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-   -   3/8 (SA): Big Cap, Kilroe (G1's), San Carlos, San Felipe (G2's) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=53344)

ateamstupid 03-05-2014 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arletta (Post 968201)
Finally, a really great card Saturday.

:tro: Santa Anita has been aching for a card like this. Nice to see full fields for once.

lemoncrush 03-05-2014 03:43 PM

Quote:

Santa Anita Handicap:

1 Will Take Charge Saez 123 (2-1) L
2 Mucho Macho Man Stevens G L 124 (9-5) L
3 Blingo Gryder A T 117 (8-1) L
4 Imperative Desormeaux K J 114 (12-1) L
5 Rousing Sermon Bejarano R 114 (12-1) L
6 American Blend Talamo J 114 (20-1) L
7 Game On Dude Smith M E 122 (5-2) L
8 Hear the Ghost Rosario J 114 (20-1) L
With all due respect to Jon White, I cannot see Game on Dude at 5-2 in this spot. I realize he'll still take a lot of money based on his reputation and overall record at Santa Anita, but isn't 5-1 more realistic? He just got drilled by Blingo for god sakes. And now add Will Take Charge and Mucho Macho Man to the mix.

robfla 03-05-2014 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush (Post 968204)
With all due respect to Jon White, I cannot see Game on Dude at 5-2 in this spot. I realize he'll still take a lot of money based on his reputation and overall record at Santa Anita, but isn't 5-1 more realistic? He just got drilled by Blingo for god sakes. And now add Will Take Charge and Mucho Macho Man to the mix.

on the other hand, a lot of locals / West Coasters will be betting Game On Dude

I think 5/2 - 7/2 will be about what he goes off at.

NTamm1215 03-05-2014 03:48 PM

He's going to get the lead, which is obviously going to help a ton. I couldn't bet him at 3-1, but I think he'll be right around that price.

lemoncrush 03-05-2014 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 968206)
He's going to get the lead, which is obviously going to help a ton. I couldn't bet him at 3-1, but I think he'll be right around that price.

Not having Blueskiesandrainbows to battle for the lead will help him for sure. Should be a great card on Saturday.

Jay Frederick 03-05-2014 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush (Post 968204)
With all due respect to Jon White, I cannot see Game on Dude at 5-2 in this spot. I realize he'll still take a lot of money based on his reputation and overall record at Santa Anita, but isn't 5-1 more realistic? He just got drilled by Blingo for god sakes. And now add Will Take Charge and Mucho Macho Man to the mix.

I'll be shocked if he is as high as 5-1.

I think his odds will be closer to Will Take Charge's than a lot of people think with Mucho Macho Man the favorite.

helicopter11 03-05-2014 11:00 PM

Why baffert didnt put Shakin it up in the Big Cap? He won the Malibu and the Strub and the Big Cap is the finale in the Strub Series
He has great closing speed and could have been in the mix late.

Indian Charlie 03-06-2014 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by helicopter11 (Post 968242)
Why baffert didnt put Shakin it up in the Big Cap? He won the Malibu and the Strub and the Big Cap is the finale in the Strub Series
He has great closing speed and could have been in the mix late.

Nope.

Kasept 03-06-2014 06:28 AM

5th (2:00) San Felipe S. (G2)

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 Home Run Kitten Quinonez A 118 L
2 Unstoppable Colby Saez L 118 L
3 Rprettyboyfloyd Nakatani C S 118 L
4 California Chrome Espinoza V 118 L
5 Sawyer's Hill Garcia M 118 L
6 Bayern Stevens G L 118 L
7 Kristo Rosario J 118 L
8 Schoolofhardrocks Talamo J 118 FTL
9 Midnight Hawk Smith M E 120 L
10 Recanted Gutierrez Mario 118 L



6th (2:30) China Doll S.

1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $75,000

1 Anniversary Kitty Nakatani C S 117 L
2 Loan Savant Gutierrez Mario 117 L
3 Sushi Empire Espinoza V 122 L
4 Soresca (IRE) SutherlandKruse C 117 L
5 Screen Goddess Rosario J 117 L
6 Tiz Kissable Baze T C 117 L
7 Nashoba's Gold Talamo J 117 L
8 Diversy Harbor Stevens G L 117 L
9 Uzziel Blanc B 117 L
10 Sheza Smoke Show Saez L 117 L
11 On the Backstreets Bejarano R 117 L
12 Savings Account Smith M E 117 L
13 Full Ransom Desormeaux K J 122 L



7th (3:00) San Carlos S. (G2)

7 Furlongs | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Sahara Sky Rosario J 120 L
2 Clubhouse Ride Baze T C 120 L
3 Zeewat Nakatani C S 118 L
4 Big Macher Saez L 118 L
5 Cyclometer Talamo J 118 L
6 Wild Dude Bejarano R 123 L
7 Ready for More Garcia M 118 L
8 Let's Get Crackin Delgadillo A 118 L
9 Midnight Transfer Espinoza V 118 L
10 Shakin It Up Smith M E 123 L



8th (3:30) Frank E. Kilroe Mile S. (G1)

1 Mile (Turf) | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $350,000

1 Lochte Bocachica O 123 L
2 Regally Ready Smith M E 118 L
3 Optimizer Saez L 118 L
4 Suggestive Boy (ARG) Talamo J 118 L
5 Za Approval Rosario J 118 L
6 Winning Prize (ARG) Nakatani C S 118 L
7 Horizontalyspeakin Maldonado E 118 L
8 Tom's Tribute Stevens G L 118 L
9 Silentio Bejarano R 118 L
10 Lakerville Desormeaux K J 118 L



9th (4:00) Santa Anita H. (G1)

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $750,000

1 Will Take Charge Saez (2-1) L 123
2 Mucho Macho Man Stevens G L (9-5) 124 L
3 Blingo Gryder A T (8-1) 117 L
4 Imperative Desormeaux K J (12-1) 114 L
5 Rousing Sermon Bejarano R 114 (12-1) L
6 American Blend Talamo J 114 (20-1) L
7 Game On Dude Smith M E 122 (5-2) L
8 Hear the Ghost Rosario J 114 (20-1) L

Kasept 03-06-2014 08:14 AM

BRIS SAN FELIPE PP'S: www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14SanFelipe.pdf

Alabama Stakes 03-06-2014 10:14 AM

Do they play a nice 1991 version of Grateful Dead's China Doll when the hosses come on the track for that race ? Now that would be cool.

Aly-Sheba 03-06-2014 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush (Post 968204)
With all due respect to Jon White, I cannot see Game on Dude at 5-2 in this spot. I realize he'll still take a lot of money based on his reputation and overall record at Santa Anita, but isn't 5-1 more realistic? He just got drilled by Blingo for god sakes. And now add Will Take Charge and Mucho Macho Man to the mix.

If you listen to Jon White on Steve's show, he would rather have the odds lower, because he does not want to be embarrassed, if he makes a horses odds too high and it gets bet down and wins!! Mind Boggling IMO!!

Also I find it a disservice that he and Santa Anita wait so long to post morning line odds, because if you want to prints PP's out early, the horses numbers are not listed, only post position.

pmayjr 03-06-2014 12:29 PM

RPRettyboyFloyd was entered in a MSW as well over the weekend... good grief Denise, let the horse graduate before throwing him in with the big dogs.

RockHardTen1985 03-06-2014 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 968319)
RPRettyboyFloyd was entered in a MSW as well over the weekend... good grief Denise, let the horse graduate before throwing him in with the big dogs.

No way he wins that MSW on Friday. Tough group.

Duvalier 03-06-2014 03:10 PM

Bayern supposedly scratching out of the San Felipe Saturday with a bruised inside quarter according to Bob Ike.

Stickhorse 03-06-2014 03:19 PM

Bayern out of San Felipe!
 
Just saw this on Twitter

Bob Ike ‏@bobike1

Just heard that Bayern will scratch from Saturday's San Felipe due to a bruised inside quarter.

Danzig 03-06-2014 03:42 PM

bob having a tough time right now...first indianapolis, now bayern.

FATPIANO 03-06-2014 03:51 PM

VERY HAPPY, I have Midnight Hawk in WInstar Fantasy Derby, and was very afraid of Bayern:D:D

pmayjr 03-06-2014 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 968334)
No way he wins that MSW on Friday. Tough group.

Fine, but if he can't beat a salty group of MSWs, he shouldn't be running in the San Felipe.

RockHardTen1985 03-06-2014 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 968373)
Fine, but if he can't beat a salty group of MSWs, he shouldn't be running in the San Felipe.

I totally agree. To be honest though, now that Bayern is out they might as well take a shot. He might be able to clunk up and hit the board again.

pmayjr 03-06-2014 07:03 PM

By the way,

I know I'm in the severe minority on this, but the competition in the Big Cap is likely to be tougher than the Dubai World Cup for Mucho Macho Man. If he loses Saturday his connections deserve to take crap for not shipping there.

I'm at work so if this starts debate, gimme a couple hours to reply.

Jay Frederick 03-06-2014 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 968375)
By the way,

I know I'm in the severe minority on this, but the competition in the Big Cap is likely to be tougher than the Dubai World Cup for Mucho Macho Man. If he loses Saturday his connections deserve to take crap for not shipping there.

I'm at work so if this starts debate, gimme a couple hours to reply.

The Big Cap is run at arguably his favorite course on a surface we know he handles. So how is the competition in the Dubai World Cup going to be softer, especially when you factor in the surface?

ateamstupid 03-06-2014 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 968375)
By the way,

I know I'm in the severe minority on this, but the competition in the Big Cap is likely to be tougher than the Dubai World Cup for Mucho Macho Man. If he loses Saturday his connections deserve to take crap for not shipping there.

I'm at work so if this starts debate, gimme a couple hours to reply.

The level of competition is meaningless. Shipping him across the world to run on a surface he most likely can't handle is asinine, especially with the opportunity to add a race as prestigious as the Big Cap to his resume staring them in the face.

His connections deserve credit win or lose for keeping him home.

Revidere 03-06-2014 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 968384)
The level of competition is meaningless. Shipping him across the world to run on a surface he most likely can't handle is asinine, especially with the opportunity to add a race as prestigious as the Big Cap to his resume staring them in the face.

His connections deserve credit win or lose for keeping him home.

:tro:

pmayjr 03-06-2014 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 968384)
The level of competition is meaningless. Shipping him across the world to run on a surface he most likely can't handle is asinine, especially with the opportunity to add a race as prestigious as the Big Cap to his resume staring them in the face.

His connections deserve credit win or lose for keeping him home.

He's won the biggest race in North America over that surface already. What would it matter if he wins the Big Cap against 2 horses he's already beat? I hope he gets a chance to do it again in November, but to me him running in the Big Cap is the equivalent of Wise Dan running in another G2 mile race on the turf.

How the heck do you know if he'll handle the Meydan synth surface or not unless he tries? He'd be running against a bunch of turf horses probably trying the surface for the first time, and a few that have done well at Meydan, but against questionable competition.

4th place in the Dubai World Cup pays more than 1st place in the Big Cap. And the prestige that a Group 1 placing on synthetic would add to his stud value goes wayyy further than another win over the Santa Anita Dirt (unless that next win is in November).

I totally get that he probably wouldn't run again until July or August, but that's plenty of time to get fit for the Breeders Cup. I'm also one that seriously won't rip MMM or his connections if they were to branch out and they failed. Because they at least would've took the risk to take on the best in the world. Same for Wise Dan if he were to try going to Dubai for a mile turf race and he failed. Because they would've tried.

It's really cool that we get to see these 3 run in the Big Cap (and I'm excited to watch the race), but I still think Dubai is the better move.

Indian Charlie 03-06-2014 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FATPIANO (Post 968343)
VERY HAPPY, I have Midnight Hawk in WInstar Fantasy Derby, and was very afraid of Bayern:D:D

I think it's entirely possible that Kristo turns the tables on him.

Indian Charlie 03-06-2014 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 968375)
By the way,

I know I'm in the severe minority on this, but the competition in the Big Cap is likely to be tougher than the Dubai World Cup for Mucho Macho Man. If he loses Saturday his connections deserve to take crap for not shipping there.

I'm at work so if this starts debate, gimme a couple hours to reply.

I am going to let this one go, since it's been awhile since you made a post like this.

Indian Charlie 03-06-2014 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 968390)

4th place in the Dubai World Cup pays more than 1st place in the Big Cap. And the prestige that a Group 1 placing on synthetic would add to his stud value goes wayyy further than another win over the Santa Anita Dirt (unless that next win is in November).


It's really cool that we get to see these 3 run in the Big Cap (and I'm excited to watch the race), but I still think Dubai is the better move.

You are trolling.

pmayjr 03-07-2014 12:10 AM

I swear I'm not trolling.

But I totally get that I'm talking to a brick wall.

Seriously, what does he have to prove at Santa Anita before November? He's beaten both of the main competitors in that race over that surface in the biggest race in North America (Kentucky Derby included).

I love that these 3 are gonna race against each other on Saturday. How often do we get to see that? Big time horses either duck each other until the Breeders Cup (if they ever meet up) or they retire first. So it's awesome.

But it makes no sense to me... especially with the decision for MMM to stay in training and not go to stud after winning the Classic last year- that he not go for the big $$$? A synthetic win or good placing in Dubai does way more for him than the Big Cap.

Pat Cummings please join me on this lonely island lol

helicopter11 03-07-2014 12:25 AM

Schoolofhardrocks is the unknown horse. He may pull the upset. David Hofmans is a sneaky trainer

pmayjr 03-07-2014 12:32 AM

In the San Carlos, who is going with Big Macher on the front-end? If no one duels with him, I think he's classy enough to steal it.

theguarantee 03-07-2014 05:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 968374)
I totally agree. To be honest though, now that Bayern is out they might as well take a shot. He might be able to clunk up and hit the board again.

Bayern looked like a cinch to me. I thought Rprettyboyfloyd was the most intriguing alternative option. Maiden or not, he's only been beaten by quality. May appreciate the stretchout to two turns (hey - maybe he's a closing sprinter, I know)...and if you re-watch the San Vicente closely I think you'll be a bit intrigued (I was at least, we all watch races differently).

theguarantee 03-07-2014 06:01 AM

I guess I don't play Santa Anita enough. Can't seem to find this info -- does anyone know what races pk-4's and pk-6 will offer? Also, I know they are notoriously late on the morning lines but are they really still not out or am I blind?

Danzig 03-07-2014 06:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 968375)
By the way,

I know I'm in the severe minority on this, but the competition in the Big Cap is likely to be tougher than the Dubai World Cup for Mucho Macho Man. If he loses Saturday his connections deserve to take crap for not shipping there.

I'm at work so if this starts debate, gimme a couple hours to reply.

do you have a stake in the dubai world cup?


how do you reconcile this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 966404)
I really really really really really want you to be right. It's surreal to me that all the big timers are meeting for this race. What happened to every major horse ducking each other for the most part until November? I'm cheering for him to get back to the BC(and for Will Take Charge, Dude, etc), but I'm just really skeptical. Especially after an announced stud deal.

with you still kvetching about not going to dubai?

as for him having a boost to his stud resume with a win over synthetic (assuming he wins)...the move back to dirt in cali (and probably eventually all tracks again) completely belies any notion that synthetic ability is a bonus or that breeders will be looking for that when making a breeding decision.

for years people decried the big cap losing prestige (and the oaklawn handicap as well) because people chased the money halfway around the world.....i can't understand why you feel so strongly that would be the right move for this horse, especially knowing the overall successes, or lack thereof, for american horses since the surface change there.
competition is the key, and i'd imagine they are planning a campaign for horse of the year. a win here would be very significant for MMM. at dubai? not even close.
as for the purse there-money won is one thing, graded wins another. was HOY the last two years the top money earner?

pmayjr 03-07-2014 10:23 AM

Once again, he already has the biggest win he'll ever have over the SA surface. Last I checked, Keeneland, Arlington, Woodbine, GG, Ocala and some international tracks still use synthetic. If he does well over a synthetic surface, you could start thinking more internationally with the horse's stud potential than just as a son of Macho Uno that can only throw dirt winners.

You don't know unless you try...

Alabama Stakes 03-07-2014 10:32 AM

Lightning fast
 
got ashes with Ritvos sister on Wednesday. She says the big hoss is in fine fettle. He is right where he should be. After poor management of him at 3, they have figured out what is best. He loves it fast and hard and thats what he gets in Cali. He should never leave there. Dubai not on dirt....why would they even consider it.

ateamstupid 03-07-2014 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 968433)
Once again, he already has the biggest win he'll ever have over the SA surface. Last I checked, Keeneland, Arlington, Woodbine, GG, Ocala and some international tracks still use synthetic. If he does well over a synthetic surface, you could start thinking more internationally with the horse's stud potential than just as a son of Macho Uno that can only throw dirt winners.

You don't know unless you try...

Word! He should totally ship across the world to see if maybe his offspring could potentially win the Ben Ali or the Hanshin Cup.

NTamm1215 03-07-2014 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 968390)
but to me him running in the Big Cap is the equivalent of Wise Dan running in another G2 mile race on the turf.

Oh my God.

pmayjr 03-07-2014 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 968434)
got ashes with Ritvos sister on Wednesday. She says the big hoss is in fine fettle. He is right where he should be. After poor management of him at 3, they have figured out what is best. He loves it fast and hard and thats what he gets in Cali. He should never leave there. Dubai not on dirt....why would they even consider it.

why?
http://youtu.be/N9Q-JlJJRSA

This is statement is trolling. I'm not.
Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 968437)
Word! He should totally ship across the world to see if maybe his offspring could potentially win the Ben Ali or the Hanshin Cup.

Nick,

The Wise Dan analogy is a little strong. What I'm getting at, is you've already proven what you can do. Branch out. Expand. Take a risk. Try. I won't rip on the connections for failing if they try. A perfect example is African Story who is running tomorrow in Dubai. Last year, at a mile over synth he won everything. There was a synth mile race on Dubai World Cup race that he probably would've won with ease. But his connections decided to try the Dubai World Cup at a longer distance against some random American horse named Animal Kingdom. Didn't work out too well. But I give his connections credit for trying.

So horses can ship in from all other points in the world to Dubai, and they sometimes handle it, sometimes don't. But at least they're sporting about it. I'm not just talking about Europeans that have nowhere else to go during the winter. I'm saying South American, Australian, Asia, etc.

RockHardTen1985 03-07-2014 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 968393)
I think it's entirely possible that Kristo turns the tables on him.

He's not very good, and he's been a huge money burner.


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