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-   -   Honor Code staying home for ALW; Wood to follow (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=53368)

Danzig 03-12-2014 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanner12oz (Post 969202)
Maybe they should vote for derby entrants? Then you would never be guaranteed a spot to coast from...

no, they need a system so everyone knows all that's required to get in. so, now trainers know if you get one win, you're in. the others will be left scrambling and chasing points, while the 'top' horses train up.

Kasept 03-12-2014 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FATPIANO (Post 969262)
It took a new track record to beat HC

Well.. not exactly.

Kasept 03-12-2014 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 969263)
I don't think there was a gold rail or speed bias on FOY day. The horses that won on the rail were supposed to win except this guy, and he just validated the performance. I hope they don't rush him to Derby because he looks like he's got a big future.

Why wasn't he 'supposed' to win on Fountain Day? Because he wasn't favored?

Sanchez and Azpurua were talking about getting to Derby with him before and after the debut. They also turned down offers for him Fountain Day.

Danzig 03-12-2014 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 969284)
Well.. not exactly.

:tro:

ateamstupid 03-12-2014 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 969285)
Why wasn't he 'supposed' to win on Fountain Day? Because he wasn't favored?

Sanchez and Azpurua were talking about getting to Derby with him before and after the debut. They also turned down offers for him Fountain Day.

I couldn't believe he went off at 9-1 despite having a 45 and change 1/2 mile from the gate. I guess people don't realize how rare that is. He didn't break great in his debut and still blitzed that field.

South Beach Luv 03-12-2014 08:52 PM

Thought it was interesting that after today there have been 4 track records at Gulfstream in 2014.

1m - Normandy Invasion

1m 1/16 - Devil's Cave, Social Inclusion

1m 1/8 - Lea

ateamstupid 03-12-2014 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv (Post 969295)
Thought it was interesting that after today there have been 4 track records at Gulfstream in 2014.

1m - Normandy Invasion

1m 1/16 - Devil's Cave, Social Inclusion

1m 1/8 - Lea

Both the dirt and turf course are baked to a crisp. $16k claimers ran 1:27.35 for 7 1/2 furlongs today on the grass.

philcski 03-12-2014 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 969285)
Why wasn't he 'supposed' to win on Fountain Day? Because he wasn't favored?

Sanchez and Azpurua were talking about getting to Derby with him before and after the debut. They also turned down offers for him Fountain Day.

Good point. I guess because I don't consider any firster "supposed" to win...

If I had any balls I would have singled him in the pick 6 like I had originally thought to.

Interested to see the Thorograph. Almost has to be negative despite no ground loss. He is a special horse. Very good mover.

blackthroatedwind 03-12-2014 09:06 PM

I think it's fair that Phil said he wasn't supposed to win. That term refers to short priced/logical horses. No firster is really ever " supposed to win " especially one at 9:1. It's not saying it was a shock. It's racetrack jargon.

Steve just disagreed so he would have a chance to name drop and play the insider game. He still hasn't figured out that we know he's an insider:-)

philcski 03-12-2014 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 969298)
I think it's fair that Phil said he wasn't supposed to win. That term refers to short priced/logical horses. No firster is really ever " supposed to win " especially one at 9:1. It's not saying it was a shock. It's racetrack jargon.

Steve just disagreed so he would have a chance to name drop and play the insider game. He still hasn't figured out that we know he's an insider:-)

Nothing against Manny Azpurua but I don't think name droppin' him even gets you on the Calder backside...!

I would like to know why they have this horse listed with a solitary work at Hollywood Park in June, before starting a standard workout pattern in January at GP. That has to be an error, right?

I really feel like this horse has Preakness written all over him.

Kasept 03-12-2014 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 969298)
I think it's fair that Phil said he wasn't supposed to win. That term refers to short priced/logical horses. No firster is really ever " supposed to win " especially one at 9:1. It's not saying it was a shock. It's racetrack jargon.

Steve just disagreed so he would have a chance to name drop and play the insider game. He still hasn't figured out that we know he's an insider:-)

LOL. The horse was well discussed before the debut. Certainly ATR listeners heard Welsch talk about him with me. The inhibiting factor was the rail draw because he had been reportedly struggling with the gate.

If I was name dropping, I would have said 'Ron and Manny'..

my miss storm cat 03-12-2014 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 969298)
:-)

:eek:

I just wanted to mention that I can now cross one thing off my own, personal things-I-never-thought-I'd-see list.

Either that or I'm hallucinating.

Indian Charlie 03-13-2014 12:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 969285)
Why wasn't he 'supposed' to win on Fountain Day? Because he wasn't favored?

Sanchez and Azpurua were talking about getting to Derby with him before and after the debut. They also turned down offers for him Fountain Day.

Why the wraps?

Calzone Lord 03-13-2014 12:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 969310)
Why the wraps?

So they could take them off after he wins, like he was supposed to, and wrap their stacks of G's with them.

Beats a money clip.

Alabama Stakes 03-13-2014 12:24 PM

Honor Code hasn't grown much since last year.......kind of like revolutionary. Can't believe Braverman sold most of Cairo Prince who will end up big fave when winning the Kentucky Derby.

Indian Charlie 03-13-2014 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 969300)
Nothing against Manny Azpurua but I don't think name droppin' him even gets you on the Calder backside...!

I would like to know why they have this horse listed with a solitary work at Hollywood Park in June, before starting a standard workout pattern in January at GP. That has to be an error, right?

I really feel like this horse has Preakness written all over him.

http://www.drf.com/news/premium/gulf...cial-inclusion

philcski 03-13-2014 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 969353)

I don't have drf+ and refuse to pay for it since I don't use drf pps anyway. What is the synapsis?

Indian Charlie 03-13-2014 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 969386)
I don't have drf+ and refuse to pay for it since I don't use drf pps anyway. What is the synapsis?

He had ten works at HP last year, but they decided to give him time.

Oh yeah, they chose GP because it's the meeting of champions.

Also, they are fielding offers for him.

Best ones they mentioned were half for 2 mil, and 75% for 5 mil.

philcski 03-13-2014 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 969397)
He had ten works at HP last year, but they decided to give him time.

Oh yeah, they chose GP because it's the meeting of champions.

Also, they are fielding offers for him.

Best ones they mentioned were half for 2 mil, and 75% for 5 mil.

You know what you say when someone offers you $5 million for 75%?

Thank you very much, here you go, hand over the cash.

RockHardTen1985 03-13-2014 07:25 PM

A big part of the story should be the sire, I believe Pioneer of the Nile is going to end up being a great sire. This is a pretty good start. I know he had at least 2 baby winners in NY last year. Base Case Scenario at Saratoga and a really good looking Pletcher filly who romped at Belmont. I can’t remember her name right now, but I think she was Stonestreet.

NTamm1215 03-13-2014 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 969410)
A big part of the story should be the sire, I believe Pioneer of the Nile is going to end up being a great sire. This is a pretty good start. I know he had at least 2 baby winners in NY last year. Base Case Scenario at Saratoga and a really good looking Pletcher filly who romped at Belmont. I can’t remember her name right now, but I think she was Stonestreet.

The favorite for the Florida Derby is a Pioneerof the Nile.

RockHardTen1985 03-13-2014 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 969415)
The favorite for the Florida Derby is a Pioneerof the Nile.

lol yup.
Forgot about him. Who was the Pletcher filly? She had a silly kinda name I think.

blackthroatedwind 03-13-2014 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 969408)
You know what you say when someone offers you $5 million for 75%?

Thank you very much, here you go, hand over the cash.


Yeah, I'm a little dubious of that supposed offer.

philcski 03-13-2014 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 969421)
Yeah, I'm a little dubious of that supposed offer.

I could even believe $2 million for 100% because people are that desperate to get to the Derby, but the reality is the horse has 0 points right now. So even that is not a guarantee.

I see it this way- Rachel Alexandra sold for $10 million-ish as a ready-made superstar to a guy who had money to burn before he passed. She certainly would have sold for $5 million+ in the ring as a broodmare if she got hurt in her next start and Jess Jackson suddenly went bankrupt and had to unload, so the real risk on her was $5 million. And she was a 20 length winner of the Kentucky Oaks at that point, not a 5 horse allowance at Gulfstream.

This horse is really good, but his residual is basically $0 if he gets hurt in his next start, so $6.7 million for less than a sure thing? No way.

RockHardTen1985 03-13-2014 09:37 PM

I found her....
Ari the Adventurer

+ARI THE ADVENTURER (f, 2, Pioneerof the Nile--Wild Catseye {SW, $113,134}, by Forest Wildcat), looking to become the third winner for her freshman sire (by Empire Maker), was hustled out of the gate to take the early lead. The 1-9 favorite charged through fractions of :22.67 and :45.12, kicked clear in upper stretch and romped home much the best to win by 6 3/4 lengths against just three rivals. Lochan (Flatter) was second and Sky Crew (Sky Mesa) was third. Dance Tap (Tapit) was scratched. Becky Thomas purchased Ari the Adventurer for $52,000 as a Keeneland September yearling and the filly blossomed into a $350,000 OBSMAR juvenile after working a co-fastest furlong in :9 4/5. Her win kept trainer Todd Pletcher and Stonestreet Stables a perfect four-for-four with debuting juveniles in 2013. Click for the brisnet.com chart or VIDEO. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $42,000.
O-Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Super Fine Farm (KY). T-Todd A Pletcher.

Calzone Lord 03-13-2014 10:10 PM

You just had 40 different 2yo's sell for 300K or more at OBS. A couple of horses who look like they can't run much at all, sold for low six-figs.

It's really hard to say what a horse like Social Inclusion might sell for...but the figure is certainly A LOT more than logic would dictate. Racehorses are generally bad investments -- and it seems like especially so when you've got a stock market that isn't down in the dumps like it was five years ago.

Danzig 03-14-2014 06:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 969429)
You just had 40 different 2yo's sell for 300K or more at OBS. A couple of horses who look like they can't run much at all, sold for low six-figs.

It's really hard to say what a horse like Social Inclusion might sell for...but the figure is certainly A LOT more than logic would dictate. Racehorses are generally bad investments -- and it seems like especially so when you've got a stock market that isn't down in the dumps like it was five years ago.

of course they're bad investments. i don't know that i'd even call them an investment..that would be like saying your 401k plan is buying lottery tickets until one hits.
if one wants to invest, you call a stockbroker. if you want to buy cool toys, you buy a horse or a fast car.

robfla 03-14-2014 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 969300)

I would like to know why they have this horse listed with a solitary work at Hollywood Park in June, before starting a standard workout pattern in January at GP. That has to be an error, right?

He was with Jeff Bonde, and Bonde worked him a handful of times before being transferred to Azparua.


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