Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 1041731)

So Espinoza erred by using his horse's best weapon, his speed? Not sure I'm understanding this point at all.

American Pharoah was the lone speed on paper, he got the lead, went a moderate half-mile, was engaged and was beaten. He ran a fine race, one that was on par with the rest that he had run.

Originally Posted by JimmyEllis (Post 1041735)

American Pharoah was the lone speed on paper, he got the lead, went a moderate half-mile, was engaged and was beaten. He ran a fine race, one that was on par with the rest that he had run.[/QUOTE
When you enter the stretch dueling with an inferior horse you have two choices:
Fixate on a horse that can't beat you and ask your horse so you can put the other horse away as early as possible

Or

Realize that you can get that one any time you want and that doing it too early allows other horses into the race and your horse might not have anything left.

Pat Day understood this. JV does as well. Espinosa doesn't.

Originally Posted by JimmyEllis (Post 1041735)

When you enter the stretch dueling with an inferior horse you have two choices:
Fixate on a horse that can't beat you and ask your horse so you can put the other horse away as early as possible

Or

Realize that you can get that one any time you want and that doing it too early allows other horses into the race and your horse might not have anything left.

Pat Day understood this. JV does as well. Espinosa doesn't.

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 1041738)

I'm sorry, I disagree. I just don't think it was his day. When I saw the opening half go in 48 and change, I thought he was just gonna jog home. It's just not as simple as say a drag race, where a corvette is going to spot a Altima 5 lengths in the stretch and run him down when he wants every time. Even though AP is the better horse, they aren't machines. Victor knew his horse was in trouble, he put Frosted away when he was supposed to, unfortunately he just wasn't good enough on this day to hold off Keen Ice.

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk (Post 1041719)

I thought it funny that right after the race Zayat was, "Maybe we should retire him. I think we should retire him," and the next day Baffert was just, "Yeah, we'll train him up to the Classic."

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 1041720)

Not sure why people are killing Lezcano, I thought he gave Frosted a terrific ride. If he doesn't go, everyone is bitching and moaning how they all let AP waltz on the front end. He never got in front of AP in the past with the tactics that were used, so why not switch it up?

As far as Victor goes, I thought I heard him say in an interview that he knew at the half pole that he didn't have the horse that he was use to having. That being said, he kept him engaged and AP deserves some credit for digging in and putting Frosted away.

Then there is Keen Ice, who is getting zero credit. Sure Javy let Lezcano and Frosted do all the dirty work, but I do think this horse is improving. I honestly didn't expect him to win, but he was on my pick 4 ticket (that was dead after the first leg), just cause he was the only horse that I remember on Haskell day that seemed to make up any type of ground on the Monmouth freeway (regardless of AP being geared down at the end), plus the added panel.

I just don't get all the complaining. Zayad gave us what we wanted and he got beat. That's what makes this game so great. Let's just hope they decide to run him in the Breeders Cup, that would be fun.

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk (Post 1041744)

I thought Lezcano did a good job, too. As thrilling as finally getting to see a TC happen was, I puzzled over why nobody tried to go with AP in the Belmont, since it gets won on the lead pretty often. What else was Lezcano going to do here? It's clear if you leave AP alone on the lead, he wins.

Doug posted years ago about horses dueling in discussing one of Rachel Alexandra's losses, and I remember he said even if the pace doesn't seem fast, a duel takes a lot out of a horse, just from the nature of how horses interact. AP may have been tired going into the race, or Lezcano's ride on Frosted may have thrown AP out of his comfort zone and that might have taken the starch out of him. Either way, between this and Kentucky Derby being his hardest races, I think it shows that under the right conditions, he's vulnerable at 1&1/4, and that makes for a more interesting BCC. You're right; it'll be fun if he runs in it.

Originally Posted by DonGuido (Post 1041743)

Mr Zayat let his disappointment and emotions do the talking. I'm sure he was saddened by the outcome. Now they have a clearer head to rest him for a couple weeks and train up to the Classic sound perfect. I also hope they get him there a week ahead of time, two I'd prefer. I never like this shipping on Wed and running on Sat especially on a plane from that distance.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 1041733)

When did it become the Graveyard of Champions? It was always "Graveyard of Favorites."

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 1041738)

I'm sorry, I disagree. I just don't think it was his day. When I saw the opening half go in 48 and change, I thought he was just gonna jog home. It's just not as simple as say a drag race, where a corvette is going to spot a Altima 5 lengths in the stretch and run him down when he wants every time. Even though AP is the better horse, they aren't machines. Victor knew his horse was in trouble, he put Frosted away when he was supposed to, unfortunately he just wasn't good enough on this day to hold off Keen Ice.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1041581)

It would be interesting to know what exactly was Lezcano's game plan with Frosted. Was he simply targeting American Pharoah or was he trying to make the lead (perhaps thinking AP would sit just off the frontrunner ala the AK Derby, KY Derby, and Haskell)?

From a running style standpoint, Frosted is fairly versatile. He showed solid early speed in Florida and in his maiden breaker at 2. In the Wood, he seemed rejuvenated with an off-the-pace style (although I believe he also had corrective throat surgery at the same time). In the Derby, he came from well out of it and closed stoutly, yet ultimately made no impression on the top two home. In the Belmont, he stalked and let American Pharoah dictate the running, then made a strong move at him (while having to steady slightly on the far turn) in the stretch, but could not get even within a length of him. So unless his connections were resigned to running for second money, sending him to the lead made a lot of sense. It was the only tool they had yet to use to reverse form on AP.

Of course, it still didn't work. But what it did do was force Espinoza to ride the race as if it were 9f and not 10f. As Baffert himself said, AP won the Kentucky Derby "on guts" and "got away with it". Many people suggested, despite winning the Derby, that AP had come back down to earth. The rest of the Triple Crown, which was practically scripted for AP's ascension (a torrential downpour minutes before the Preakness, a paceless Belmont) brushed away all those nagging concerns about AP and distance limitations. The facile manner of the subsequent Haskell further solidified the mantle of invincibility bestowed on this horse. But in the end, like many a brilliant racehorse, AP will always be vulnerable at the classic distances, especially when there is an honest pace scenario.

Originally Posted by DonGuido (Post 1041740)

Agree 150% but I still think Victor does need to take some of the blame.

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1041809)

I disagree with this. Blame the draw. I think if you reverse AP and Frosted's post positions AP wins and Frosted finishes like 5th. I think CJ also mentioned this.

Originally Posted by DonGuido (Post 1041577)

Problem? AP is not "normal". Wrong on both accounts but no biggie.

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 1041813)

Not sure I understand this. Are you saying the 2 post would have compromised Frosted's ability to get near the lead? Cause you have to think that Victor was going to the lead no matter what post he was breaking from.

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1041809)

I disagree with this. Blame the draw. I think if you reverse AP and Frosted's post positions AP wins and Frosted finishes like 5th. I think CJ also mentioned this.

Originally Posted by DonGuido (Post 1041852)

Actually if AP was really the AP we knew before he could have drawn anything and won. I still have to give Victor some of the blame for panicking and urging AP too prematurely when Frosted eye balled him. Victor's thinking "wow, we're getting pressed not real, what do I do, never seen this" panic sets in and he helps get AP out of his realm. All that said it wouldn't have mattered, or he just was not the AP we all know well that day.

Let's get over it and move on or you can all continue this futile analysis for an other week and prove nothing. Go for it or not.

Originally Posted by DonGuido (Post 1041852)

Actually if AP was really the AP we knew before he could have drawn anything and won. I still have to give Victor some of the blame for panicking and urging AP too prematurely when Frosted eye balled him. Victor's thinking "wow, we're getting pressed not real, what do I do, never seen this" panic sets in and he helps get AP out of his realm. All that said it wouldn't have mattered, or he just was not the AP we all know well that day.

Let's get over it and move on or you can all continue this futile analysis for an other week and prove nothing. Go for it or not.

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1041856)

I think you need to get over it. You type a lot of garbage around here. AP ran pretty much the same race he always runs, w/ the exception of the giant performance @Monmouth. He is not a super horse. He is a very good 3yr old. He won the triple crown and that cant ever be taken away from him. But Frosted engaged him early and he lost. I do believe there were different circumstances that would have led to an AP victory, but I don't believe he is some super horse, and you continue to post that all over this place. The speed figures on beyer and timeform are in line w/ almost every race he has run. How can you say it wasn't AP or he had a bad day. That's simply not true, at all. But you continue to spew drivel. You cant be objective about the horse. At least admit it, and maybe try to move on.

Originally Posted by DonGuido (Post 1041965)

Get over the fact that I among many are AP fans and aren't afraid to admit he is a super horse and far above "very good" as you so ineptly put it. And I'll say it again he wasn't the real AP in the Travers or Keen Ice and the rest would have had another long range shot if his buttox as so many have before . . . oh and he did have a bad day and if that's spewing drivel . . . it's very good drivel so get over it.

Originally Posted by declansharbor (Post 1041966)

Guido, come on bud.

Now I know why Eugene Ponticorvo REALLY did himself in.

He was subjected too long to your horse racing blather.

Originally Posted by DonGuido (Post 1041965)

Get over the fact that I among many are AP fans and aren't afraid to admit he is a super horse and far above "very good" as you so ineptly put it. And I'll say it again he wasn't the real AP in the Travers or Keen Ice and the rest would have had another long range shot of his buttox as so many have before . . . oh and get over this . . . he did have a bad day and if that's spewing drivel . . . so be it but it's very good drivel.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1041969)

This is the very definition of a bad opinion.

Originally Posted by DonGuido (Post 1041970)

Deleted . . . based on mature judgment since it lowered me to the rest of you. Ga'night!!!

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1041969)

This is the very definition of a bad opinion.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1041984)

His opinion of Frank Lloyd Wright's contribution to modern architecture is equally stunning.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1041984)

His opinion of Frank Lloyd Wright's contribution to modern architecture is equally stunning.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 1041736)

When you enter the stretch of any horse race, it's time to go... playing mini-chess games with rivals around you is a sure way to get beat.

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 1041738)

I'm sorry, I disagree. I just don't think it was his day. When I saw the opening half go in 48 and change, I thought he was just gonna jog home. It's just not as simple as say a drag race, where a corvette is going to spot a Altima 5 lengths in the stretch and run him down when he wants every time. Even though AP is the better horse, they aren't machines. Victor knew his horse was in trouble, he put Frosted away when he was supposed to, unfortunately he just wasn't good enough on this day to hold off Keen Ice.