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-   -   Poly speed disaster at keeneland (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5564)

oracle80 10-11-2006 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I would have. When Turfway first went to Poly, u might remember that I was on the other forum talking about how the horses were staggering home in every race. The opening fractions were close to normal but closing ones have been ridiculously slow, an indicator to me that the track is a lot more tiring than regular dirt and puts speed at a distinct disadvantage. As Oracle has pointed out, this is contradictory to what breeders are looking for these days. The game is killing itself. Breed horses for speed and then build tracks that kill speed horses. Brilliant.


Its not exactly a good marketing plan is it?
Wait until some owners have some of the soundest high 6 figure yearling purchases you ever saw who haven't earned a quarter.
Lets see how fast they head east to the dirt.
East Coast tracks will react further than they already have, which has been good, by making sure they have good cushions and tracks with a good surface that is harrowed deeper. Sound is good, sound is very very good. Sound and everyone with talent and speed hitting a brick wall isn't good, not at all good.

The Bid 10-11-2006 06:27 PM

Just got off the phone with a guy in Canada. Chiefswood Farm, they will not be running over the poly anymore, they have had 3 come back bad, and 2 not come back at all. Lots of bad reports on Woodbines track from insiders. Amazingly Keeneland and Woodbine have the same surface, lets see how long it takes Keeneland to get real

oracle80 10-11-2006 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
Just got off the phone with a guy in Canada. Chiefswood Farm, they will not be running over the poly anymore, they have had 3 come back bad, and 2 not come back at all. Lots of bad reports on Woodbines track from insiders. Amazingly Keeneland and Woodbine have the same surface, lets see how long it takes Keeneland to get real

I like it, I love it, I want some more of it.

Crown@club 10-11-2006 07:00 PM

Please! No Country Music!

The Bid 10-11-2006 07:04 PM

I mean I just got off the phone with the guy. He said a ton of horses are coming back bad, not just theirs. They are scared to run over the surface anymore. I wonder if Keeneland changed their track so it wasnt as bad as woodbines? Remember I reported a few days ago 3 or 4 had been put down, this guy said 2 of HIS have been put down. I didnt even have this guy in the equation

oracle80 10-11-2006 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
I mean I just got off the phone with the guy. He said a ton of horses are coming back bad, not just theirs. They are scared to run over the surface anymore. I wonder if Keeneland changed their track so it wasnt as bad as woodbines? Remember I reported a few days ago 3 or 4 had been put down, this guy said 2 of HIS have been put down. I didnt even have this guy in the equation

Its kinda like the old Soviet Union where the guy would be onscreen reading the news with a guy offscreen aiming a pistol at him making sure he read what he was supposed to. Kinda like, food shortage causing wonderful weight loss among Soviet citizens with a smile.
The news has been rather like that regarding poly. Wonder why? Couldn't be the money could it? Nah, not that.:rolleyes:

The Bid 10-11-2006 07:32 PM

Keeneland made all the money, they have the same surface. You know they arent going to say anything bad about the track. I know Turfway told a few guys to keep their mouths shut, if they didnt like it they could leave. Thats just how it goes, eventually the real numbers will come out, and the polywonders will be left with egg on their face.

disrespectnfool 10-11-2006 07:44 PM

O villain, villain, smiling, damned villain!

oracle80 10-11-2006 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disrespectnfool
O villain, villain, smiling, damned villain!

We oughta have a pool, pick the next racing day at keeneland where there is a wire job. Put me down for Saturday, next Saturday that is, not this upcoming one.:)

Sightseek 10-11-2006 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
We oughta have a pool, pick the next racing day at keeneland where there is a wire job. Put me down for Saturday, next Saturday that is, not this upcoming one.:)

I'm still waiting to pick up the local paper and see the story about the local man who was taken away in a white jacket after running down the street yelling "no more Polytrack!" :D I'm just kidding with you.

SniperSB23 10-11-2006 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
We oughta have a pool, pick the next racing day at keeneland where there is a wire job. Put me down for Saturday, next Saturday that is, not this upcoming one.:)

I'll take Race 3 tomorrow.

oracle80 10-11-2006 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
I'm still waiting to pick up the local paper and see the story about the local man who was taken away in a white jacket after running down the street yelling "no more Polytrack!" :D I'm just kidding with you.

I just like saying I told you so!!!!

oracle80 10-11-2006 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
I'll take Race 3 tomorrow.

hmm, I'm looking at it now, lets see what our friend the Sniper has for us.
No way dude, way too much pace in there. Anything more than a lone speed horse who looks to have a 5 length lead is not a candidate for a wire job. Cotton King, Sky Diving, Dance Man, Regwell, and Shark all have speed.

Sightseek 10-11-2006 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
I just like saying I told you so!!!!

:eek: You do?! Who would have ever thought? :p

Looking over the charts though, it does seem a fair amount of favorites are winning at the expected normal percentage, no?

oracle80 10-11-2006 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
I'm still waiting to pick up the local paper and see the story about the local man who was taken away in a white jacket after running down the street yelling "no more Polytrack!" :D I'm just kidding with you.

And my posts are in direct response to the polytrack shills who reside here. They quit shilling, I'll quit posting facts and data. Don't count on it soon.

oracle80 10-11-2006 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
:eek: You do?! Who would have ever thought? :p

Looking over the charts though, it does seem a fair amount of favorites are winning at the expected normal percentage, no?

With turf thrown in yes.

SniperSB23 10-11-2006 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
hmm, I'm looking at it now, lets see what our friend the Sniper has for us.
No way dude, way too much pace in there. Anything more than a lone speed horse who looks to have a 5 length lead is not a candidate for a wire job. Cotton King, Sky Diving, Dance Man, Regwell, and Shark all have speed.

I don't have PPs for tomorrow so have no clue. Just saw it was a small field (8) by polytrack standards.

I'd like to see Aqueduct go to poly and even the training tracks at Belmont and Saratoga. I definitely don't see why Saratoga should ever go to poly and don't see too much reason for Belmont to go to it.

SentToStud 10-11-2006 08:26 PM

We had about 120 feet of 6-foot heavy wood fencing go down during Wilma last fall. My fence guy finished the job two days ago.

A good deal of my yard has been a mess with all the construction junk. So tomorrow I will put down about 1500 sq feet of sod.

Yesterday and today I spread about 2.5 cubic yards of topsoil down. Just the dirt looks freakin' beautiful.

I refuse to believe that anything is better for horses than dirt.

Maybe I should forget the sod, put up a 6 inch high rail around my new dirt, get some hamsters and run my own meet. I know Scav would throw down some action.

Blue Eyes 10-11-2006 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Its not exactly a good marketing plan is it?
Wait until some owners have some of the soundest high 6 figure yearling purchases you ever saw who haven't earned a quarter.
.

That's happened before Polytrack came along. There's alot of high dollared yearlings out there that haven't earned a fraction of what was paid for them. Dirt, Poly, Turf - has nothing to do with it.

sumitas 10-11-2006 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
I mean I just got off the phone with the guy. He said a ton of horses are coming back bad, not just theirs. They are scared to run over the surface anymore. I wonder if Keeneland changed their track so it wasnt as bad as woodbines? Remember I reported a few days ago 3 or 4 had been put down, this guy said 2 of HIS have been put down. I didnt even have this guy in the equation

Keep repeating that lie and you still won't make it true. Keeneland is a new surface. It'll be like Turfway soon enough, where there is no bias (other than yours).

Round Pen 10-11-2006 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
Just got off the phone with a guy in Canada. Chiefswood Farm, they will not be running over the poly anymore, they have had 3 come back bad, and 2 not come back at all. Lots of bad reports on Woodbines track from insiders. Amazingly Keeneland and Woodbine have the same surface, lets see how long it takes Keeneland to get real

Funny thing I probably know more trainers at Woodbine than anyone else on this forum. I have spoken with 3 in the last week not going to drop names but between the 3 they have made over 600 starts at the meet. and all 3 love it. In fact one of them I speak to on a daily basis has told me that the poly has extended the careers of a few horses that more than likely would have been retired.

So this stuff is not all bad. I seem to be in the Minority here but I am not ready to codemn Poly track yet. But in the same instance I do not think every track should convert to poly either.

And Bid I am sure Chiefswood has had some bad Luck but Eric has run 9 horses in the last 30 Days and over 1/2 of them were on the Turf. And Correct me if I am wrong here they are not even stabled at the track dont they ship in from a training center.

disappearingdan_akaplaya 10-11-2006 10:44 PM

LOL its funny how all you heard in the past was people complaining that keeneland favored inside speed too much! track surfaces may change, new techology may be instituted etc etc etc but one thing will remain constant wherever there is gambling there is gonna be biatchin and whinin NO MATTER WHAT

sumitas 10-11-2006 10:58 PM

hahahar har LOLOL....:D

JJP 10-11-2006 11:00 PM

There is one good thing about this anti-speed bias that Kee has: when these tiring speed horses ship to other tracks, they will look worse on paper than they really are. Many juicy overlays coming at Churchill.

1st_Saturday_in_May 10-11-2006 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
hmm, I'm looking at it now, lets see what our friend the Sniper has for us.
No way dude, way too much pace in there. Anything more than a lone speed horse who looks to have a 5 length lead is not a candidate for a wire job. Cotton King, Sky Diving, Dance Man, Regwell, and Shark all have speed.

REALLY like Forest Blue in that spot. If I can get close to the 7/2 ML it may be time to unload...

Pointg5 10-12-2006 07:28 AM

Just going over for tomorrow, I see Pletcher is 10 0 3 1 .00 for the meet, when do you think the last time pletcher has had 10 starters and no winners, he's probably overjoyed...

The Bid 10-12-2006 07:39 AM

Round Pen, you are completely wrong. I wont name drop either. Im just telling you the truth, whether or not you guys want to believe it is up to you. They have had a bunch of horses come back bad, and a few not come back at all. Also, I have talked to a few other "prominent" trianers up there and they are saying the same thing, contrary to what you are saying. Lets just wait and see how it plays out rather than argue, especially when I know Im right.

It is obvious to me there is a big problem with Woodbines Poly

oracle80 10-12-2006 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5
Just going over for tomorrow, I see Pletcher is 10 0 3 1 .00 for the meet, when do you think the last time pletcher has had 10 starters and no winners, he's probably overjoyed...

I'm sure hes thrilled.

oracle80 10-12-2006 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bababooyee
OMG! A track bias! :eek: :p

Isn't this something handicappers should be at least somewhat excited to see? It is a clear advantage to those paying attention. For example, how long did the strong speed bias at Keeneland last during the spring? Make use of this info while you can as these things come and go all the time, at lots of tracks, over lots of different surfaces.

Also, just because you don't like a particular surface, or what have you, doesn't mean you should totally forget some basics of the racing game.





Steven Davidowitz, Betting Thoroughbreds 25, 37 (2d rev. ed. 1997)

And even though it wasn't oracle's intent, those of us who can't pay as close attention should actually thank him for this info. So, in that spirit, "Thank you!" Seriously, please feel free to share as much information like this you can - it is very much appreciated (by me, at least).


Baba,
I really think that this thread was informative to people. You'd be surprised how many folks don't realize whats going on.
I just had a trainer friend of mine in NY call me. He wanted to tell me that in the 4th race today at Keeneland he heard that a firster trained by a guy that he shares a common owner with(they sometimes trade horses back and forth for the guy so he knows him well) could fly and to bet him.
I thanked hium but told him under no circumstances to bet the horse because he shows fast workouts and will likely have to make the lead to win. My friend the trainer didn't understand why that would be bad. I explained about the 29 poly races and only one wire job by a 3-5 shot who was taking a triple drop in class and was life and death to narrowly win. He was stunned. He hadn't been paying attention to it that closely down there and had no idea how bad speed was. He thanked me for stopping him from bettiing barn's payroll on the horse. And no he wasn't kidding.

Round Pen 10-12-2006 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
Round Pen, you are completely wrong. I wont name drop either. Im just telling you the truth, whether or not you guys want to believe it is up to you. They have had a bunch of horses come back bad, and a few not come back at all. Also, I have talked to a few other "prominent" trianers up there and they are saying the same thing, contrary to what you are saying. Lets just wait and see how it plays out rather than argue, especially when I know Im right.

It is obvious to me there is a big problem with Woodbines Poly

Ok I will drop a name now because he said I could when we were talking about it this Morning. Mark Casse has probably run more horses on the Polytrack then anyone and he told me again today that he absolutley loves it plus he is at trackside an told me this morning that he has heard no one complain to him when they are talking about it.

And by the way I am not completely wrong just because the trainers I talk too love the stuff go ahead tell me who you are talking too because Mark
said he would love to talk to them to here there concerns.

1st_Saturday_in_May 10-12-2006 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May
REALLY like Forest Blue in that spot. If I can get close to the 7/2 ML it may be time to unload...

****, he scratched :mad:

Revolution 10-12-2006 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
If you are a trainer or an owner who owns or trains a horse who has speed(the trademark characteristic of good tbreds) then Keenelands new poly track is definitely not the place for you.

4 racing days so far, 29 "poly races" have yielded ONE wire to wire winner.
Sounds like a great deal to me!!! LOL!!!

Your act with the poly comments is getting old. If you don't like it, don't bet it. Not their problem.

Here is a question for you. How many horses have broken down so far? None.

oracle80 10-12-2006 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Revolution
Your act with the poly comments is getting old. If you don't like it, don't bet it. Not their problem.

Here is a question for you. How many horses have broken down so far? None.

Oh REALLY? And you know this how? Apparently up at Woodbine quite a few have, and its the same surface you mope. Ask Noble Stella how she likes it. Game mare doesn't miss a dance in years, runs often and hits hard. She works on poly and bang, shes gone. But I'm sure you have a canned response ready for that huh?

Seattleallstar 10-12-2006 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Oh REALLY? And you know this how? Apparently up at Woodbine quite a few have, and its the same surface you mope. Ask Noble Stella how she likes it. Game mare doesn't miss a dance in years, runs often and hits hard. She works on poly and bang, shes gone. But I'm sure you have a canned response ready for that huh?


its a freak injury, Polytrack is racings savior

Revolution 10-12-2006 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Oh REALLY? And you know this how? Apparently up at Woodbine quite a few have, and its the same surface you mope. Ask Noble Stella how she likes it. Game mare doesn't miss a dance in years, runs often and hits hard. She works on poly and bang, shes gone. But I'm sure you have a canned response ready for that huh?

You are so biased it is pointless to argue. Quite a few broke down at Del Mar and Saratoga this summer. I put the quality of horses at Keeneland in the same category, and I have read none have broken down. I didn't even have to read about Saratoga and Del Mar. They broke down in races. Stick to facts. Real ones. Not the ones in Oracleland.

Revolution 10-12-2006 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus
Any guess as to when the first Breeders' Cup will be held on Polytrack? What about Santa Anita in 2008 or 2009? Since it last held the Cup in 2003 -- I was there and loved 90 degree temps in late October -- it might be in the running to host again relatively soon.

Hopefully soon. We then will get plenty of europeans and horses from other parts of the world.

Seattleallstar 10-12-2006 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Revolution
You are so biased it is pointless to argue. Quite a few broke down at Del Mar and Saratoga this summer. I put the quality of horses at Keeneland in the same category, and I have read none have broken down. I didn't even have to read about Saratoga and Del Mar. They broke down in races. Stick to facts. Real ones. Not the ones in Oracleland.


yeah no kidding


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