starts and runs well, perhaps he'll act as a barometer for the Oaklawn horses vs. the NY crop.

moses 04-01-2019 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1124167)
Signalman will be primed for a big effort to win the Bluegrass.

Have you seen this yet? Briefly - it has Signalman ranked as the #3 horse in the Derby top 12 and says he expects Signalman to be the favorite in the Blue Grass.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com.../tdn190402.pdf

Alabama Stakes 04-01-2019 08:42 PM

I’d be surprised if he’s favored, but then I knocked Harvey down to 8-1. I watched a work with him and Harvey in company going 5/8 and he handled him easily without trying and looked twice as big as Harvey. When Harvey worked back in 47 flat, it made me think that work was even more impressive. He ran well in BreedersCup juvenile when he was third by a pole. He might be a guy who can win the Belmont. His maiden win at Saratoga was equally impressive as Limonite looked like he would swallow him, but he fought back for the win.

richard burch 04-01-2019 09:01 PM

any news on the Japan and Euro entries?

19. Euro slot
20. Japan slot

richard burch 04-01-2019 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1124187)
He had no chance to close from last into that pace. The kid even pitched him about 8 wide on the turn for good measure. He doesn’t owe me any money after the Holy Bull. I’m not giving up on him because of that race.
Your hoss should have been sent along after breaking well. To give that hoss the lead without making him work even a little is egregious. At 9 furlongs at Gulfstream it is a no brainer .


Me too!

Go Harvey!

blackthroatedwind 04-01-2019 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1124199)
Have you seen this yet? Briefly - it has Signalman ranked as the #3 horse in the Derby top 12 and says he expects Signalman to be the favorite in the Blue Grass.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com.../tdn190402.pdf

That's a pretty bad opinion. I realize the Blue Grass is a hodgepodge of "who's that" but Signalman is not much horse.

Alabama Stakes 04-01-2019 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1124181)
I’m trying to recall - didn’t he have a pretty bad start to that race?

Got left , raced wide, poorly ridden, could have won if the kid angled out turning for home to give his mount some room to roll on by. He was already wide, why not shift out ?

Kasept 04-02-2019 04:25 AM

Espinoza still heading to Aqueduct Saturday, but only for Much Better in Bay Shore; Dessman to pass Wood, per Baffert
Jay Privman, Aqueduct / Apr 1, 2019, 11:33 PM

Victor Espinoza will still travel to New York on Saturday to ride Much Better for trainer Bob Baffert in the seven-furlong Bay Shore at Aqueduct, but Dessman -- who had been considered for the Wood Memorial -- will not travel for that race, in which Espinoza would have ridden him, Baffert informed Monday night.

Baffert said that upon evaluating Dessman's workout earlier Monday at Santa Anita, it was not satisfactory to put him in a race like the Wood. Dessman most recently was second in an allowance race at Oaklawn on Rebel day, so the Wood would have been his second race in three weeks, both involving traveling.

Baffert said he was "not sure" where Dessman would run next.

moses 04-02-2019 06:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1124211)
That's a pretty bad opinion. I realize the Blue Grass is a hodgepodge of "who's that" but Signalman is not much horse.

I don’t agree with the writer’s opinion at all - but I know Alabama has been high on Signalman so figured I’d share it.

I think the Blue Grass will be won by one of these horses:

Vekoma
Dream Maker
So Alive

And to a lesser extent:

Hoffa’s Union

moses 04-03-2019 12:07 PM

Hoffa’s Union out of the Blue Grass and into the Wood?

blackthroatedwind 04-03-2019 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1124273)
Hoffa’s Union out of the Blue Grass and into the Wood?

He can't get into any race that is oversubscribed.

Kasept 04-03-2019 02:05 PM

BLUE GRASS

1 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN (Gaffalione/Maker) 10-1
2 VEKOMA (Castellano/Weaver) 9-5
3 SIGNALMAN (B. Hernandez/McPeek) 8-1
4 MARKET KING (Court/Lukas) 20-1
5 CHESS CHIEF (Lopez/Stewart) 30-1
6 DREAM MAKER (Geroux/Casse) 10-1
7 ADMIRE (Albarado/Romans) 15-1
8 WIN WIN WIN (I. Ortiz, Jr./Trombetta) 7-2
9 SIR WINSTON (Leparoux/Casse) 15-1
10 LUCKY LEE (Landeros/Jo. Servis) 15-1
11 SO ALIVE (Saez/Pletcher) 15-1
12 PARSIMONY (Gutierrez/O'Neill) 20-1
13 MOONSTER (McKee/Romans) 30-1
14 AQUADINI (Lanerie/Stewart) 30-1

Kasept 04-03-2019 02:42 PM

WOOD (11 entered; Draw to come) ~ 100-40-20-10

1 Tax (Alvarado/Gargan)
2 Tacitus (J. Ortiz/Mott)
3 Hoffa's Union (Davis/Casse)
4 Haikal (Maragh/KMc)
5 Final Jeopardy (Franco/Ja Servis)
6 Overdeliver (Carmouche/Pletcher)
7 Not That Brady (R. Gutierrez/Rodriguez)
8 Grumps Little Tots (Lezcano/Ja. Servis)
9 Math Wizard (Cancel/Joseph)
10 Outshine (J. Velazquez/Pltcher)
11 Joevia (Juarez/Sacco)


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