Total Invested: $400
Total Returned: $279
Net: -$121
$2 ROI: $1.40

Wednesday, July 24

Early Pick 4:

2nd: It's tough to get past the lack of speed in here. I'd love to pitch #4 Profetiza completely, because she hasn't run fast enough yet to win this and in her last race she got the benefit of an absurdly easy lead, but she will probably be loose against this field as well, so I have to use. I prefer #2 Montana Native though. She kept good company at Gulfstream and her last at CD was a good building block for the 2nd half of her season. Most importantly, she has the tactical speed to track Profetiza and get first run on the closers. #1 Parc Monceau made the first, wide move in the 5/26 BEL race that totally collapsed while the winner saved all the ground and rallied from further off. Hushion has gotten a chance to know her since and passes on a potential N1X to run her in this stake. Rosario opts for Montana Native, but Velazquez picks up the mount and Parc Monceau also has enough tactical speed not to be too far out of it. I respect #3 Tap Twenty One and #5 Flash Forward and will use them as C's, but I think the pace will work against them.

3rd: This is a tough race, with a lot of ways to go, but the pace in this 9-furlong test should be more taxing than the previous race's, with Belief System and Liberty Wing very likely to show speed and potential early foot coming from blinkered Town Hall and perhaps Beachview Too. #2 Nevada ran his best race since being claimed by Orseno two-back, albeit with a good setup, it's a setup he might get again today. The turf experiment didn't work out, but he's a major contender returning to dirt. #1 Town Hall drops in class off a wide-early-move-and-fade trip against some tough N1X 3YOs last out. He has to be used, but Rosario has to avoid getting sucked up into a speed duel. #3 Bedouin Now's in too good form for me to ignore him. His race two-back fits with these and he's versatile enough to adapt to different pace scenarios. I'll also use #5 Summer Sands, who drops off a layoff and a disappointing effort at PIM, but goes out for the ever-dangerous McLaughlin barn and will likely get a solid pace to run into.

4th: #6 Callana is the horse to beat off back-to-back 2nds against very nice horses Midnight Watch and Zip Up, but this field could have some good ones in it also at some decent prices. #3 Celtic Arch and #8 Industrial Policy are the obvious other horses. Celtic Arch was only beaten a length by Callana with a worse setup in that last race, while Industrial Policy took a while to switch leads in her turf debut but closed strongly once she did. I'm also interested in #5 Samiam for Weaver, who popped at 19-1 with a 2nd-time starter on Monday. Samiam was unnecessarily sent up on a fast pace in her two-turn debut and paid for it in the lane. She's eligible to improve a good deal with a more patient ride this time. #1 Go Baby Go Go jumped forward in her move to turf last summer and put in a big close in a race with a slow pace, running her last 1/4 in :22.63. The obvious issue is she hasn't been seen since (347 days) and Jim Baker is not good off layoffs, but she'll be a big price and could benefit if the pace gets hot between Shortbread Scotty, Forever Road, etc.

5th: I went over my thoughts on this race in the C/O discussion thread. #1 Work N Flirt is the horse to beat, but I like #7 Lady Halite. She did nothing but attend fast paces at 3, mostly going further. Her turf return race wasn't bad and now Kenneally reaches out to his main man Lezcano for her return to what she's likely supposed to do, sprint on the dirt. I'll also use #4 Mama Zee, who needs to improve some off her debut, but was caught wide in there and faces a slightly softer field today.

$.50 1,2,4/1,2,3,5/1,3,5,6,8/1,4,7 $90
$.50 2,3,5/1,2/6/1,7 $6
Race 4 $4 WIN 5

Sweet

$.50 Pick 4 pays $476.25
$4 win pays $21.60
Total $497.85

:D

Go gettum

Good Job Joey!

Nice work Joey!

Nice:tro:

nice job joey..it was just a matter of time

Great job, Joey! :$:

Nice work today. You talked me into Nevada in the third!! Keep it rolling

Well done Oey!

Thanks all! Let's keep it rolling tomorrow.

Good job Joey -- let's keep it goin'!

Nice work, congrats!

Total Invested: $500
Total Returned: $776.85
Net: +$276.85
$2 ROI: $3.11

After taking it on the chin Sunday and Monday, it was satisfying to convert on some good opinions yesterday and get solidly back in the black heading into the teeth of Week Two. Profetiza proved to be a good play-against in the first leg and though I got lucky when heavy chalk Town Hall blew the far turn in the 3rd, it's still about having the horse to benefit from such fortune. Overlaid Nevada and trusty George Weaver helped boost the potential payout and Mama Zee took advantage of a fast pace to close the deal in the last leg. Finding success at Saratoga is all about avoiding starts and stops, so let's dig in to Thursday's interesting card and build some momentum.

The bookend legs of this sequence will have heavily favored and imposing Pletcher firsters, but with the 3rd looking like a scramble, you need only beat one of them to produce a worthwhile return.

2nd: #1 Corfu brings a Barrett's March sales-topping $675,000 purchase price and a super best-of-43 half-mile from the gate Friday to the table. It's entirely reasonable to think he blasts out of the gate and never looks back. He does, however, draw the rail in a 5-furlong dash, so his margin for error at the start is slim. I'm interested in two others, particularly #2 Aarons Orient. The modestly bred bay sold for 15 times his sire's stud fee after putting up a :10 furlong at OBS April and I'm intrigued by his worktab. Asmussen has never been the type to let his horses fly in the mornings, but take a look at this one's three gate breezes: 6/19 4f in :47.80 (4th of 46), 6/26 4f in :47.20 (1st of 22), 7/15 5f in 1:00.20 (5th of 18). Fast works on the page are much more meaningful if they're uncharacteristic for the trainer and that fits here. #6 Pure Sensation goes out for Clement, who's known much more for his work with 2YO turf routers 1st out than 2YO dirt sprinters, but it's not as if he's incapable in these spots with the right horse, and Pure Sensation may be that. By the brilliant Zensational, son of Unbridled's Song, he's out of multiple stakes winning NJ-bred Pure Disco. Mike Welsch gave Pure Sensation rave reviews for his pre-meet Time Trial win. He's value at anything near his 12-1 M/L price. #5 Crescent is most likely a runner too. He's out of the fast and precocious Grade 1 placed sprinter Lovely Isle and shows some quick breezes. Like most Mott firsters in these spots though, he'll probably need a race.

3rd: Though I'll use her defensively, I'm against the likely favorite in here, #4 She's Coal Fired. After an OK 2nd in her Churchill debut, she challenged Yes Liz in her next start for a 1/4 mile before completely throwing in the towel. Wesley Ward's 2YOs usually show what they're going to show early on and don't get better with more racing, so the idea that she'll not only return to her debut but produce the improvement likely necessary to win this is not a good betting proposition, especially as the chalk. I prefer two of the firsters. #2 Thundering Gale looks dangerous. Kenneally is 11-for-35 ($2.24 ROI) with 2YOs 1st time out in maiden claiming dirt sprints and this filly is a full sister to GSP sprinter Knights Cross (98 BSF top). Being a homebred by a $2,000 sire, the fact that she debuts for a tag isn't the negative it would be for some other horses. #6 Friends Pro is out of a productive dam and reportedly looked very good in her 7/15 gate work. #5 Icing On the Cake is eligible to improve a lot adding Lasix 2nd time out for Ian Wilkes. #1 Chase My Tail broke last and was steadied early in her debut, then rushed up after the eventual winner before fading in the lane. It could be a different ballgame with a clean break, but there's also the chance she's not that good.

4th: Familiar NY-bred stakes fillies meet up going 7f. I like #1 Beautiful But Blue, even though she's coming off four straight losses against some of these horses. Her 2nd race off the layoff was a much improved effort. She was part of a fast pace from which the frontrunner finished last, beaten 22 3/4 and the other chaser was 4th, beaten 6. She was headed at the 1/8 pole by Miss Valentine but still battled gamely to only lose by a half-length and I think the cutback, plus the return to Saratoga, where her two best performances came, will help her turn the tables. #5 Willet is the other horse I want. She was terrible in her comeback race, but any of her last three races before the layoff can win this and obviously if she runs anything close to her Iroquois, they're all running for 2nd. I think it's a positive that the barn reaches out to Rosario as well. I don't want #2 Clear Pasaj, who took advantage of a dull Beautiful But Blue to win the Dancing Renee on a soft pace. I'll use the consistent #3 Miss Valentine as a B, but I think if either Beautiful But Blue or Willet run their A race, she won't be good enough to win.

5th: This looks like the race Pletcher is more likely to win. $325,000 OBS March purchase and Stopchargingmaria workmate #6 Our Amazing Rose is posted well outside and doesn't run up against many good 1st-out barns, with two Albertranis, a Contessa and a Shug in the race. The only one that looks interesting is Trombetta firster Jerry Love, by win-early sire Not for Love and a full sister to stakes-winning sprinter Akronism. Her drills have been as consistent as a metronome and include several five-furlong breezes, so she should be ready to go 1st out. #5 Zip On got bet 1st out, made a fairly easy lead and gave it up in the stretch in a slow race.

$.50 1,2,6/1,2,4,5,6/1,3,5/4,6 $45
$1.50 1,2,6/2,6/1,5/6 $18
$1 1/1,2,4,5,6/1,3,5/6 $15
Race 5 $8 DBL 6/7,8 $16
Race 5 $3 DBL 4/7,8 $6

Not a good idea trying to beat Todd and Clear Pasaj once again benefited from a dull Beautiful But Blue. Should've gone after late sequence instead. On to tomorrow.

Total Invested: $600
Total Returned: $776.85
Net: +$176.85
$2 ROI: $2.59

Friday, July 26

Really fascinating card today. One deep, competitive race after another and both Pick 4 sequences look like they'll pay well, but I'll stick with the early one, as it looks slightly easier to handle.

2nd: Tough race where cases can be made for almost anyone. #10 I Jus Wana Hav Fun looks like the speed of the speed and the horse to beat from the outside and takes a big drop in class for Scherer after dueling with stakes-bound Uno Duo in her last start. If she can run back to her most recent FG races, she'll win. She's my A. #9 Tanglewood Tale chased two sharp speedballs in her last two in Classic Point and Sing Dixie Sing and can win with her good race. #6 Seven Dreams is a consistent filly who shows up with her race no matter what barn she's in and is fast enough to win. #5 Revealing Moment isn't good enough on paper, but is lightly-raced and in her only start with Lasix, she ran up against Princess of Sylmar over the AQU inner. They're my B's. My C's will be #1 Voodoo Tales and #4 Group Therapy, both of whom stepped forward in their maiden-breakers last time out, but must improve again to win this.

3rd: I was extremely impressed with the race #1 Brabbham ran last out, doing all the dirty work on a fast pace and just kept going, narrowly getting run down by two perfect-trip closers late. He's been given time to recover from that big effort and is working well; the horse to beat. #5 Sliver and Onions ran well in his last, was the last survivor of the pace battle and beaten late by a very promising Michelle Nevin firster. #2 King of Broadway took a lot of money in his debut on Derby day at CD, broke poorly, came with a decent close and figures to improve for Mott with more distance. He's 12-for-41 with a $2.23 ROI with 2nd time out dirt maidens going sprint-to-route. #6 Howie's Tiz was a very good 2nd to Curlin entrant Bad Hombre two back, then caught a speed-favoring track last time out. He's a full to Rush Now, who was much better going longer and I've been a fan of this horse since his debut late-running 3rd to Honorable Dillon last summer.

4th: #1A Read the Research is clearly the horse to beat after attending a fast pace going longer in a NY-bred stake last out. Simply put, if she runs back to her last race, she's going to win. I'll use her with one B and one C. If Castellano doesn't hard-send, #2 Currency Union could be the beneficiary with a switch to a higher % and much more aggressive rider. Her last two efforts aren't good enough, but hopefully she's rounding back to that 5/3 race, which would give her a shot against the favorite. #3 Nothing But Air beat pretty much nothing but air in her debut, but exploded away in the stretch and appears to be working well for her return. The issues are obviously the much stiffer competition and the layoff, as well as closing into what figures to be a moderate pace.

5th: #1 The Lady Says Yes is a must bet-against in here, who's now lost three times as the favorite and another at 5-2 and had absolutely no excuse in her return race. Her connections are sure to make her overbet and if she wins, that's fine, but she's a horse you're supposed to play against. The other major factor in this race is the absurdly high figures the horses coming out of that 7/7 BEL race have gotten:

Runner - Finish - Beaten Lengths - Previous Top BSF - 7/7 BSF - Subsequent BSF (if applicable)
Golden Cheetah 1st -- 53 - 77
Chrissy Girl 2nd neck 63 - 76
Eddy's Time 3rd 3/4 58 - 75
Raven Rise 4th 1 54 - 75
You So Smart 5th 1 3/4 29 - 73
Transplendid 6th 2 1/4 62 - 72 - 47
Love Is Key Kaz 7th 3 1/4 58 - 70
Life's a Stage 8th 3 1/2 58 - 69
Familyofroses 9th 4 1/2 65 - 67
Ampa's Girl 10th 6 1/2 60 - 63
See See See 11th 13 42 - 48

If you believe the Beyers, every single horse ran a new top in that race and the first eight horses all ran 11+ points better than they ever have before. I'll be docking 10 points from every horse who comes out of that race, which you could argue might be a little conservative.

I'm interested in #8 Sakonnet Point, who Jonathan Sheppard was likely just getting a race into 1st out at DEL. He saw fit to ship her to NY to run against statebreds, she returns with his customary five-furlong turf breeze and picks up Rosie, who has tremendous numbers when riding for this barn. The others I want are #3 Sophie's Turn, who took a lot of money for Serpe 1st out and made a decent close after a poor start and #4 Coriander, who needs to take a small step forward but is eligible to do so 2nd off the bench in a race she can potentially control up front. I'll use the two from the 7/7 race who had the toughest trips in there. #10 Familyofroses was steadied to last at the break, got stuck behind a slow pace and made a laughably wide move on the far turn before understandably flattening out. She deserves another shot, but the pace may play against her again today. #2 You So Smart was closer to that slow pace, but lost a lot of ground from the 10-hole, got shut off in midstretch and had nowhere to run in the final furlong. She draws better in here and could carve out a good stalking trip in behind Coriander.

$.50 5,6,9,10/1,2,5,6/1,2/2,3,4,8,10 $80
$.50 1,4,10/1,6/1/2,3,4,8 $12
$.50 10/1,6/3/2,3,4,8 $4
$.50 10/1,6/1/1 $1
Race 5 $3 WIN 8

Argh. Currency Union almost saw it through at a ridiculous 18-1. The positive rider switch to an underrated jockey angle strikes again.

Ouch. Bad beat.

That was tough, sorry!

Sigh. Was a half-length and a head away from a meet-making score. :(

Yes agreed that was unreal brutal...everyone i heard said the #1 was a definite play against. Great analysis by you overall tho, i appreaciate your efforts. Tough game.:zz:

Joey, the Sakonnet Point beat cost me a fortune as well. Great opinions today, keep up the great work!

So, that was a crappy beat. If 7-1 Sakonnet Point holds on in the 5th, I'm looking at a $748 Pick 4, which would have been clutch, but if 18-1 Currency Union holds in the 4th also, I'm looking at a $6k-7k meet-making Pick 4 payout. Instead, both horses got nailed in the final yards and I got squadouche. It's frustrating to say the least, but as a daily handicapper, you have to take solace in the fact that as long as you're all around it like that and your opinions are good, you're going to cash more tickets than you tear.

Saturday, July 27

Late Pick 4:

8th: #1 Plainview is a remarkable horse on his best day. He routinely sets very fast paces on the grass and keeps going and has been a terrific claim by Greg DiPrima. He had no business in the Manhattan, but it was worth a shot with a sharp horse and now he cuts back to his regular element. He has to shake clear of #10 Sarava's Dancer, but I'm pretty sure he'll be in front going into the 1st turn and he's always tough to catch once that happens. #2 Sachem Spirit has several competitive turf races and though he comes into this off a 203-day layoff, he's gotten a positive switch to Clement's barn and is versatile enough to adapt to different pace scenarios. #3 Eternal Ruler ran a career-top BSF and tied his top TG last out and has since returned to post a best-of-50 4-furlong local turf breeze (the next fastest work was by Teen Pauline, who ran .93 slower). #4 Majestic Raffy returned with a really good effort two back, then got stuck behind a slow pace last out and gets a big rider switch to Castellano today. #5 Kris Royal looked like a real runner with his local maiden-breaker last summer, rallying with ease from off tepid fractions to score. He hasn't quite developed into the star he looked like that day, but his last was OK and he goes out 2nd off the bench for the always dangerous Charlie Lopresti. I've had enough of #8 Film Shot, who's coming off a no-excuse loss at 3-2 when loose on a soft pace. His best races have come close to the pace and if he tries to chase Plainview today, I don't think he'll be around at the finish.

9th: The awesome rivalry between #2 Stephanie's Kitten and #5 Centre Court is renewed in this small but high-quality Diana and it's tough to go against them. I'll use #1 Dream Peace as a B, since she's the only one who has competitive numbers with the top two, but it seems like her best races come on moist ground.

10th: This edition of the Jim Dandy looks like a two-horse race on paper. #5 Palace Malice would be the biggest beneficiary of a moderate pace, while #8 Mylute would be most likely to capitalize on fast fractions. There are a few others who are developing into useful 2nd half 3YOs, but none I think can yet beat either of the top two on their best.

11th: #10 Christiesborntorun looks like the clear horse to beat. He's dropping steeply in class, but he's the fastest horse in the race and Jason Servis is a powerhouse in these low-to-mid claiming turf sprints. He also gets a positive rider switch to Lezcano. I usually don't like horses like #9 Shmooz Talker who have been in good form on dirt now seemingly randomly switching to turf, but he's the rare sort who can and has run close to equally well on both surfaces; he's too logical for me to dismiss. #3 Writingonthewall, dropping for Repole and #6 Yield Bogey, who has multiple competitive turf sprints, are others I have to use. I'll also take #5 Brown Indian going out for the ATM that is George Weaver. He wasn't as good as Yield Bogey last time, but he has competitive races last year and I think he'll step forward in his 2nd start off the layoff. #11 Shotgun City is a little interesting just because of the barn switch from Persaud to Maker, but it's generally very tough to win 1st time on turf against a field of hard-knocking, experienced turf sprinters like this group.

$.50 1,2,3,4,5/1,2,5/5,8/3,5,6,9,10 $75
$1 1,2,3,4,5/2,5/5,8/10 $20
Race 8 $5 WIN 4

Good luck Joe.

Sunday, July 28

The early Pick 4 looks just about impossible, so let's take a look at the late sequence.

8th: It's hard to envision a scenario where this pace doesn't get very fast for the level. Time On My Hands is cutting back, but she's always had sprint speed, Colorme Kitten was close to a very fast pace last out, Pumpkin Lane adds blinkers, Midnight Rider has been involved in quick paces her whole career, Sharon Spaghetti rushed up and set a fast first 1/4 after breaking slowly last out, Honorable Pass and Maid for Joe are both consistently involved on the front end. So I'm left with the two favorites, #7 Rodinia and #12 Top Tier Lass, to benefit from that fast pace. This is the kind of race where I usually like to take a first-time turf horse, but I just can't make a case for any of the pedigrees of the horses switching surfaces. Top Tier Lass's last race wins this and her career top came sprinting on the Saratoga turf. The concern is that she lost at 8-5 in her return race dropping for Pletcher, but she was 3-wide and chased an OK horse on a slow pace. She was claimed by sharp connections out of that effort. Rodinia gets a positive barn switch to Servis and should get the good setup she needs to get it done at this distance. I'll use #1 Time On My Hands and #11 Maid for Joe as C's.

9th: Nothing clever here either. #1 Midnight Taboo opts for an N1X instead of Friday's Curlin after reportedly going toe-to-toe with Pletcher superstar in the making Cross Traffic in the mornings. #4 Cary Street completely turned his life around since adding blinkers, following up a $10k N3L claiming win at Calder with two very good runner-ups behind stakes 3-year-olds Power Broker and Perfect Title. He also doesn't face a lot of other early speed in here. #7 Norumbega adds Lasix, already has competitive races and may be better going two turns.

10th: There are four major players in this really good edition of the Amsterdam, two speeds and two closers. #2 Forty Tales is probably a touch better than #3 Declan's Warrior, but he also had a better trip than that one in the Woody Stephens, keeping him inside and forcing him to alter course late. #1 Mentor Cane was incredible in his 7/6 return race, attending and then setting a fast pace and still drawing away to win eased up. He comes into this with a sharp Wednesday half-mile breeze. NJ-bred #6 Rainbow Heir is undefeated and very fast, the issue is whether or not a speed duel develops between him, Mentor Cane and Salutos Amigos, as well as maybe Cat Five Hurricane.

11th: #9 Spin Chief (A) ran pretty well in his debut for a horse who broke several lengths slow and was barely in the picture turning for home, flying late to get up for fourth and nearly grab third. The first two finishers that day each came back to win with double-digit BSF improvements and a clean break makes Spin Chief the horse to beat today. #3 Thingamajigger (A) is cutting back, dropping in class and may find himself setting a slow pace. #1 Magnificentmillion (A) took a lot of money for Rudy/Dubb in his debut, has done no running in two starts, but drops in class and they may have tipped their hand a bit with his good half-mile breeze on Wednesday. #4 My Teddy Bear (B) put in his best dirt race since his debut in a troubled trip last out, also drops. #7 Without Regard (B) was dreadful as the 3-2 favorite last out, but was claimed by Jacobson out of there and will win this if he can get him back to anything close to his debut. Again, will his magic be the same at Saratoga? The jury's still out.

$.50 7,12/1,4,7/1,2,3,6/1,3,4,7,9 $60
$.50 1,11/1,4,7/2,3/1,3,9 $18
$.50 7,12/1,4,7/2,3/1,3,9 $18
Race 11 $4 WIN 9

Of course, you mean #9 in race 11, not 10.

Correct, thanks.

Squadouche... A real Brooklyn word. Good Luck Joe, I hope you nail a huge p4 this meet! KP

Taking a break from the Pick 4's today, will try to make a small profit and regroup for Week 3.

4th: Tough to see #3 Big Screen losing. He's in the best form of anyone in the race and he figures to be loose on an easy lead. The distance shouldn't be a problem, as he ran back-to-back big figure two-turn races 2/17 at GP and 3/13 on AQU inner. He'll be 4-5 or so and should have plenty left to hold off the quality closers in Cease and Tech Fall.

5th: #9 River Boss is the horse to beat, but he's dropping in for a tag off the win and it's not as though he's run way faster than these on his best day. I like #7 Bold Forest, who broke poorly and made a huge close two back as the only horse to make up significant ground in the stretch and just missed, then had a wide trip in behind a slow pace last time out, making the first move and flattening out late. I'll also use #5 My Golden Road, who's dropping in class and whose turf figs are already competitive with this group.

Race 4
$40 DBL 3/7,9
$20 DBL 3/5

Nice effort out of Big Screen, Albertrani. :rolleyes:

Absolutely mind boggling, allowed to walk with the 1a and folds like a tent and the 1a some how gets caught. :zz:

Wasn't able to rebound from Friday's tough beat the way I'd hoped and it resulted in an aggravating weekend. Even though it feels like I've been getting destroyed, I'm only one halfway decent ticket away from being back in the black with 3/4 of the meet remaining, so let's get back into it.

Amount Invested: $1,000
Amount Returned: $776.85
Net: -$223.15
$2 ROI: $1.55

Wednesday, July 31

Early Pick 4:

2nd: I'm not going beyond the two favorites. #2 Hot Stones was pounded to 7-5 in her debut for a barn that usually doesn't have them cranked 1st out, narrowly lost in a quick come-home effort, putting up a 74 BSF that would make her tough in here. #4 Gloria Victoria attended a quick pace in her debut, made the lead at the 1/8 pole before fading late. Cuts back a furlong and should sit a good trip stalking outside of Carla Sweetrevenge.

3rd: #3 Caxambas Pass the one to beat off a good, wide closing 3rd going shorter two back, didn't embarrass herself in dirt try, now switches back to her preferred surface. #7 Rare Penny is bred to love grass, was entered for turf before last race was rained off, put in a useful 5th in the slop, should move forward considerably 2nd out for red-hot Stall. #5 Doctor Vickie Lynn has suffered several wide trips in her recent PPs and her figures still stack up well with the favorite's. #6 Perfect Package was not good last out, setting a clear, easy pace and still folding in the stretch, but perhaps she's more fit with that race under her belt and the sharp Hushion decides not to cut her back. She should be setting or stalking another slow pace and her BSFs two and three-back make her a player. #4 Neolexia has trouble getting out of the gate, but has a very good closing punch and the barn switches to Velazquez, maybe in an effort to get her to break more alertly.

4th: I don't understand why #2 Thescreenisred should be favored against these. It is Chad Brown off a layoff with a turf horse, always dangerous, but it's not as though she ran way faster than this group last year. #1 Margaret Lillian ran her best career race going this distance on this course, could be speed of the speed from the inside. #5 Barrel of Joy was not good in her route try last out, but her two turf sprints prior to that make her a major player. I'll also throw in #4 Rakin' Gold, who has always shown ability on turf and showed up with her best effort to date last out, albeit while setting a slow pace.

5th: #7 Old Harbor has an experience edge over most of these, running a decent 2nd at MTH against open company and shows a good 3-furlong blowout for this. #5 Lavender Road went for $95k at OBS April, 12 2/3 times her sire's stud fee, after working a furlong in :10.2, has done nothing in the mornings to suggest that was a fluke, should be ready to go in her debut for former Linda Rice assistant Abigail Adsit. #4 Kicken Livi is bred to be decent, has worked regularly in the mornings with barn's OK sprinter Liquid Lunch, goes out for former Pletcher client Anstu and former Pletcher assistant Dilger. #3 Canal Six shows some solid works for Morley and picks up Rosario, but it's hard to look past Noble Causeway's 3-for-98 stats with 1st time starters.

$.50 2,4/3,4,5,6,7/1,2,4,5/3,4,5,7 $80
$.50 2,4/3,5,7/1,2,5/5,7 $18
$.50 2/3,7/1,5/5 $2

Thursday, August 1

Early Pick 4:

3rd: It's not often you'll hear this, but Eugene Reiff has the clear horse to beat in this race. #5 Perfect Danger's last two races were big efforts, particularly his last one on 7/6, when he matched strides early with Mentor Cane, who returned to set the pace in a speed-laden Amsterdam. Needless to say, there are no comparable pace rivals in this spot, so he should have little problem making the lead and will be tough to reel in cutting back to six panels. #1 Apex has multiple figures that would make him competitive, so he should be used defensively, but he's been a pretty big disappointment since since his back-to-back placings behind Palace Malice and Micromanage last summer and he was awful 12 days ago in the Miraculousmo MSW. #2 Deadicated Deal was way better than him and finally got back to his good debut race from 4/27, when he was a closing 3rd at 20-1. If Perfect Danger gets pressured more than expected, he's most likely to benefit and will be a square price.

4th: Here we have another scenario like last Friday's 5th race wherein several contenders come out of an aberrantly high BSF race, this time the 7th from closing day at BEL. The winner was a firster for Matthew Peebles who went off at 47-1 and supposedly ran a 76 to win. Thnxtomyuncle ran 5 points higher than his top in running 2nd and, to quote Andy Serling, he's the type who would find a way to run 2nd to me in a horse suit. One More Chief was 3rd and supposedly ran a 73 in his debut for Mike Shevy. Here are the three horses behind them who'd started before:

Horse Finish Beaten Lengths Previous Top 7/14 BSF
Horatio 4th 1 58 73
Hooked Forever 5th 1 1/2 59 72
Saltine Warrior 6th 2 1/2 48 69

Based on that, #5 Native Singer is a deserving favorite, as his figures for his 7/4 race are easily legitimized when looking at the surrounding numbers of the horses who ran behind him. That being said, he's no superstar and there are a few price opportunities in here. It doesn't look like it on paper, but #6 Mr. G. Zee jumped forward significantly in his last start, making a wide close into a modest pace to be 2nd and galloping out well past the winner. He could get a more contentious pace to run at today and note that Schettino hikes him back into straight NY-bred maidens after offering him for a tag last out. When we last saw #3 Privatize on dirt, he was dueling through a crazy fast pace on the AQU Inner 3/16 in a race that totally collapsed. Street Lord, part of that early battle, returned to beat Native Singer and improve his BSF 17 points in his next start. Big Breesy sandwiched his pace-affected 11 BSF with a 40 and a 66 (turf), Dark Roast surrounded his 36 with a 59 and 64, Joe Mooch followed his 52 up with a 58 and two starts later ran a 70 when wiring the field Mr. G. Zee comes out of. Privatize has a 113-day layoff to contend with, but he gets to go one turn for the first time and blew out 3/8 in :35 Monday. I'll also use #2 One More Chief, as even though I think his debut fig is 10-12 points too high, it was still a good effort, as he took pace pressure on the rail every step of the way and still stayed on well late. I'll use #1 Thnxtomyuncle as a C in case he gets a pace meltdown and Mr. G. Zee isn't good enough.

5th: Another legitimate favorite here in #8 Rapid Burn, already faster than these and taking a big class drop for George Weaver, so I won't go too deep trying to beat him. #5 Smart Power wasn't bad in his local race last year, got laid up for 324 days after that, but returned with an OK 4th in a CNL MSW 7/13. Now the trainer sees fit to ship him up here after that effort and he shows an eye-popping :58.77 turf breeze around dogs from last Friday, a full two seconds (!) faster than the next quickest work at the distance. #4 Trusted Choice deserves another chance on the turf, being by Langfuhr out of a Giant's Causeway mare. He chased MGSP Film Shot in his lone grass try, wasn't seen for 465 days after that, now makes his 3rd start off that long layoff and stretches out after two foundation sprints. #1 Buckwheat drops for Maker/Ramsey/Rosario after setting the pace against much tougher, has a right to improve as a lightly-raced 3YO. #3 Tapulous has competitive dirt figures, but his lone turf race was his worst effort and his breeding is all dirt. Contessa scratched out of a main track spot where he likely would've gone favored, so maybe he knows something we don't, but this colt has had a lot of chances and he's likely to face pace pressure from Buckwheat and Fullcontrol if Maragh decides to send. I'll use him and #10 Carjon Carjon, returning off a long layoff for the sneaky McPeek, as C's.

6th: Not much to say here. There are three who can win: #1 Night Maneuver, #2 Saratoga Snacks and #3 Saginaw. Not a great betting race, but should be a fun battle between some high-quality NY-breds; obviously the home team is Gary Sciacca's Tale of the Cat ridgling.

$.50 1,2,5/2,3,5,6/1,4,5,8/1,2,3 $72
$.50 5/1,3,5,6/8/1,2,3 $6
$.50 5/3,5,6/3,10/1,2,3 $9
$1 5/3,5,6/8/1,2,3 $9
Race 3 $4 EXA 5/2

LOL, Perfect Danger vet scratch. Mr. G. Zee and Smart Power also out. Will have to adjust.

Fields are significantly shorter in the Early Pick 4 now, so I'll get involved in the late sequence as well.

Race 3
$.50 PK4 1,2,6/1,2,3,5/1,4,8/2,3 $36
$1 PK4 1,2,6/2,3,5/8/2,3 $18

Race 8
$.50 PK4 ALL/3,5/1,4,5,7/9 $40
$.50 PK4 1,3,4,10/5/5/1,6,9 $6

? race 3 not race 2 ?

Thx Dave. Corrected.

Saginaw is such a cool horse. Tough trip for Saratoga Snacks. Wish I had gotten a chance to post my ticket later, as the money Confrontation took in the 3rd against that field would've made me include him.

On that note, now that I have time, I'll post an updated late Pick 4 after the 7th.

Race 8
$.50 PK4 1,3,5,6,7,10,11,12/5/1,4,5,7/6,9 $32
$.50 PK4 1/3,5,7/5/6,9 $3
$2.50 PK4 1/5/5/6,9 $5
$1 PK4 1/5/1,4,7/6,9 $6

Fiddlers Afleet is the clear horse to beat in the 8th, but he's taking a suspicious drop and the race becomes wide-open if he doesn't show up. Have a feeling the Chad Brown German-bred in the 9th will be the goods.