Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1095843)

I guess, I feel like she had the dream trip while the 2 and 7 did not. If she is like 3/1 the Alabama could be a big underlay.

Wonder if Baffert thinks about skipping the Alabama...running in it actually only hurts the horses chances at winning the division. Right now she has a 1/16 of a pole lead.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1095838)

It's amazing that a horse racing observer could look at that ride and criticize it. Absolutely amazing.

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1095853)

Hey, I'm always willing to listen and maybe learn something. But do you think Baffert is happy with the ride if his horse loses by a head?

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1095847)

l guess im being subjective assuming Elate will love the 10f. I cant see her at 3-1 though. Salty is a massive trip trap horse. AT is probably coming even though the point of her skipping makes sense. Lockdown and Unchained Melody are also pointing to it.

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1095853)

Hey, I'm always willing to listen and maybe learn something. But do you think Baffert is happy with the ride if his horse loses by a head?

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1095847)

l guess im being subjective assuming Elate will love the 10f. I cant see her at 3-1 though. Salty is a massive trip trap horse. AT is probably coming even though the point of her skipping makes sense. Lockdown and Unchained Melody are also pointing to it.

Originally Posted by parsixfarms (Post 1095871)

I realize that Unchained Melody ran well in the Mother Goose, but isn't Holy Helena the likely favorite for the Alabama if Abel Tasman doesn't come back for the race (and might be the horse to beat even if she does come)?

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1095861)

Yes. His chief competition on paper was eliminated at the break, so he was aggressive into a soft middle split with the best horse. Would you have preferred he dragged Abel Tasman out of the race irrespective of the break/pace and potentially gotten boxed in as the field compressed and Salty went around him nearing the stretch? I see enough of those rides daily in New York to know they almost never work out. And that's not even getting to the race-riding he did in the final furlong, which was just enough to win but not enough to get DQ'ed. To me, Smith's move seems aberrant because there is so little aggressive riding here, when it actually was smart and something to be emulated. Same thing with Bravo's ride on Muqtaser on opening day. It should be a no-brainer to take control when they're going :52 to the half, but so few riders have the balls to do that, which made it look like a Hall of Fame ride in comparison.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1095888)

He rather could have simply settled in a position similar to fellow closer Daddys Lil Darling, or simply followed his tactics in the Acorn, when he gradually moved Abel Tasman in a position to pounce and blow the race open on the turn. We know she can make up ground quickly.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1095900)

He got extremely lucky in the Acorn when the seas parted for him along the inside. There was no guarantee that would happen again. Instead, he saw Salty miss the break, sensed the slowing pace and took the bull by the horns with the best horse. I wish more riders in New York would be that aggressive.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1095900)

He got extremely lucky in the Acorn when the seas parted for him along the inside. There was no guarantee that would happen again. Instead, he saw Salty miss the break, sensed the slowing pace and took the bull by the horns with the best horse. I wish more riders in New York would be that aggressive.

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1095904)

I like the move too as the 5 was getting pretty comfy up there and was looking at 50 half which could have made that horse tough to catch. Was a great gutsy ride on the best horse.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1095906)

If Summer Luck, a non-winners 1x horse, was a threat to Mike Smith, then it must have been because she was a daughter of Lookin At Lucky (who sired Arrogate-killer Accelerate).

In fact, Smith was probably still reeling from that race and panicked that the same thing would happen to Abel Tasman unless he shook her up early. Almost cost him.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1095905)

My point is Smith didn't need to be aggressive. The filly was not "extremely lucky" to win the Acorn. Smith didn't need for a dream run on the rail for the horse to win that race. Abel Tasman has proved she can win pretty much from anywhere against these sorts of rivals.

All Smith did was tax the filly, nearly got her beat, and almost got her DQ'd. If he wanted to take it to them, he should have done so from the outset, not 3 furlongs into the race with 8 lengths to make up.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1095909)

I didn't say the filly was extremely lucky, I said Smith was lucky that there was a hole at the rail. If he gets stopped there, he loses. Period.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1095911)

It was hardly a risk in the Acorn. Again, the hole was there. If it wasn't, Smith would have simply split horses (it was a 6-horse field) and been able to unleash her turn of foot at the top of the stretch. She wouldn't have got the jump on Salty perhaps, but considering she's handle that rival 3 times now, it probably didn't matter.

As for Salty missing the break in the CCA Oaks, wasn't that pretty much the death knell for her race? Note her wide sweep and wilt in the stretch. How Smith moving Abel Tasman way too early somehow helped exploit the fact that Salty missed the break is beyond me. The damage had already been done. He should have won the race by open lengths, not survived an inquiry.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1095933)

She's beaten Salty three times with much better trips each time. You left that part out.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1095945)

Aside from not mentioning the KY Oaks outright, not really. We already discussed that Salty was left at the gate and that Abel Tasman was "extremely lucky" to have a rail run in the Acorn. I figured it was taken for granted. Must I reiterate these facts ad infinitum?

By the way, how many more "better trips" will Abel Tasman need to have for it to become evident that perhaps Abel Tasman's superior push-button running style is simply an outright advantage over Salty's slow-to-get-in-gear, wide closing style?


Alongside Salty? What race were you watching? Salty got left at the start (I guess I do have to reiterate the basic facts). Abel Tasman had nearly 5 lengths on Salty early...despite breaking flat-footed herself.


Abel Tasman was odds-on, the race was hers for the taking before they loaded in the gate...even more so once Salty lept in the air. Why should any of this compel Mike Smith to change the horse's running style in the middle of the race?

Maybe it would have been a plausible strategy to take the lead straight from the gate, but the mid-race move was just asking for trouble--as evidenced by the stretch run.


I didn't realize I was obligated to pick apart every last thing you posted. I guess that would cut down on the number of posts I need to submit.

Not sure why you are passing the second quarter off as 25 seconds. Once again, Abel Tasman was nearly 8 lengths out of it the opening quarter (when 3 horses did want the lead). How fast did she have to run to make the lead from there? :23 and change?

I guess if we are willing to concede that Abel Tasman is capable of a sustained 7 furlong move we can agree that Smith did the right thing here, but as it turns out Smith was all out to hold off a filly with but a $50K minor stakes to her credit...and had to resort to some questionable tactics to do it.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1095950)

You're in favor of riders reserving their horses for the final 1/4 no matter the circumstances.

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1095947)

We can talk about this rider should have done this or that, its in the past

the better question is how good is this filly? Cause that was impressive.

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1095964)

I dont think she's like super special. She is clearly the leader of the division. IMO shes not as good as Rachel, or Close Hatches as 3yr olds. She's more like Songbird.

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1095971)

Has everyone forgotten about Unique Bella?

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1095972)

Nope. But her 3 major G1s have her clearly ahead right now. Its not even really a question.

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1095978)

Yes, but she benefited greatly with ub on the sideline.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1095900)

He got extremely lucky in the Acorn when the seas parted for him along the inside. There was no guarantee that would happen again. Instead, he saw Salty miss the break, sensed the slowing pace and took the bull by the horns with the best horse. I wish more riders in New York would be that aggressive.

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1095979)

Agree. But im sure you will agree UB has missed to many big races at this point. Unless she gets back and wins the Distaff.

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1095986)

I agree that AT is ahead at this point, but if nothing goes wrong for UB in her comeback, it's pretty much a given that she will win that distaff.

UB is MUCH MUCH better of a filly. As much as I agree with Rollo's recent points, I have to strongly disagree on when those two raced against each other. Smith toyed with AT. It wasn't even debatable. In fact, I think Smith rode AT the other day and thought he was on UB.

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1095987)

Their goal this season with UB is the BC Fm sprint

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1095988)

Wow. That seems dumber than any jj abrams movie. I wonder why.

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1095989)

I think they are looking at one comeback race at SA and then the BC...pretty tough to get ready for a race like the distaff off that schedule.

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1095998)

I think Charlie forgot about Songbird in the distaff

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1095999)

I thought she was going in the Classic?

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1095989)

I think they are looking at one comeback race at SA and then the BC...pretty tough to get ready for a race like the distaff off that schedule.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1096002)

Unique Bella is on borrowed time from what can be gathered from the PPs and the reports on the nature of her injury. She's will have had two separate ~6-month layoffs since starting her career barely a year ago--its quite possible both layoffs were for the same reason. Horses with shin injuries severe enough to send them to the sidelines rarely make more than a handful of starts before going right back to the bench. See the careers of Commentator and Dixie Dot Com as examples.

Given that her connections are already thinking Breeder's Cup (see how that worked out for Animal Kingdom in 2011) before she's even breezed doesn't instill confidence that her career will be characterized by longevity.

The good news is that nowadays one or two starts is all that it takes to reach "all-timer" status.

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1096004)

Commentator all ❤. Everything Songbird fans want her to be.

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1096005)

Maybe Songbird and arrogate can race together since they both looked so strong in their last race.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1096002)

Unique Bella is on borrowed time from what can be gathered from the PPs and the reports on the nature of her injury. She's will have had two separate ~6-month layoffs since starting her career barely a year ago--its quite possible both layoffs were for the same reason. Horses with shin injuries severe enough to send them to the sidelines rarely make more than a handful of starts before going right back to the bench. See the careers of Commentator and Dixie Dot Com as examples.

Given that her connections are already thinking Breeder's Cup (see how that worked out for Animal Kingdom in 2011) before she's even breezed doesn't instill confidence that her career will be characterized by longevity.

The good news is that nowadays one or two starts is all that it takes to reach "all-timer" status.

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1096006)

I expect stronger from you. Arrogate is an all time great regardless of what he does moving forward. He has literally done enough.