tweeted just a few minutes ago....

Mike Welsch ‏@DRFWelsch 3m3 minutes ago
Violette on Upstart. "He's got a temperature and we'll see where that leads us. If he's really sick then we're in trouble.

Mike Welsch ‏@DRFWelsch 3m3 minutes ago
"We can overcome missing the breeze today. He's really fit. If he has to stay in the stall for a week then that's a different story"

Ugh! I hope he recovers quickly.

I was thinking today that I don't recall a year of Derby Preps like this where the "chalk" won so much. In other years, you have horses on one circuit or another who are "chalk" and win, but on others you get some "new players". Nothing that won most of these Derby Preps paid much, if any. They were all bet, they were expected and they delivered. That's a good thing in a good way in that these are good horses who we expect good performances from and they deliver. A mark of a good horse. Time will tell, but for now it looks like a good crop.

The intriguing question is "How fast can they run ?" We've seen Dortmund win, American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, International Star, Mubtaahij (if he runs), Frosted and others. They won, but is there more if needed ? Was the prep their top or is their more, and how much more ?

We can look at their numbers, Beyer, Thorograph or whatever, but you have to wonder what else is there. We know what was there, but is that it ? Is there more or was that it ?

I just know some, or all of them maybe have something else. We just have to find or guess who. It's kind of a great situation this year. We have some good horses who are very consistent, as opposed to other years. It may be hard betting, but that's OK too.

I'm going to look at some prep film over and I'm not necessarily going to look for a "trip" but I'm going to look at the way the horse is running, his stride, his demeanor, determination and energy and look to see if this horse is showing me he may have something more. Another gear, another step, another level.

I'm going to be looking at those horses like Dortmund and American Pharoah and say "How really good are you ?"

Firing Line no longer the track record holder at SUN. NM-bred Proceed breaks it by .02 in the Sunland Park Handicap.

In fairness, that horse is not your typical Nm bred type of horse.

As of now my big three are Dortmund, American Pharoah and Upstart. Ill probably cover Frosted in a back up kind of way.

Everyone knows you are keying carpe diem with the Bafferts.

At this point Carpe Diem is slow.

Kentucky Oaks

1. Condo Commando (Rodriguez)
2. I’m a Chatterbox (Jones)
3. Stellar Wind (Sadler)
4. Birdatthewire (Romans)
5. Lovely Maria (Jones)
6. Include Betty (Proctor)
7. Oceanwave (Catalano)
8. Angela Renee (Pletcher)
9. Sarah Sis (Mason)
-- Maybellene -- Possible (Baffert)
10. Eskenformoney (Pletcher)
11. Puca (Mott)
12. Shook Up (Asmussen)
-- Luminance -- Possible (Baffert)
13. Forever Unbridled (Stewart)
14. Achiever’s Legacy (Hollendorfer)
-------------------------------------
15. Money'soncharlotte (Breen)
16. Danessa Deluxe (Navarro)
17. Callback (Baffert)
18. Wonder Gal (Gyarmati)

My key horse in Derby Day verticals and horizontals will be One Lucky Dane.

I keep hearing how deep this field is but honestly I dont see it. Feels like maybe 3-4 horses can win this thing.

Like him too. Hope he gets a better trip than his sire. It was over at the break for him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bd0rf8RSeo

Cheers,

O

Verticals, yes. Horizontals, no. IMO, Baffert could put 3 in the superfecta.

It would be nice to get 1 of either Keen Ice or Frammento to pump up the exotics. Just hopefully not both:D

Steve- You have Luminance as possible. Can you elaborate? Assume she goes in eight belles if not Oaks? Thanks.

War Story
 

May have a different trainer for the KY Derby? days coming?

Baffert, who had been on nearly every Monday for weeks, had hinted that he's not sold on either as Oaks runners. He reiterated again today that he'll monitor them leading up towards the race and make decisions based on how they're doing.

If you are referring to the fight in Indiana, no. Amoss will continue to battle Gorajec and the Commission.

At what point will we start to get some probables for the other Oaks/Derby stakes? Just wondering as I'm starting to research..

Thanks Steve for the PP's.

This is the nomination press release from the other day.. Will start to watch @DerbyMedia feed for daily notes that will feature the probable for the undercard stakes:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (Monday, April 13, 2015) – Longines Kentucky Oaks (Grade I) winner and champion 3-year-old filly Untapable, Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI) winner and Horse of the Year finalist Bayern and Belmont Stakes (GI) winners Palace Malice and Tonalist top a large and highly accomplished roster of racing stars nominated to 10 stakes races scheduled during the April 25-May 2 Kentucky Derby Week celebration at Churchill Downs Racetrack (“CDRT”).

Nominations for the 141st running of the $2 million-guaranteed Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (GI), the $1 million-guaranteed Longines Kentucky Oaks and $500,000-added Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (GI) were announced earlier. The roster of other Derby Week stakes events for the week also includes the renamed $200,000 Pat Day Mile Presented by LG&E and KU (GIII), a Derby Day race named for the Hall of Fame jockey Day and previously known as the Derby Trial, and the $100,000 William Walker, a new six-furlong race for 3-year-olds named for African-American jockey and 1877 Kentucky Derby winner William “Billy” Walker set for the April 25 “Opening Night” that launches Kentucky Derby Week and the 2015 Spring Meet.

Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC’s Untapable, who won the 2014 Longines Kentucky Oaks during a championship campaign that included four Grade I victories and concluded with a triumph in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI) at Santa Anita, heads 22 fillies and mares ages 4 and up nominated to compete in the 30th running of the $300,000 La Troienne, one of five Grade I events on the Derby Week schedule. Untapable scored the first victory of her 4-year-old season last week with a 2 ½-length triumph in the Apple Blossom Handicap (GI) at Oaklawn Park. The Steve Asmussen-trained champion had been upset by Pin Oak Stables LLC’s fellow La Troienne nominee Gold Medal Dancer in her 2015 debut in Oaklawn’s Azeri (GII).

The 1 1/8-mile La Troienne, one of six stakes races that will be run on the Kentucky Oaks Day program on May 1, attracted other accomplished nominees that include Barry Schwartz’s Madison (GI) winner Princess Violet; Town and Country Farms’ Alabama (GI) and Coaching Club American Oaks (GI) winner Stopchargingmaria; Harold Queen’s Royal Delta (GII) winner Sheer Drama; Bobby Flay’s Sunshine Millions Distaff winner Dame Dorothy; G. Watts Humphrey Jr.’s Falls City (GII) winner Frivolous; Bill Cubbedge’s Fleur De Lis (GII) and Chilukki (GII) winner Molly Morgan; John Clay’s Kentucky Oaks runner-up and Gazelle (GII) winner My Miss Sophia; and James B. Tafel LLC’s Indiana Oaks (GIII) winner Tiz Windy.

Untapable, a homebred daughter of Tapit, has a career record of 9-1-1 in 13 races with earnings of $3,416,725.

Kaleem Shah Inc.’s Bayern heads the rosters of nominees to both the 81st running of the $500,000 Churchill Downs, a Grade II Kentucky Derby Day race at seven furlongs for 4-year-olds and up, and the 12th running of the $400,000 Alysheba (GII), a 1 1/16-mile race on Kentucky Oaks Day for 4-year-olds and up named in honor of the 1987 Kentucky Derby winner and 1988 Horse of the Year. The Bob Baffert-trained son of Offlee Wild completed 2014 with a victory over Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome and previously unbeaten Shared Belief in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita. His 2014 victories also included the Haskell Invitational (GI) at Monmouth Park, the Pennsylvania Derby (GII) at Parx and the Woody Stephens (GII) at Belmont Park. He finished first in Churchill Downs’ Derby Trial, but was disqualified by track stewards and placed second for interference.

Bayern, a finalist with eventual winner California Chrome and Shared Belief for the Eclipse Award for 2014’s Horse of the Year, has a record of 6-1-1 in 10 races with career earnings of 4,389,680.

Also nominated to both the Churchill Downs and Alysheba is Dogwood Stable’s 2013 Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice, a son of two-time horse of the Year Curlin who won the Metropolitan Handicap (GI), Gulfstream Park Handicap (GII), New Orleans

Handicap (GII) and Westchester Handicap (GIII) for trainer Todd Pletcher in 2014. Also on the roster of Alysheba nominees is Robert S. Evans’ Tonalist, whose victory in the 2014 Belmont Stakes ended California Chrome’s bid for a Triple Crown. The Christophe Clement-trained son of Tapit also won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (GI) and Peter Pan (GII) during his 3-year-old season.

A total of 27 nominations to the Churchill Downs also includes Cigar Mile (GI) winner Private Zone; Kings Bishop (GI) winner The Big Beast; Amsterdam (GII) winner Coup de Grace; Gulfstream Park Sprint (GIII) winner C. Zee; Breeders’ Cup Sprint (GI) third-place finisher Gentleman’s Bet; and 2013 Ack Ack (GIII) winner Pants on Fire.

Bayern, Palace Malice and Tonalist head the star-studded list of 48 nominees to the Alysheba that also includes Clark Handicap Presented by Norton Healthcare (GI) winner Hoppertunity; Wood Memorial (GI) and Jim Dandy (GII) winner Wicked Strong; the Shug McGaughey-trained Gulfstream Park Handicap (GII) and 2013 Remsen (GII) winner Honor Code; Hollywood Gold Cup (GI) winner Majestic Harbor; Whitney (GI) winner Moreno; Belmont Stakes runner-up and Skip Away (GIII) winner Commissioner; 2012 Ack Ack (GIII) winner Neck ‘n Neck; Preakness (GI) runner-up Ride On Curlin; Ben Ali (GIII) winner Protonico; and Matt Winn (GIII) victor Tapiture.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (GI) winner Judy the Beauty heads an elite roster of fillies and mares ages 4 and up made eligible to compete in the 29th running of the $300,000 Humana Distaff (GI) at seven-furlongs on Kentucky Derby Day. The 4-year-old daughter of Ghostzapper is owned and trained by Wesley Ward and her 2014 wins also included Keeneland’s Madison (GI), Santa Anita’s Las Flores (GIII) and the Rancho Bernardo (GIII) at Del Mar. Judy the Beauty ran fourth to Midnight Lucky in last year’s Humana Distaff and has a career record of 9-7-1 in 18 races with earnings of $1,662,122.

The roster of 26 fillies and mares eligible to run in the Humana Distaff also includes La Troinne nominees Dame Dorothy, Gold Medal Dancer, My Miss Sophia, Princess Violet and Stopchargingmaria. Others include Treadway Racing Stable’s Test (GI) winner Sweet Reason; Ken and Sarah Ramsey’s Dogwood (GIII) winner Thank You Marylou; On Cloud Nine Stable’s 2014 Fantasy (GIII) winner Sugar Shock; Ashbrook Farm’s Winning Colors (GIII) winner Southern Honey; and Southern Equine Stable LLC’s and Whispering Oak Farm LLC’s Victory Ride (GIII) winner Street Story.

Other Breeders’ Cup heroes nominated to Derby Week Stakes races include the winners of the event’s turf races for 2-year-olds. Sheep Pond Partners’ Lady Eli, unbeaten winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (GI), heads 53 3-year-old fillies eligible to compete in the 30th running of the $150,000 Edgewood Presented by Forcht Bank (GIII) on Kentucky Oaks Day, and Ken Donworth, Ben McElroy and Wesley Ward’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (GI) winner Hootenanny, one of 51 3-year-olds nominated to the 24th running of the $250,000 American Turf Presented by Ram Trucks (GII) on Derby Day.

The Chad Brown-trained Lady Eli, who won her 3-year-old debut on Sunday in Keeneland’s Appalachian (GIII), is joined on the roster of Edgewood nominees by Ten Broeck Farm’s Sunset Glow, the Wesley Ward-trained runner-up in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Ward also has nominated Hat Creek Racing and Gatewood Bell’s Spanish Pipedream, winner of the Cincinnati Trophy Stakes on synthetic Polytrack at Turfway Park. Other nominees include Appalachian runner-up Miss Temple City; Bourbonette Oaks (GIII) winner Don’t Leave Me; Sweetest Chant (GIII) winner Consumer Credit; Florida Oaks (GIII) winner Quality Rocks; Sanibel Island winner Celestine; and LaCombe Memorial winner Mizz Money.

The Ward-trained Hootenanny is joined on the list of American Turf nominees by Palm Beach (GIII) winner Eh Cumpari; Cecil B. Demille (GIII) winner and Cincinnati Spiral (GIII) runner-up Conquest Typhoon; John Battaglia Memorial winner Royal Son; and Pasadena winner Pappacoolpappacool.

Sixty-one 3-year-olds nominated to the Pat Day Mile include the Todd Pletcher-trained duo of unbeaten Hopeful (GI) winner Competitive Edge, who returned from a layoff with an 8 ¼-length romp in Gulfstream Park’s Tamarac, and Blofeld, unbeaten winner of the Belmont Futurity (GII) and Aqueduct’s Nashua (GII). Others include Bay Shore (GII) winner March; San Vicente (GII) winner and Bay Shore runner-up Lord Nelson; Southwest (GIII) runner-up The Truth Or Else; Iroquois (GIII) runner-up Bold Conquest; Coolmore Lexington (GIII) runner-up Donworth; Gotham (GIII) runner-up Tiz Shea D; and Echo Eddie winner Gimme Da Lute.

Amerman Racing Stables LLC’s defending winner Coffee Clique tops 39 fillies and mares 4-years-old and up made eligible to compete in the 30th running of the $300,000 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Presented by Longines (GII) on Kentucky Derby Day. Trainer Bryan Lynch’s 5-year-old daughter of Medaglia d’Oro also won Saratoga’s Just A Game (GI) in 2014 and was third to fellow nominees Lady Lara (IRE) and Sandiva (IRE) in her 2015 debut in the recent Honey Fox (GII) at Gulfstream Park. Other nominees include Del Mar Oaks (GI) winner Personal Diary; Jenny Wiley (GI) winner Hard Not to Like; Cardinal (GIII) winner Strike Charmer; Modesty (GIII) winner I’m Already Sexy; Arlington Classic (GI) winner Istanford; Dance Smartly (GII) winner Overheard; Edgewood winner A Little Bit Sassy; Goldikova (GII) winner Filimbi; Matriarch (GI) third-place finisher Discreet Marq; and Bayou winner Eden Prairie.

The 21st running of the $150,000 Twin Spires Turf Sprint (GIII) on Kentucky Oaks Day drew 31 nominations that include John Menary and Gail Cox’s Something Extra, Rigney Racing LLC’s Channel Marker and Wes Welker’s Undrafted – the 1-2-3 finishers in Keeneland’s recent Shakertown (GIII). Also nominated is Vinery Stables’ veteran Regally Ready, who won the five-furlong turf race in 2011 and took the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (GII) later that year, and Team Valor International’s Speechify, winner of the Mr. Prospector (GIII) at Gulfstream Park.

The $100,000 William Walker, which kicks off the Kentucky Derby Week and Spring Meet Stakes schedule on Saturday, April 25, attracted 27 3-year-old nominees for its inaugural running. The Pletcher-trained Blofeld, a two-time Grade II winner also nominated to the Pat Day Mile, is the most accomplished of nominated horses.

Others nominated to the six-furlong race include the Steve Asmussen-trained duo of Holy Boss, winner of Oaklawn Park’s Bachelor, and Cinco Charlie, winner of Churchill Downs’ Bashford Manor (GIII) and stakes races at Laurel Park, Delaware Park, Fair Grounds and Sunland Park.

I feel like I am reading a NASCAR press release.

kentucky-derby-betting-preview-america
 

http://www.sbnation.com/odds/2015/4/...sits-atop-odds

See All
2015 Kentucky Derby Odds and Updates

Submitted by Mike Dempsey on Wed, 04/15/2015 - 10:15


Odds to Win 2015 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs at Bovada as of April 15:

American Pharoah 2/1
Dortmund 9/2
Carpe Diem 6/1
Materiality 9/1
Mubtaahij 9/1
Firing Line 14/1
Frosted 14/1
International Star 16/1
Upstart 16/1
El Kabeir 25/1
Itsaknockout 25/1
Ocho Ocho Ocho 25/1
One Lucky Dane 25/1
Danzig Moon 33/1
Far Right 33/1
Ocean Knight 33/1
Tencendur 33/1
Imperia 40/1
Mr Z 50/1

With the possible exception of Dortmund and Mr. Z, I'm guessing you get better odds on all of these horses on Derby Day.

There are 19 listed entries and two shouldn't even be listed (imperia and Ocean Knight)...Even if I make the 20th horse 99-1 this still comes to 143%.

I like 14-1 with Frosted.

14/1 on Firing Line is interesting, he feels like one of the top 4.

You're right. That line sucks.

Both Frosted and Firing Line are available at 20-1 at 5Dimes.

--Dunbar

Frosted at 20-1 might be a good price. I expect he becomes a bit of a wise guy horse over the next two weeks.

Unbelievable that you can get 20-1 on a horse that barely lost to one of the big early favorites (Dortmund) the last two times they faced off. Firing Line has every right to turn the tables, too.

Here's a list of Derby odds taken from just 2 offshore books: Just 4 are from Bookmaker.com. The rest are from 5Dimes.

This line's odds add to 111%, which is equivalent to a 10% takeout. Considering that it includes about 7 also-eligibles, that's a pretty remarkable number.

AMERICANPHAROAH.. 3.05 --Bookmaker
DORTMUND.. 5
CARPEDIEM.. 10
MUBTAAHIJ.. 12
MATERIALITY.. 14.15 --Bookmaker
FROSTED.. 20
FIRINGLINE.. 20
UPSTART.. 25
INTERNATIONALSTAR.. 25
EL KABEIR.. 40
BOLO.. 50
FARRIGHT.. 50
WARSTORY.. 50
OCHO OCHO OCHO 50
DANZIGMOON.. 50
ONELUCKYDANE.. 50
ITSAKNOCKOUT.. 60.5 --Bookmaker
TENCENDUR.. 60.5 --Bookmaker
Keen Ice.. 66
Madefromlucky.. 66
STANFORD.. 66
Bold Conquest.. 66
Mr. Z.. 66
Frammento.. 66
Metaboss.. 100
Firespike.. 100
ToastingMaster.. 100


Toasting Master? Not sure why he's in this list, but if you discount his chance of making the starting gate, the takeout is 9%.


--Dunbar

Intl star sweeps la and is 25.1. Hed be worth a few bucks

They got me with Fresian Fire. Fool me twice shame on me.

:p

Wasn't Friesan Fire coming off a 7 week layoff?

I'd like to know what exactly Tencendur has done wrong - caught off-tracks in 3 of 5 starts, and moved up nicely when finally catching a fast main track. A lot of Frosted love here, yet this one had a legit shot to move way up off the Wood effort and is not even in many of the discussions.

tywizard, what should the % be ? I know it's 100% plus takeout which I think is 20% to 24% here.

I think a 145% line is highly dubious as to the motive. I think it's fishy. Maybe essentially it's accurate in ranking, but it serves to make people think they are getting bargains, when they aren't. I think it's deceptive.

I thought it's 100 + takeout + # of starters. Don't know off hand what CD's WPS rake is, but it seems like 145 is a fair par

Hasn't done anything wrong, I just don't think he's good enough at this stage. Was my key longshot in the Wood and I feel that was the race to play him. Maybe he moved too early, but Frosted easily breezed past. His BRIS LP figs are very close but not high enough historically to make me want to confidently use him underneath.

Fair enough, but my point was that 100% of his figures prior to the Wood are based on the Inner track at Aqueduct....75% of which were over an off track.


Food for thought, is all. If the Wood was a conditioner for him (consequently, his best race to date + his longest distance ever run, over a traditionally laid-out surface), he could clearly move up at a huge number. I'll be watching his works and how he handles CD very closely.

I think FF had tremendous physical issues though.