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The point I was trying to make with the Falcons-Saints game is that partly due to the new turf surface the hometeam had a big advantage. And that's pretty much what happened on KY cup day. Every stakes race was won by a local trainer and every jockey outside of Mike Smith who won a stakes race rides at Turfway. Will this home field advantage last? Of course not. Through time the top trainers and horses will dominate on this surface just like they do on turf and dirt. |
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Its exactly why I won't name names of the trainers who have told me the same. Noone wants to be labeled as an opponent of whats supposedly so humane. As if running races on deeper cushioned deeper surfaced dirt tracks isn't humane. |
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Any truth to that? |
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If you stand at the rail and watch the horses come back you can see horses that obviously do not like to breathe the poly. They snort excessively -- almost like they inhaled an allergen or irritant. Sure, you see that to a limited extent on the dirt also. It smells hugely bad. I don't know if that makes certain horses uncomfortable. I'll be at Keeneland tomorrow. It will be interesting to check that out. If I can stay away from the hottie co-eds and the beer stand :) . |
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I'll be there Wednesday. Can't wait. |
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I respect your opinion, but my feeling and actual experience is that I have won more than my share of maiden races on the turf because others are too lazy to do the work that is required to learn more about turf sires. All the better for me that people continue that trend, as it will continue to insure better prices for me in the end. |
Personally I think that if you avoid wagering on Polytrack you are making a big mistake. One reason is that there are a lot of unknowns about the surface. Which means that the other players have no advantage on you. If you watch the races closely you may be able to identify trends before the betting public and sharp players do. For instance there was a day at Turfway last week where the track was favoring speed very strongly. The track was also playing much faster in spirnts versus routes the same day. That is powerful info because very few people are aware of the trend. Also traditional sheet numbers are not as accurate on polytrack because there are days where the outside paths are much superior to the rail, therefore giving better numbers to the winners than they should get based upon the old methodology.
The richest people in this world capitalize on chaos and being ahead of the curve. That opportunity clearly presents itself here. Maybe you should temper your bets where you are wagering a smaller % than you usually would, but to put your head in the sand and say that you wont wager on it, and maybe miss some tremendous opportunities, seems a little narrowminded. BTW- Regarding With a City, the connections of that horse have produced some stunning upsets in the past in big races with horses that never had shown that kind of form and never did again. Also the field was basically an allowance race from which very little has ever emerged out of. |
I already have picked against Circular Quay in this race. I think he has ability but I think the horses in this race have developed into very good 2 year olds. I think the talent in this field and the two turns will get Quay beat. The surface might play a little into the equation because it is indeed a different surface. I don't think the change in surface will be the culminating factor as to why Quay got beat.
Now, the question to you is this....will you admit that any horse can run over PolyTrack as long as Quay wins. Will you finally shut-up about the surface. heck if Quay can win on dirt and PolyTrack then surface should't matter. So if you want to call out the Poly supporters pre-race then you should be called out as well. |
I'm a huge fan of CQ, but I wouldn't dare touch him this weekend. I have no idea how he'll take to the Polytrack. I'm hoping he stays wide and runs evenly to finish 3rd or 4th. That way maybe his odds are a little better when he runs back on the real stuff in the BC Juvy!
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I just wish that there was more of a happy medium. There is no doubt that often very good or great dirt horses don't take to it at all and as the surface spreads to the tracks through the country, this will completely change the sport as well bred horses will struggle to find a surface to suceed on. It is not fair for horses like CQ and other great dirt horses not to have a chance on this foreign surface. HOwever, it does do wonders for the soundness of horses. Far fewer breakdowns and a horse can run more often with less strain. So it's hard to decide which is more important , many believe that the safety of horses is but to what extent - that it ruins the game or completely changes it? I'm not complaining right now though as I've had the biggest scores of my life by far betting against these good dirt horses that top trainers ship in for stakes, and sticking with the horses who train or have run on it already (With a City by far the biggest score of my life). Last week had tons of success in the stakes races with Ball Four and UD Ghetto.
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I don't see how PolyTrack is going to change the game at all or the breeding. Horses will adapt and so will breeding. The only thing that will change is the names of the horses. People will say--well we will never get to see how good a horse could be because he never ran on dirt. Well the same could be said by saying--well we never know how good a horse could be because he couldnt run on Poly. Not sure if Poly is here to stay or not, but it won't ruin the the sport at all.
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Man.. this topic is like spoiled milk.. you take a sniff, you know it's bad, but you still have to take a drink.
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Polytrack is going to kill us all at some point.
I have NO idea why any trainer with any intention of running his horse in a Breeders Cup race would prep him on a track made of rubber and glue. Repent |
I love Poly...There I said it!
CQ should and will win this race.. I don't care if it is run on gravel. He is bred for the distance..Has the best Trainer and Jockey combo in the field. He won his last with little effort and should have plenty left for a strong finish. I'm going to single him and make combo's with the 2-3-5:D |
Nobody likes Circular Quay more than I do.
He looks tons best tomorrow. That said, I will not bet him at any price because of the surface and I'll be looking later tonight for a modest bet-against-CQ wager in the race. If I don't find a nice "Poly-Lark" at a price, I'll pass. The thing is, if CQ loses without a VERY big excuse, I'm 100% certain it will be the poly. If he wins big, it's sort of inconclusive because, for all I know, the plastic moves him up. Personally, I'm hoping he loses in order to get a decent bet back number in the BCJ. As an aside, I have trademarked the term "Poly-Lark," ala Riley and "threepeat." |
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which is why I dont see why this crap is considered "good" for racing. races over the surface are anomaly. you cant take much of anything from them. we have bred thoroughbreds for 100s of years to run on turf or dirt. not rubber and glue. Im watching KEE right now and it makes me want to puke. for the first time since I started watching horse racing, Im not playing the KEE fall meet. that totally sucks. Repent |
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I think Round pen said that the trainers were using no stick cooking spray to keep it from sticking to the horses legs and feet. |
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I have never heard more bull from people that don't like the poly because it might be harder for them to handicap.
I expect the lies from Oracle, but everyone else surprises me. Poly is here for good. Will be at NY tracks before 2010. Get used to it. |
Please cite the lies. Shoot you don't even have the guts to post alone or reveal who you are. You and a bunch of other losers share id's and cower like the little tinkerbells that you are.
Losers. |
The Polytrack isnt getting stuck in the hooves of the horses. They have solved that non-issue.
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it's the same surface for all so the best horse will likely win.
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I am sick to my stomach right now. I can't describe to you how upset I am at Leparoux for his ride on Gray Suitor in the 10th. His stranglehold cost me the pick 3.
I didn't have any luck with Pat Day and it looks like Lep has come along to take his place. |
If they only have Poly then I'll bet the grass races I guess. F'ing Poly track. If they would've quit running the damn Nags that they run at Turfway they'd quit breaking them down. 5k Claimers running 15 to 20 times a year I wonder what will happen? Name some good horse flesh that brokedown at Turfway. crickets crickets churp chrup chrup........
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how funny?!!!!!
thoroughbreds are made to race, some for speed, some for distance. don't think i've ever seen one bred to only race on grass, or dirt for that matter. they only breed them to win. really, if you want to bitch, why shouldn't all racing be done on grass? don't think i've ever seen three foot deep sand spread throughout the farm. |
Here you go Oracle;
Futurity - Circular Quay is obviously the most accomplished and although Great Hunter certainly has been showing up on the big days (Horse Greeley is going to get a good look from me for the BC Juvie), I'm going to try to beat CQ just like everyone else, but I'm going with French Transition. Prior poly form aside, I love his works (on all surfaces mind you) and at this point he seems to be any sort of horse. Biancone has been very aggresive with him, which I take as a good sign. Giant Chieftan looked very promising on both of his turf starts (craziest move I've ever seen a horse make was his first race at the SPA) and he just recently broke his maiden in the slop of all things. Some picks on the rest of the card: Race 1 - Doctor Sam - lots of anticipated pace in here Good Ol Henry scares me....12 & 38 Beyers and then he gets a freak performance for him (on poly) after being vanned off? Race 3 - Student Council / Champ Safi - Small sample in today's card but stalkers seem to have the edge (Scipion will win to spite me) Race 6 - My Belonging / Ginger Punch Race 7 - Areyoutalkingtome - Most of the colts in here who have prior poly form didn't seem to change much from their dirt form & I think he has the edge |
OK Guys CQ will be somewhere in the line of 4/5 or less. LEt me tell you a couple of reasons why I think CQ is a bet Against.
A. I have seen to many young horses over the years that have a tremendous turn of foot Sprinting only to not show that same turn of foot around 2 turns and CQ kind of reminds me of that type of horse. B. I am not as sold as some of you guys who think CQ has a pedigree that will stretch out. And heres why 1st off CQ is out of Circle of LIfe who made 10 Lifetime Starts with a record of 10---3-1-2 of those 10 starts 4 were made running a route of ground her record in those races were 4----0-0-2 and Sprinting COL had a record of 5----3-1-0. C. Obviously Circle of Life was a much better Sprinter than she was a route horse, even though she was by Belong to Me who's off spring tend to do better at longer distances. Just Because CQ is by Thunder Gulch alot of people will assume that a route of ground should be no problem. And if you want to dig a little deeper in CQ pedigree CQ dam Circle of Life is out of Concentric who as of today has had 6 foals to race with only 1 of them winning a race around 2 turns. I am not going to say that by looking at a certain horses pedigree that what I have stated here about CQ will hold up all the time I just think there are enough Negatives in his pedigree to take a stand against at 3/5. By the way all the info I gathered here on CQ came from the APR. If you are a serious handicapper a Copy of the APR is a must. Good Luck RP By the way Oracle the was me that said some thing about the Cooking Spray:D |
CQ is going to be tough but the inside post is a concern. So i'm going to play the race lightly and use him, Birdbirdistheword and Street Sense in a few exotics and maybe a pick 3.
Street Sense might get a win wager out of me if he's 9-1 or higher. |
Of the last 7 stakes races run on the polytrack (Woodbine, Turfway & Keeneland) the lowest priced winner has paid $26.20 and the average winner has paid $43.40. This is getting to the polint where you have to toss all logic out the window when plyaing this stuff. I cant honestly see a reason to bet Quay tomorrow, but then again I dont see a reason to bet on this stuff.
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They are using cooking spray - it works pretty well actually. I'm pretty sure they came up with the idea in the winter. Supposedly, they weren't gonna have to bathe the horses b/c the poly wasn't dirt, but it was sticking to them anyway. Necessity is the mother of invention. There is truth to the rumor of hoof problems. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say "foot" problems. Horses are carrying heat in their feet where they hadn't before poly. I heard an interesting theory that it's carpet burn. We all got a few of those in college. The more you think about the make-up of poly, the more the theory makes sense-after all-it has carpet fibers in it. I also think the carpet burn theory might explain some horses not taking to poly. It might be "burning" their feet. Might also help explain why training on the surface and racing on the surface are two entirely different things. Another thing in this general area, and Oracle or anyone who's talked to trainers could verify this, the trainers really don't know how to shoe the horses for this surface. In this area its all trial and error. Worst part is, you can't establish a trainer pattern because each horse is so different on the stuff, no one trainer has figured it out for each individual horse. |
well, i'm a speed guy, here;s my order of rank:
Great Hunter Street Sense Circular Quay for all that's worth, considering they are 2YO's |
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