As opposed to the 0-15 historical statistic from modern times when horses are bred-trained and campaigned differently that he is up against.

So, if AP wins the TC, it'll probably be because 8 voters (out of 265 total votes) voted for AP instead of Texas Red. (Otherwise, AP would have had a much smaller chance to win.)

I wish I knew who to thank! :)

You can spin it that way but I wouldnt chose to too.

Yes none of them were 2 year old champs. Easy Goer was but never won either Derby or Preakness

You say AP is a lock

Well In My Opinion

The Bid was a lock
Sunday Silence was a lock
Smarty Jones was a lock
Big Brown was a lock
California Chrome was a lock


There is NO lock in Horse racing, especially in The Belmont, anything can and will happen, if AP wins, congrats, but BETTER horses have come to Belmont as a LOCK and went home empty handed..

I don't see as many of those, and even then, they sound more like horseplayers/handicappers than haters.

I admit.. I am all three :D

i don't understand why people get in such a twist when a horse ,in this case American Pharaoh, is proclaimed by many to be a lock. if you're a gambler and looking to play against then this works in your favor because it means he will be overbet. besides that, there's nothing you can do about it so you might as well try to take advantage of it.

DITTO...................lol:D

I guess I was thinking of these: (with emphasis added)

But maybe I'm over-reacting. Alabama Stakes does allow for "If he wins..."

I think everyone already knows this, but what the heck, I'll state the obvious.

When a horse is referred to as a lock, people usually will mean that the horse is a lock barring injury, really bad trips, etc...

As for your list of locks, in what universe was Sunday Silence a lock? Hell, I can make a case that Easy Goer really should have won the Preakness, as he turned his head sideways during the stretch and tried to savage Sunday Silence.

California Chrome got injured. See above on that.

The Bid and SJ both had really stupid rides.

Haters is a really inappropriate word for this sort of thing, but really, there really are more people on DT saying he can't or won't win than there are saying he's a lock.

And I don't really understand the problem people have with someone having an opinion that a horse is a lock.

How and why does that offend people's common sense? I don't get it.

On the flip side of your comment that the AP detractors sound more like handicappers than haters, what's that mean about people that think AP is a lock? Mindless fans?

Your posts on this topic could easily be construed as superior, smug and insulting.

There is no way in the world you thought SS and CC were locks.

Pat Day said that he turned Easy Goer's head to look at him; EG wasn't trying to bite SS.

http://articles.latimes.com/1989-06-...-laffit-pincay

(Really entertaining article about the 1989 Preakness and the East vs West riding styles. Note that Sunday Silence is talked about at the end like a lock for the Belmont. ;) )

I don't know I believe that, because if that's true, my already ultra low opinion on Pat Day as a jockey just plummeted to new impossibly low depths.

Who in their right mind would do that? If it's true, that's actually much worse than had it been EG turning his head to bite SS.

Also, I once saw a picture of that incident. It really did look like EG was trying to bite SS, but who knows.

I can't really figure out a reason why Pat Day would lie about him turning EG's head, but likewise, I can't figure out a reason why he would himself turn his head. EG had to know SS was inches from him.

I am not sure of the significance of being a 2YO champion since it is an award that is voted on. Also I do not think the horse knows he was 2YO champion.

Hoist The Flag would have won the TC if he did not breakdown in training that spring.

I totally agree, and the article even pointed that out, but I can't figure out why Pat Day would lie about it. I mean, it's not like it was going to cost Easy Goer any employment opportunities.

For what it's worth, Day criticized himself for that ride, too. As did McGaughey. ;)

I was speaking in more general terms (beyond message board, Twitter etc.), but funny... yeah, this dead week pre-Belmont brings the best out in all of us!

me personally no. but the press and many fans thought so. besides The Bid, I thought Smarty was the one, but hey **** happens. and if the racing god's did not allow The Bid or Smarty in, They will not allow AP in either, bring on the longshots!!!

Hey Travis, is this an example of what you mean by horseplayer/handicapper instead of 'hater'??

I'm sorry you feel that way.

I don't feel that way.

I don't get easily offended by people who have different opinions than mine (which are right!).

But there is room in your remarks for people to see them as a little condescending.

I know that was always how id understood, since the race ended...day thought if easy goer saw ss hed dig in. And that was always the story everyone told about silver charms belmont, that tg was too far outside, sc didnt see him...

That was a deliberate choice by McCarron. I tried to find McCarron's quote about Silver Charm's tenacity when eyeballed, and couldn't, but I found this from Touch Gold's trainer:

"Silver Charm is very dangerous. He might not be better than you, but if you eyeball him, he will just stick his neck out and beat you. Just like he did to Free House."

http://cjonline.com/stories/060897/c...l#.VWj5aOuNM-I

Yep, that's why...
The Preakness with Sunday and easy goer was one of the best races I have ever been lucky enough to see. Locked in stride, eyeball to eyeball. That finish was a thing of beauty.

so true, Sunday Silence was better than Easy Goer. Not by very much, but better, like Affirmed and Alydar. tough pill to swallow for the new york/east coast people.

He certainly had a better jockey.

Pat Day probably thought he only had Houston to contend with once he moved Easy Goer past Sunday Silence just before the far turn. Imagine his surprise when Sunday Silence was suddenly to his outside.

Discounting the fact that he is the most talented 3YO we have . . . here are two reasons that AP will win and essentially make him a lock:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWMv6VHaiBs

and this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y86kDFaJ2h4

You're one of the more committed trolls DT has seen in a while.

IC engaging the Alabama Bostard and Nick engaging whatever the fuk this other tard is...


C'mon guys. You're better than this. 3 weeks is a long time, but damn...:(

:wf:wf

To each his own . . . what more can I say, except thanks for the compliment I think. I'm not familiar with trolls except those that enjoy living under bridges in the medieval writing of Brothers Grimm and the like. Fill me in please on a troll in your defintion. :rolleyes:

go back to the hockey thread mookie

are all trolls committed ?

To what? Be specific.

Belmont
 

I'm not sure if AP will win the Belmont, but one thing that would be nice if he could run a speed figure worthy of a great horse. So far even though he has dominated his competition his speed figs have been ordinary. Figure wise I'm not sure if he is great or the 3yo class is sub par! Should be a great Belmont.

I think if one of TP horses or maybe frosted run huge he will not win. I still remember Alysheba and smarty jones who I thought were both mortal locks. This years race I am thinking the overall field is better than what smarty jones faced.

I thinking you might be right. I would like to see AP overcome some compromising situations before I declare him the next "Pegasus!"

if he beats these guys , i will be convinced too.